Recession and Coin Supply

[DC_Penny_Guy]

If we're headed into a recession, it seems like that ought to be good news for our hobby, no? What do you folks think?

Historically, when there's a recession, people break open their piggy banks and take their coins to the local bank for deposit. This huge influx in the coin supply then causes the US mint to not need to make many new coins, and you can see the incredibly low mintage numbers in the early 1930's (great depression) and in 2009 (great recession).

I'd think this should mean a few things:

1) Huge decrease in the number of uncirculated boxes of pennies. Over the past year, roughly 50% of the penny boxes I get from my banks end up being shiny uncirculated zinc. If that number plunges, it'll make my hobby so much easier.

2) A fair amount of copper being put back into circulation. Americans have their coin jars that have been sitting for years and years, and those jars are filled with coins that accumulated during time when the proportion of copper in circulation was higher than it is today.

3) Some oldies get put back into circulation. Some of those coin jars in people's houses are actually quite old! Not just old wheaties... I'd expect silver pickers to have a higher proportion of hits if we hit a serious recession.

Anyways, "silver lining" in every cloud...

[shinnosuke]

I like the way you think. Data! We need data and many here will provide it for us.

[hobo finds]

I think people dumped out there jars during covid. Home with nothing to do but stuff around the house. People also took on projects and this hidden cash would help towards things needing to be done around there places they lived. And the big lie about no coin supply that was going on. Lots of people used
there state quarter holder coins and did laundry.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

I picked up 12 boxes of pennies today, $300 face, and all 12 of them were circulated! That's a first for me. Every time I've picked up $200 or more, there have been at least 2 boxes of uncirculated pennies, and usually more.

Perhaps the winds are shifting?

[Recyclersteve]

I heard a stat that about 1/3 of all people die by age 70. Also, men typically die earlier than women. Since the vast majority of coin collectors are men, this means quite a few coins could be going to banks in the next five years or so.

Along those lines I just went through $34.50 in pennies and found 58.0% coppers! It was probably more like 70%, but I didn’t keep anything ugly.

[JadeDragon]

Against all people born
Men still alive 72,915/100,000 at Age 70
Women still alive 82,950/100,000 at Age 70
Men still alive at 67,732/100,000 at Age 73 (about 2/3rds)

Source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

Are we starting to see a spike in baby boomer deaths yet? Is the average age of a coin collector rising? The population is aging but should we be buying deathcare stocks based on demographics?

Since old people always die,

[Recyclersteve]

Thanks for the more specific numbers and the link! I just heard the figure I used from someone who didn’t give a source, so I consider your data more valid.

[JadeDragon]

Your comment peaked my interest so I went searching. For the American population I’d guess the Social Security people have pretty accurate actuarial tables. Other populations will have somewhat different numbers. For example I’ve long understood Canadians live on average 3 years longer than Americans. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion ... e16147153/. This seems to be related mostly to universal healthcare plus I’m guessing the effects of persistence in not dying for stupid reasons? There is a greater social safety net in Canada so fewer people in abject poverty, which tends to be deadly.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

As an American, I'm totally on board with the notion that we tend to insist on dying for stupid reasons.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

My weekly pickup! $500 in quarters, plus $200 in pennies. You can't tell from the photo, but once again, all 8 penny boxes are circulated. Something is definitely afoot! Something beneficial to us copperholics.

20221026_125636.jpg (902.15 KiB) Viewed 2584 times

[cwgii]

Well it is not happening in Tucson. Box of pennies new, nickels new. Dimes new. About to take a break.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

One of my boxes had north of 30 wheaties, with a fair share of pre-1940. Haven't found a pre-1940 with a mint mark in a long time, but this past week we found two indian head pennies! A holed 1903, and an 1897 in decent shape.

[sparechange]

Great find on the Indian heads. Not so common these days and to find two is nice.

[Silver4face]

Even the holed Indian has some value. I would say 50 cents. My first ever Indian Head cent (1890) was holed. I still have it today.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

I got 9 boxes of pennies this week. 8 of them were circulated.

I've been getting so many boxes lately, and I've had so much work and family stuff going on, I've built up over $1,000 in unopened penny boxes stashed around the house. Might make for a good youtube video when I eventually get around to searching them?

[Tourney64]

When I was actively sorting half dollars, I would see an increase in silver just before Christmas till about February. People cash in their coins to pay for Christmas and the bills afterwards.
Lots of people today are not using cash, but credit cards to make ends meet, so I think coin supply will be hurt by this.

[thecrazyone]

I heard a stat that about 1/3 of all people die by age 70. Also, men typically die earlier than women.

One of the biggest reason for this is iron content in the blood.Women have a period every month, which forces their bodies to make new blood. Men don't, obviously. That said, donate blood, and you will extend your life!

[DC_Penny_Guy]

Well, last week was a bummer. I picked up 8 penny boxes, and all 8 of them were shiny new 2022 pennies, fresh from the mint

Interestingly, I did what I always do when I purchase uncirculated pennies from one of my source banks. I brought them to a Wells Fargo branch to deposit, since WF has always had no problem accepting coin rolls. This time, Wells Fargo told me they wouldn't accept future large deposits of penny boxes.

Apparently, they have to unwrap the pennies and put them into those $50 plastic bags that come out of coin machines. Barbaric!

[Silver4face]

You might want to check these boxes before you pay for them. Also try different banks if they are nearby or if you are in the area. I have never left the bank with a box of new pennies. A few rolls yes, but never a box full.

[TXSTARFIRE]

I would guess that the bank ordered the boxes of cents for him so you couldn't really refuse them if you expected them to order more for you. I would guess that most banks don't have 8 boxes on hand.

[Silver4face]

Good point, but he didn't say if all 8 came from one bank. Also, I can't imagine ONE bank parting with EIGHT BOXES during these items. Just goes to show that the so called coin shortage is a total crock of sheet.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

Yes, all 8 boxes came from the same bank... I have one bank that orders $100 per week for me (they have a small vault, so they won't go higher than that), and another that orders $200 per week for me. They called yesterday to say this week's order of 8 penny boxes is waiting for me.

The coin shortage thing IS a crock of sheet, as you say. Both banks still have signs taped to the glass that say "yada yada coin shortage we maybe can't give you all the coins you want yada yada" but they'll order me all the boxes I want.

Every once in a while, the bank will order $200 in pennies for me, and they'll tell me that their provider would only supply $100. OK, fine, whatever, I'll take what I can get.

And when it comes to shiny new penny boxes fresh from the mint, it would be very unwise for me to refuse to purchase them. Forcing the bank that ordered them to turn around and return them would probably sour them on ordering boxes for me. I just keep them in my car until I stop by a different branch that accepts coin deposits. Usually Wells Fargo, they're great about coins.

I'll let you all know how the 8 boxes look this week.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

All 8 boxes were circulated last week. Perhaps my luck has returned!

[Silver4face]

That's good to hear. You should be able to harvest 3-4 thousand copper.

[DC_Penny_Guy]

That's about right for my area. I do sometimes get good boxes that can crack 20% copper. But 15% is more common.

However, I've also picked up a big load of Pennies from a bank in Delaware that were circulated, and those were bizarrely only 2% - 4% copper. That stunk!

My kids haven't been searching as many penny boxes in the new year, so I'm building up supply faster than we sort it. One kid is insisting that he wants to search nickels, not pennies, so I need to place an order for those...