Copper extraction (NONE LEFT)

[Larkin]

Very interesting question I would like to pose to the members here:

At what point (in time) will the copper cents be removed from circulation based upon current hoarding? By point in time I mean 1-2 years, 3 years, 5 etc. By being removed from circulation I mean similar to where we are with wheat heads today. I understand that not all copper will ever be removed but you get my drift. I have in the past seen the mint numbers for copper cents and had a total. I will continue to work on this question and report back. The biggest issue is at what rate copper cents are being removed. Any input would be appreciated. Just on the surface, I would say within the next 2-3 years.

[Finder]

Interesting question. Hope we find out a good estimate.

If most people are finding about 20% avg, then how many are still in circulation and how many are searching, how much are they searching?

Not sure there is a way to know that.

I would guess it greatly depends on the rate of rise in the value of copper too.

[exbingoaddict]

Mike at Market Harmony provides some data via his website:

http://marketharmony.net/uploads/pennies_in_circulation.pdf

Check it out.

[MikeP2020]

Based on historical data all the way back to 1982, we loose an average of 2.6 percentage points drop per year due to zinc injections, lost coins, collected coins and so on. At this rate as long as the status quo remains the same, copper will be circulating for another 9-10 years until they become as rare as wheats are today.

[Finder]

So do y'all think the average return will drop over those next 10 years?

2% per year from the 20% now?

Is everyone else averaging about 20% copper?

[Economist]

It would be really nice to know the national average of copper. I'm a little more optimistic than Finder, placing my estimate at 25%. This is based on being on this forum for a long time and sorting pennies in 3 different US regions.

I myself am very fortunate to be getting in the upper 20s% in eastern Indiana.

[68Camaro]

I think 20% is a reasonable current nominal but I think mine is actually 18%, not counting unknowing people dumping saved copper over the holidays.

I think it is inevitable that yields will drop, and I think the approaches that this group has taken to harvesting Cu will drop them even faster over the next couple of years than the historic trends would indicate. I suspect that by 2012 10% will be a common take, and at some point it will become increasingly difficult to make money at it, unless the price of copper skyrockets.

[CardsNCoins]

After 30 boxes searched so far, I'm still finding 28% to 30% steady here in N.Y.C.

[Country]

I've been tracking some of the COPPER posts in the Handsorting thread that I maintain. So far this month, 10 posters are averaging 26.3% COPPER. Tracking the COPPER stats for September to December 2010, showed a national average about 20%. Since I had only 21 posters that really is not enough to give an exacting nationwide perspective. Some trends can be seen: those posters in the SouthWest and Southern states are extracting COPPER in the 15%-20% range, those in the mid-Atlantic around 20%-25%, while others are still averaging 30%. My guess would be that regional areas that have a bias towards PM extraction (more sorters) will get the lowest percentages. I don't see anyone averaging less than 15% at this time, but a 32% average (quite good) is the highest.

[68Camaro]

I'm in Central FL, so that's consistent with your 15-20% estimate for South/Southwest.

(Thought I had set the location in my profile, but it hasn't shown - I'll look at that again.)

[cesariojpn]

You also have to figure, people have hidden hoards of coins that they don't know about until months or YEARS later. Once found, they go straight to the bank or spent. And didn't one US mint statistic claim that the average US Citizen has maybe a few hundred coins "lost" in their house in some shape or form?