Realcent.org

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -forecast/

This is one of the sources for polling I follow. The left loves this guy, he is one of those saying obama would win back when few thought he could. Currently 51 hillary, 49 trump. They had hillary at around 77% likely to win as recently as july 12th. I still think its trumps election to loose.

Silverholic wrote:

Thogey wrote:Throw out a number. I'll walk to the other end of the trailer to take a crap.

Hey thogey I thought it was alextg that wanted to bet but if you want to take the same bet I'm game... What about 5 Oz of silver whatever form (I'd be willing to do up to 10oz as well). Loser pays shipping. Or since this is a "cent" forum what about a sfrb full of wheaties? Up to you. Thanks.

I'll throw 10 oz down on Trump. Loser pays winner. Post "it's a bet" and we have one

ASE"s? We will agree on the type of silver as well before it's a bet.

London has Trump @ 7/4 now. This is a good deal.

Hillary's @ 4/9 how's that for a spread? Not a lot of trump money goin down.

I would love to get 7/4 trump. That number to me is amazing. But I am the worst gambler on planet Earth.

Thogey wrote:

Silverholic wrote:

Thogey wrote:Throw out a number. I'll walk to the other end of the trailer to take a crap.

Hey thogey I thought it was alextg that wanted to bet but if you want to take the same bet I'm game... What about 5 Oz of silver whatever form (I'd be willing to do up to 10oz as well). Loser pays shipping. Or since this is a "cent" forum what about a sfrb full of wheaties? Up to you. Thanks.

I'll throw 10 oz down on Trump. Loser pays winner. Post "it's a bet" and we have one

ASE"s? We will agree on the type of silver as well before it's a bet.

London has Trump @ 7/4 now. This is a good deal.

Can we do generics? I'm putting up 5 mixed bars and 5 bu generic peace rounds. You can do 10 oz of whatever? Say "it's a bet" and may the "not the worst candidate" win...

It's a bet, 10 oz generics.

AlexTG wrote:Hope you guys can make it happen. Nobody I know will take my even odds trump wins bet.

I'll throw a piece at ya. What's your prop?

Thogey wrote:It's a bet, 10 oz generics.

Thanks, gives me something to root for like betting on the Super Bowl when you don't care for either teams.

OK, so now I too have a stake in the election. I'm in it about 300 at this point.

I have room for some more action.

Thogey wrote:

AlexTG wrote:Hope you guys can make it happen. Nobody I know will take my even odds trump wins bet.

I'll throw a piece at ya. What's your prop?

---OFFER CLOSED--- Found a tacker

What I wrote may have been miss interpreted. None of my friends were willing to take my straight up $50 bet that Trump wins.

I'd be willing to put 3 generics up against someone's if there are any takers. Loser pays shipping.

Bet is,

3 1-oz Silver rounds that Trump Wins - My Pick
Vs.
3 1-oz Silver rounds that Hillary Wins - Takers Pick

Bet is only good for users with feedback. Other wise a middle man must be used.

Chief wrote:

Treetop wrote:Been watching polls for weeks. Hillary has no chance in the world imo. Especially after wikileaks showed us the DNC has been purposely trying to keep sanders down...

Don't forget, there are more emails to be leaked by wikileaks. I hope the Democratic Party burns to the ground. I'm a registered democrat.

I got curious about this last night. This is interesting. The wikileaks guy seems convinced the next batch of emails will lead to hillary being arrested. Apparently the clinton foundation is involved. He also said that hillary was the one who pushed the issue in libya, and armed ISIS while being warned not to do so out of the pentagon. She is on record under oath saying she didnt know about these shipments but apparently she is the entire reason they happened. Then we have stories like this hinting at issues with the clinton foundation and the kremlin. So just hat might be these illegal things she did involving the clinton foundation be? No idea but we will find out soon enough.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-clinton ... 1469997195

There is no precedence for this I am aware of. I dont think it would be easy for the democrats to replace her, and she is already loosing most polls atm so clear proof she is a criminal could be more then enough to turn it into a landslide.

It does not matter what evidence they have against Hillary. They could release thousands of emails implicating her in all kinds of illegal activities she will never be arrested or convicted on anything. I just wish someone that has copies of the 33000 emails she deleted would release those. But they are probably waiting until after she becomes president to use those against her to blackmail her.

NDFarmer wrote:It does not matter what evidence they have against Hillary. They could release thousands of emails implicating her in all kinds of illegal activities she will never be arrested or convicted on anything. I just wish someone that has copies of the 33000 emails she deleted would release those. But they are probably waiting until after she becomes president to use those against her to blackmail her.

I heard somewhere that the NSA has the emails. I would not doubt it, but no one will ever see them.

PS I am helping two people get signed up to vote. I think that if you do not want Hillary in the White House (and the Chinese in the Lincoln Bedroom) then we need to pull a play out of their playbook. We need to help like minded people get to the polls.

knibloe wrote:

NDFarmer wrote:It does not matter what evidence they have against Hillary. They could release thousands of emails implicating her in all kinds of illegal activities she will never be arrested or convicted on anything. I just wish someone that has copies of the 33000 emails she deleted would release those. But they are probably waiting until after she becomes president to use those against her to blackmail her.

I heard somewhere that the NSA has the emails. I would not doubt it, but no one will ever see them.

William Binney former NSA official who helped build the the NSA data mining operations, but became a whistleblower when he saw they were taking out the safeguards that limited government abuse of these spying techniques.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gan4OOtTP-U

This guy is making it harder every day. Maybe he doesn't want it! Is that why he is so stupid on what he is saying or posting...

hobo finds wrote:This guy is making it harder every day. Maybe he doesn't want it! Is that why he is so stupid on what he is saying or posting...

Like maybe the entire reason he's running is to make sure Hillary gets elected? His connections to the Clintons sparked that theory long ago. That if he somehow got the nomination he would tank it, and otherwise he would run as an independent to siphon votes from whoever did get the GOP nod. Stranger things have happened...

Republicans think Trump might quit — so they’re scrambling to find a replacement: ABC News

Republican officials are so angry at Donald Trump and his imploding campaign that they’re considering replacing him at the top of the ticket just two weeks after nominating him.

The GOP nominee angered party officials by refusing to endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan and Sen. John McCain in their primary races, repeatedly insulting a Gold Star family, joking about receiving a Purple Heart and removing a noisy baby from a campaign rally — all in about four hours Tuesday afternoon.

Jon Karl, the chief White House correspondent for ABC News, reported Wednesday morning that Republican officials were scrambling to plan for the possibility that Trump might suddenly quit the presidential race.

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/republi ... -abc-news/

If our media was vaguely honest you two would have been saying the same about hillary instead of trump. Wikileaks has now shown us a french company hillary has been on the board of "lafarge" actively supports the same ISIS that hillarys helped create and still gives large sums to the clinton foundation as well. Have you been watching polls? Several sources have changed their results after the fact to support hillary later. Have never seen anything like it. The media never even covered how empty hillaries convention had become, or that they seemingly filled it with paid people. This is all youd have heard of for days if it had happened at trumps convention. Could you imagine how the media would react if trump was under investigation and his wife was seen in an illegal meeting with the persons job it is to decide whether or not to indict trump? Youd never hear the end of it, it would be held up as proof he was corrupt etc etc.

As for the emails a few mentioned above. They dont really matter if wikileaks has what it claims and no reason to doubt it being that they keep releasing related info on her. It was amazing how the media created the story that our government was implicating russia in these hacks because they never in fact did so.

The idea trump is prepping to drop out is a bizarre claim. The last few days hes given some of his best and most nuanced speeches to date in key battleground states. This thing with paul ryan and mccain for instance, total nonsense. Those running for president are never expected to endorse others in this way being that they might loose their own support for doing so. Its bad for the party. In fact if you followed politics in the past youll likely remember other times commentators would highlight those in the party the person running for president was distancing themselves from. It is obvious why trump wouldnt support them, he doesnt want to be associated with RINOs. The idea hed be called out for this though is totally new and counter to any other election cycle Ive followed. Clearly many republicans are still not happy about him.

Meanwhile hillary has known associates telling us she does in fact support TPP while she campaigns against it. How would the media relate to trum doing the same thing? Hillary has easily as much or more and definitely more dangerous things coming out against her in the last few weeks the difference is how the media relates to each of them.

Back to wikileaks though. If assange is being honest and he has been to date about such things then this will likely decide the election. The real source of the hacks is probably our own government btw. It was funny how the media related to this, barely covering the now proven bias even mocking bernies religion a bit, but they focus on claims russia is involved. Do you think theyd have cared the source whatsoever if trump had been proven to steal the republican nomination? Democracy is on fire and all they care about is who theoretically might have done the hacking when we literally have no clue, and leaders in the intelligence community tell us we do not know.

I expect many of you to be shocked myself.

There is a solution to this mess of an election. However, it is illegal to discuss it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-3 ... weaks-poll

This covers some of what has happened with polling. You can verify from reuters own sites. He denies claims he was planning to drop out. This is all hilary has left. This is it, we either keep selling ourselves out or elect a narcissistic to try to divert our course a bit.

IdahoCopper wrote:There is a solution to this mess of an election. However, it is illegal to discuss it.

Wow. Bold move.

Still following the polls. Something definitely seems weird. Atleast two major and respected polling places provably changed their methods strongly favoring hillary. A few others show her with a sharp lead as well, may or may not have been biased. Several also show statistical ties. Also of note is that polls were coming out regularly up until the point trump was dominating, and now when polling in past elections is generally coming out more often it seems severely limited in comparison.

I find this especially weird because when tracking comments on left leaning sites I see a whole bunch of democrats saying they used to support bernie and either wont vote now or will vote trump or a third party. Im not seeing the same phenomena on the right, referring to righties who said they used to support trump but will vote for hillary or a third party. No doubt such people exist but Im not seeing them in comments sections. As many sites as I cover some days Id expect to see a few. So the idea hillary got this massive boost from the convention makes no sense. Her rallies are tiny, while trumps are multiples larger. In some polls as much as 22% of bernie supporters (he got 45% of democrat votes) will vote trump and a larger amount arent voting at all or going for a third party. Trump meanwhile brought in a whole bunch of people who dont vote often, millions in fact. Which is why the republican nomination process had more voters then ever, lots of those people rarely vote or just now registered. Bernie had the same effect but lots of them are not with hillary so from what Ive seen it should be cancelled out.

Really cant say for sure what is going on, but it seems very shady to be sure. Wiki leaks is still claiming the best is yet to come. I find it interesting how many interviews its founder assange is doing as of late. I think he is trying to get the wikileaks name out there before the big leak.

The media coverage is stunningly biased towards the liberal establishment. Trump hasn't helped himself by having a poor filter; as one commentator today noted - if only 1% of Trump's statements are said in a controversial manner the media will spend 80% of their coverage of him discussing that 1% as though those comprised the bulk of his comments. He needs to stop giving them that fodder, and I'm sure his handlers are crushing that home for him. Can he keep that focus (of the last several days) up, or will he just not be able to help himself? Time will tell.

On the opposite side, Clinton is still having a tough time flinging the boogers of the email/foundation scandals from her fingers, despite having a loaded administration and media behind her. I will not be surprised, as you note TT, if more stuff surfaces - perhaps in the last two weeks. Look for late October to be an interesting time.

The polls are weird and I don't trust them. I think we're doing to see Brexit type polling issues. Even if the pollsters are on the up and up (and I'm not sure they aren't in the back pocket of the Clintons) I t think people are far more pro-Trump than they will admit to - but they don't like to admit it in public or to a pollster, and they may even have trouble admitting it to themselves when they aren't actually casting a ballot. Those on the fence will swing back and forth in the wind with every negative media headline about Trumps latest "bigoted statement", but in the end I think they will vote against the establishment/Clinton.

Trump is attracting big crowds. But so did Bernie. And so did Ron Paul. And it didn't result in victory for those guys. Romney really didn't get people fired up or attract big crowds, but got the nomination. Mob-like crowds...wait...sorry..."voter enthusiasm" isn't a substitute for being well-connected and having establishment support. I do think Trump gained a lot of establishment support, but that's not enough to sway A LOT of republican voters who abhor him.

I'm not seeing yard signs and banners like I've seen in the previous two election cycles. I've seen two Trump signs and zero Hillary signs. By this time in 2012 there were at least a dozen Obama and Romney signs in the same area. Mostly crickets in 2016. Have seen a fair number of Bernie bumper stickers. In the last two cycles I had signs and banners up along a very busy state route for Ron Paul and then Gary Johnson. I haven't put anything up this year.

Between family, coworkers, and neighbors, there are about a dozen people close to me (geographically and interactually) who vote regularly. Most in their 40s and 50s, and about four who are 70+. One democrat and the rest republicans. The democrat has been for Hillary since 2007. Not a single one of the republicans likes Trump. In fact I had unprovoked conversations with several of them 10+ months ago when there will still a dozen candidates running for the GOP nomination, in which several of these GOP voters specifically brought up how much they disliked Trump. At least two think he is working for Hillary. Most of them think he is a liberal and taking the party in the wrong direction. I get the sense that two or three of them will probably hold their nose and vote for Trump just to oppose Hillary, but at least a half dozen of them are saying they will vote third party or not at all. In my little corner of the world, that's more than 50% of Romney voters who will not be voting for Trump.

TL;DR - in an informal survey of family, coworkers, and neighbors, more than half of 2012 Romney voters say they will not be voting for Trump.

Thats a good point 68. Theres a couple younger guys I sometimes talk to I used to play an online game with. It was awhile before Id openly admit I was voting trump. I got railroaded by a few of them over it. Later though two of them told me they were going trump as well. They cant talk about it with alot of their friends though because its taboo. Mostly guys in their 20s.

Also heard that caitlin jenner, the male athlete who became a women said he had more trouble coming out as a women then as a republican.

@natsb88- officially trumps support among republicans has ranged from about 79-85%. For whatever polling is worth, which this election seems less then the past. This is among "likely" voters though and trump brought alot of new blood that not all these polls consider likely voters. Several polls acknowledge this in the fine print. Bernie had the same effect but lots of them arent happy atm.

Voter enthusiasm does mean alot though. Especially for the right which is slightly outnumbered. It might make this election in fact, because it seems to be so close. In historical terms neither candidate is really riling up their base, and it might just come down to which side is showing up on election day the least.

Lets just see what comes from wikileaks though. Looking at what wkileaks has hinted at, Id guess there were email discussions about what amount to bribes through the clinton foundation to affect political change in the US. If it is something like that she will bleed out support, if its something simpler like proof she sent classified emails from her server it might not make a big difference.

Also I dont think trump is terribly hurt by lack of party establishment support nearly as much as the way he talks, and the fact he is a moderate. I have to say though, trump as a moderate might be exactly what the republicans need, not necessarily to win this election but future ones. With a backbone of a strong military, good for business etc and a few other republican mindsets the right can start inspiring the younger generation perhaps. As it stands its a dying breed. The right might have to embrace social programs and making them actually work and be funded within budgets. 60% of the population doesnt align with EITHER party and this stat is rising fast actually. The days of democrats versus republicans is in the starting phase of going away, and will in time be re defined anyway. The first party to do it will have the extreme advantage imo going into the future.