February 2012 Market

[68Camaro]

First (placeholder) post for February 2012, content to follow:

Jan 2012 thread is here) viewtopic.php?f=17&t=10836

(Dec 2011 thread is here) viewtopic.php?f=17&t=10063
Post on pro/cons/procedure for taking possession of physical stock certificates
- viewtopic.php?f=17&t=10063&p=104059#p104013

(Nov 2011 thread is here) viewtopic.php?f=17&t=9307
(Oct 2011 thread is here) viewtopic.php?f=17&t=8831

[68Camaro]

There are several camps with regard to PM market watching. I'm not wholly committed to any theory, but as one who has done data reduction for most of his life, I have a difficult time looking at the gold and silver daily charts for month after month and not see a number of clearly defined repetitive patterns. It would be astonishing for these to be coincidence, so there is a real cause (or causes) behind it. It (or they) is/are purposeful. The why of it, for me, is speculation, because I know nothing first-hand about what is going on behind the scenes. Hardly anyone does, and those that do aren't talking. Some would say it is just a "normal" market. A zero-sum game. Speculators moving money in and out. Sure doesn't look like that to me. If you disagree, I'm not going to waste the time on an argument about something which is just opinion.

Regardless of the why, what does it look like? Market manipulation. There could be several reasons for the why of that, but the markets are clearly running in patterns. For the past several weeks we've seen PMs creeping up slowly, but 10 steps forward, 9 steps back. There appear to be specific daily caps on the amount they are allowed to increase, and increases on Dow decrease days not normally "allowed". Amount of rise per day ia normally carefully controlled. Every once in awhile "they" have to give ground, but they do so grudgingly, and set a new line in the sand, and the rear-guard action starts again. When a hiccup occurs in the larger market, they use that as an excuse to not just move PMs down proportionally to other resources, but x2 or x3 or x5, whatever they can get away with. Lately gold has been "capped" at about 1750, and every time it threatens to move out of the current trading range, "they" blast it back in short, quick moves, pushing it down to 1730, 1720, or lower if they can. Each time it moves back up. They can blast it down in one hour, and it takes 2, 3, 4 days to move back up. Until a major buying push kicks in, again, and they have to give ground to the next line in the sand. The line for silver has been 34 lately. When it threatens to move past 34 for any length of time, or risks hitting 35, "they" push the price down to the mid 33's.

"They" can't continue this forever. That's why gold and silver, looked at long-term, continue to trend up. They are just trying to slow the pace, and push the idea that gold and silver cannot be trusted. "Stay with fiat" they say. Unfortunately most are still listening to the Kramer's of the financial world.

The gurus of PMs? They have been right. For 10 years straight they have been right. They have predicted the patterns. Long-term, short-term. They have described the next stage. Been proven right. Described the next stage. Been proven right. Etc. They don't claim to be able to be specific on timing, especially short-term timing. But their pattens, and trends - notably, spectacularly correct. And it isn't just the charting gurus - there are fundamentals behind those patterns that make sense. I don't hero-worship them, but I do pay attention to these guys.

[agmoose]

Excellent viewpoint, and not just cause I agree. I've been following and trying to compare charts and moves myself for months to try to do better at timing larger buys. I was very lucky that we had a dip the same weekend the FUN show was in Orlando last month, as I had some FRNs specifically saved for that show. I sorta think we may see some 32 action next week, purely my opinion, and I plan to buy some at that level if we do. Honestly, I'm ok with the slow trend up, it allows me to buy more before we hit 40 again.

[Engineer]

I agree as well. Even just looking at the daily Kitco charts, it becomes obvious over time that peaks and valleys tend to happen at the same times of day, and are often repeated for a number of days. Then there will be an opposite day, where the charts will follow the same trading schedule, but the peaks and valleys will be inverted from the prior days.

There's also something to be said about watching for tells like mini parabolic curves signaling the start or end of the pops & drops, but they don't seem to be quite as reliable as watching what seem to be timed algo trades.

[68Camaro]

Many Euro country downgrades and negative outlooks overnight... Any changes in the bond markets? Nope. Why not? Hmmm, no data available in any of the headlines from the MSM (of course), but one has to believe that it's because the bonds aren't being bought by investors. What we have in Europe is now the same situation as in US; Europe is "printing" money, and buying its own debt. Rather, the US is printing more money and loaning it to Europe so they can buy their debt.

Heading on Yahoo Finance this morning is "Spain easily sells $7.16 bln in short-term debt". When sovereign entities buy that debt then - of course it is "easily" sold. What a crock...

[68Camaro]

Make no mistake about it - there is a real "battle" going on in the market. On some days there are casual skirmishes. Other days are retreat days, or march days, or re-fuel days. Today, especially, it was a full-up campaign - all about the bears trying to "hold the line" at Gold 1750-ish and Silver 35-ish. The bulls pushed up strongly a few days ago with surprising strength. The bears since have been actively pushing down, and the bulls - this time - haven't retreated after a few shots, or a small skirmish. This was all out war today, and - so far - the bears have been unable to push gold down more than a couple bucks at a time, after a 40 buck surge. The line is holding at 1770 and change for gold, and 35 and change for silver.

If these lines continue to hold for balance of today, and next week starts off with another surge, watch out - big run coming. If the resistance (or other factors) causes weariness for the buyers, we may see it sink back down to previous week values, for a short time.

Look at gold below for the day. It looks more dramatic at a closer-up scale, but the battle is obvious, and is raging between 1770 and 1785, right now.

gold.gif (17.08 KiB) Viewed 555 times

[68Camaro]

Pressure is ON for a BIG run-up in both gold and silver. The shorts are having trouble containing the pressure; record shorting is failing to keep a lid on the prices. Time to buy is NOW, or don't complain about "waiting".

[68Camaro]

The market does love a pile-on, and like sharks smelling blood in the water, other investment interests without a wit of care about PMs overall except as a possible score, have now piled on. They smell the weakness, see the potential for profit from the large number of shorts, and there is a magnifying affect underway. This is not strictly a "world is going to crap so let's buy PMs" play. Gold is going up, true, but much more slowly. The added amplitude in silver (vs gold) is about the sharks seeing opportunity, so the price is going up fast, and (depending on circumstances) could fall equally as fast at some point if some sustaining effect doesn't come in to back this up. This could be a repeat of 2011, with a similar drop at some point, so hang on, and make your decisions accordingly. We could break 50 on this upside, but if so, it will drop back - possibly hard again (20%-40%) before continuing upward again.

[beauanderos]

it will be interesting to see what they try tomorrow.

[68Camaro]

What they have tried, is a MASSIVE, MASSIVE short attack, which really didn't push things back all that far, yet. Gold temporarily below 1750 to 1730 - but I'd bet it comes back just as fast. Silver temporarily to 36, but again - I'd but it bounces right back. We'll see soon...

[68Camaro]

No manipulation? Come on, folks. Nothing else trades like this. It's even predictable, to a fair extent. From 37.5 to 34 - 10% - in minutes, three distinct stairsteps.

silver.gif (15.95 KiB) Viewed 483 times

[68Camaro]

So, no doubt about it - major smackdown, interestingly right as the Bernank testifies. It's like a warning shot across the bows, a horse head in the bed. Or at least that's how I envision him thinking. "I speak, and PMs crumble." Beat chest...

Well Bernank, I don't think so. Your minions have some power to manipulate the paper market, in the near term, but silver is already more than 3% off the temporary bottom, and gold at 2%, and both climbing again. You're going to have to do it again tomorrow, or the next day. You ready for that? How many times? Eventually the market will crush you. It's coming, and even before then, it will continue to climb, even if you slow it.

[IdahoCopper]

The Federal Reserve began in 1913 with a 100-year charter.

Unless it is renewed by Congress, it will cease to exist in 2013.

I can't think of a better reason to elect Ron Paul for president than that. He would have the bully pulpit and the veto to kill it dead.

Tell your friends to tell all their friends about the above facts.

[68Camaro]

Unfortunately, as far as the most recent smackdown, success breeds confidence, so if TPTB believe they've got PMs on the run again, they may try to push them down further in an attempt to redefine the technicals, and create another 3-4 month delay. (Putting on my "evil" hat, it'd be what I would do if I was TPTB, and had enough gas left to do it.)

[68Camaro]

Smackdown continues, with some success, combined with the "Dow rule", which is that PMs are not allowed to advance on a day when the Dow is down....

[68Camaro]

Interesting market day - on no new news, Dow allowed to drop, and PM crush continues. The PM crush has now shaken out the weak hands of the latest entrants, which have helped change the momentum again.

The ridiculous articles in the financial press today set new standards for pablum... The best one that I read I can't find at the moment. But another - "Market tanks, should you buy the dip...?" A 1.5% stock blip - and in a controlled market to boot - is a tanking market? Hmmm...

So the paper market has been knocked back a few weeks to the late Jan thru late Feb trading range for silver, and a bit below that time range (though above the previous low-to-mid 1600 range) for gold.

This latest test was a genuine test of the local peaks, but the paper price was again knocked back to keep the price growth rate low. I suspect some slow price growth over time will be tolerated by TPTB, but I don't think the big push up will happen until either AFTER the dollar really collapses (or, caveat, the COMEX collapses or is superceded by a new exchange that focuses on physical product, should that be allowed to happen). The collapse of the USD is - sadly - inevitable (it's incredible that it isn't just widely accepted, but this is a perfect example of a modern-day crisis of belief, where people just refuse to believe in the obvious because it goes against their norm). When? It seems impossible for it to last more than another 3 years, and perhaps as little as 3 months. PM prices - as measured in USD - may shudder a bit during the actual collapse. But - again - what is critically important in that near-term during the collapse is assets measured in ounces, not fiat currency.

[theo]

Every time PM prices retreat, some physical gold and silver transfers to strong hands and is, thus, removed from the market. I know because I'm buying some of it as many of you are. With each manipulation the paper prices become increasingly illegitimate.

[68Camaro]

Quote of the day from Bill Fleckenstein, on PM investing... "I mean if it was really easy and required no effort, no conviction or any of that stuff, then everyone would have gigantic amounts of money.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/ ... _Gold.html