"Raptor Fund"

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"Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:40 pm

this is my little fantasy fund, buying March silver, standing for delivery .....1500 contracts, 7.5 mln toz...in this fantasy, i have a net of 500 mln usd...looking for 3-5 other traders, who have futures knowledge and/or trade the physical.....let me pick the 5, IF ANYBODY wants to play...becoz this will just cover the March contract...and if you play, keep the daily trade to 50 cars, compensation is 10% of the pool we build during 'scalping'.....and when we sell or redeliever when silver sits at 50-60....

so if you paper buy the 50, do it in 1's, 2's, 5 and 10's....whatever, but please keep them in 5 and 10 lots (2, 2, 1 for instance)......like say you buy 10, 10 and 10.......and then you get a 1.00 higher on the day, dump 20 and let me mark 10 as what we want for delivery....figger the scalp money up, put it in the kitty for whacking up at the end of March...wouldnt it be nice this was real?....buy an undervalued asset and face down a bunch of bank hirelings, hang them out to dry?

watch, this will be fun, because IN REAL LIFE, it would be fun to call these guys bluff...and then it would be even MORE fun, to tie everybody up in court.....coz you know they'd try to weasel.

it would be fun AND it would be prudent business, to buy an asset at an adjusted 600 year LOW.....do i see any hands?...dont worry, i wont be offended if you dont wanna play, and please dont be offended if we reach the 5 guy limit early....i'm starting on Monday, $26 will hold, and if not, i'm wrong.

have a great weekend, neil- CEO Raptor Fund (lmao)
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby doug » Fri Feb 22, 2013 8:49 pm

Neil,

You are a trouble maker. :twisted:

My kind of guy.

I am a trouble maker too. :lol:

I would love to force their hands on the market. :thumbup:

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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 6:54 am

alright, i'm on my own......serious, no hard feelings....i mean that, most of you men, got business, families, ....i'm a libertine. i can wake up, and decide, "you know, i dont have to do ANYTHING today!"...thats a luxury.....but i am, going to paper trade the Raptor Fund, knowing good and well, how futures trading works....and knowing, that since this is make believe....things might be a little different, if there was some insane git, with 300 mln USD, rampaging around in the March 13 silver contract...wholly bent on taking 7.5 mln toz of silver.

the last time i traded futures, was May of 2002....crude oil...i was so RIGHT, but wrong. Got blown out in spectacular fashion, overtrading in a global market, my self esteem pounded, appetite for risk, destroyed.

i will not fudge, what i do on paper.....the window is closed. (lmao) i'm on my own...i know you guys are rooting for me, and thats all that counts!

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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby IdahoCopper » Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:58 am

I'm interested in this, but I've never traded commodities like you have. The jargon of traders is is completely foreign to me. If I had $300m to burn, I'd let you take the lead with it to do this project. Wait -- let me check my lotto ticket for last night - - Rats! Nothing, again!
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 9:19 am

IdahoCopper wrote:I'm interested in this, but I've never traded commodities like you have. The jargon of traders is is completely foreign to me. If I had $300m to burn, I'd let you take the lead with it to do this project. Wait -- let me check my lotto ticket for last night - - Rats! Nothing, again!


hahhaha...i'm laughing too....the other day at the Village Mkt, i thru in for a three dollars....one prize is 12 mln (net 5mil...that would be immediate family getting houses, 1 mil in silver/w the appropriate underground facility to hold this stash, new truck, etc) and also a $70 mln prize (35 mil net---all of the above, but the silver is a 5 mln dlr purchase, and i buy any acreage i can find with good timber in a 20 mile radius)

yeh i know...dream on...no worries, what the Lord gave me, i am SO content in...you are too, i know that!

with the Raptor Fund?...no worries, its paper trading, but its hopefully going to fun for you guys to watch.....lets see if i still got it going on....my gut tells me, these guys not only dont want to HAVE deliever 7.5 mln toz...maybe they dont have it.

Gosh it would be fun to watch bank traders scurry and worry....even more fun to scream at them over the phone...then MORE FUN to have lawyers sending registered mail love notes on my behalf...and then the COURT DATES!!! talk about entertainment?...oh man, i'd book a residence at the Carlyle!!! here:
http://www.rosewoodhotels.com/en/carlyle/accommodations/extended_stays/

and everynight, spent at Mets Stadium, or the puddle jumper to Fenway, all the while i get to torture bank traders caught short...i think i;d even put a line out to a documentary film maker to travel with....JUST FUN!!

"oh, they'd try and whack ya"...i'm aware...thats what the security team is for...all ex RM Brit commando's...what a party!!!
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:55 am

Today the Raptor Fund begins operation.

Even though its a "paper trade", i'm excited, because i've had many a futures trade on...carried many positions home with me, some that i couldnt wait for the next day, others i felt the next day was walk off a plank.

the objective of the Raptor Fund is to surmise my worth as 300 million USD, and i know good and well, that another well capitalized entity seeking to take delivery of Comex silver, would cause even more consternation.

Now, many of the guys here never traded futures.....dont worry, feel FREE to ask me any question....ANYTHING..the Comex silver contract is 5,000 troy ounces......which means that for every contract a move from 29.10 to 29.20 is $500 PER contract..(you will read me refer to contracts a lot of times as "cars"....thats a reference i grew up...) so a move from 29.00 to 30.00 is $5,000.

one thing a little odd i noticed is the margin requirements, which seem very high, kind of way of keeping YOU and ME OUT of this market..Margin is the amount of money you must have in your trading account to go home with ONE silver contract long or short. ("short"....shorting selling is where you "sell" a futures contract in the belief you can buy it back at a cheaper price....short selling is what soe very powerful "institutions" have been doing to shall we say...suppress the price of silver?)

the margin for a SINGLE contract of Silver is $21,600 initial margin, and the "maintenence" margin is 16,000 dollars...maintenence margin is required of the position goes against you....assume the exchange will just put both margins against holding a SINGLE contract...thats the amount of money, $37,600, you have to have in your trading account to hold one contract.

thats pretty much of our leagues, isnt it?.....THATS how they want it to be....i was trading pork bellies back in the day...MAYBE a $1,500 a car margin, i used to have corn spreads on with a $200 margin...thats how i could get away with having 5 to 10,000 dollars in a trading account....but this? $37,600 a car for silver.....even with a good account for a moderately well healed individual, lets say $100,000....what could trade in silver.......two cars?.......do you see now HOW this large institutions, who traders are PLAYING with VAST SUMS of "money" can even give thought to playing with the silver futures market.

here's the free pricing resource i'm using:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/SI_.html

if you click on the blue March, it will take you to a screen showing you a hourly bar chart,...on the left side, you'll see "Chart Term"...."intraday" is the default.......below it are "daily", "weekly" , "monthly"....i like to look at both the daily and weekly...intraday is "okay"...but daily is best......but if you stay on the initial page, quotes are 10 minutes behind, and you can the refresh button.

my obejective in this month long exercise is...assume i am worth 300 mln, its my desire to take delivery of the limit of 1500 cars, thats 7.5 mln try ounces.

when i "trade", it will ususally be "at the market"...which means that when i look at the board, and see the price...the next time it refreshes is where i will have bought or sold....i'm keeping a handwritten notebook, of purchases and sales, and will put up my "position" every day....i MIGHT be buying AND selling, but thats only because i'm scalping around the cars i would inform the exchange i intend on taking delivery of....i will not the cars that i'm intending on taking delivery of.

these guys must of know i was coming, coz March is already trading 64 cents higher on the day at 29.10

my first order is to buy 50 at the market, then another 50 March silver at the market...in short, this first day, i'm trying to get anything under $30 i can.

1. Bought 50 March Silver at 29.11 (the symbol for silver is "SI" the symbol for March is "H" and you put the year "13" next that:

so it read "Bot 50 SIH13 @29.11" (time 0653 CST) (the margin on that trade alone would be $1.8 mln)
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:58 am

0655 CST

Bot 50 SIH13 @ 29.13.

position:

Bot 50 SIH13 @ 29.11
Bot 50 SIH13 @ 29.13

put in an price order to buy 100 SIH13 @ 29.05 (this order is just a day order)
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:04 am

0703 CST put in another order to

Buy 100 SIH13 @29.00

total resting orders

Buy 100 SIH13 29.05
Buy 100 SIH13 29.00
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:41 am

the entity named on the account would be a RECENTLY set up firm "Hezekiah Wellington and Stout LLC" registered in St. Lucia, with offices, (mail drops) in London and Zug, Switzerland.

Hezekiah Wellington and Stout LLC, would be a wholly owned subsidiary of "HWS Resources Ltd" registered in the Bahamas.

At this time, i would be dwelling far away on the private island of Mustique, once must be far away from the US for this kind of business.

0711...YES!! filled on the order of

Bot 100 SIH13 29.05 at 0711 CST

total position
bot 50 SIH13---29.13
bot 50 SIH13---29.11
bot 100 SIH13--29.05

oh yes, just to make this ALL FUN, as i said i would relocate from my northern haunts down to Mustique...its private, i'd make a very strong OFFER for a MODEST hillside place....you're going to see a lot of waterfront play and drinking in this video...MOST of the time, i would sitting on my lanai, with a spread of screens, and a phone...and in the afternoon, make an appearence...."what am i doing on Mustique?"...."yes hi...just a humble writer laboring away at my next magnus opus, and you?"....."OH!! Walter Noel!! pleasure to meet you....i dont mean to bring up unplesantries, but I, yes I KNOW that Madoff TOTALLY pulled the wool over your eyes....how are you doing?...allow me to buy you a drink....what do you think of metals these days?"


wait!!! second fill

Bot 100 SIH13 ----29.00

total postition 300 cars.

back to Mustique...St Lucia's only 60 miles away...here's two video's the first is to show you the island...welcome, and the second is a bit of FUN history of HOW Mustique was 'formed".



and then this is fun, "The Man Who Bought Mustique"

Last edited by neilgin1 on Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:43 am

0742 CST

this order is put in

Buy 100 SIH 28.80

my "order" hasnt been filled, but i wanted to show you a very funny, IRONIC bit of video, from my island home of Mustique, in this you will see a disgraced hedge fund manager, and his wife speak in glowing terms of the late Lord Glenconner, who founded Mustique, only to be screamed at, and run off the land where he pitched a tent, to entertain his old friend Princess Margaret...its priceless, and it's why i love Mustique...yes, money will get on the island, but it cant buy you friends...and the bullocking this disgraced arrogant cur recieves from a now dead "Lord" is something....dude gets run off like a hobo....after trading, i'll wander down to the bar. (this all would make for an entertaining read! lol)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzmvU7EJ ... _embedded#!
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:14 am

0908 CST.....

Long 300 cars SIH13

resting order to buy 100 SIH13 @28.80...not filled. price now 29.04

at 0910 CST put in a market order to buy

Buy 50 SIH13 at the market.....next tic is mine.....29.02

now long 350 cars of SIH13
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:21 am

0915 CST

wish to buy 50 more SIH13 at the market.........put order in at 0916........next tick is mine, 28.97

Bot 50 SIH13 @28.97

now long 400 cars of SIH13

(total margin required $14.8 mln USD)

order to buy 100 SIH13 28.80 still resting, unfilled.
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:48 am

1041 CST...i've got a thing, and have to leave, BUT i wanted 500 cars the first day...thats the base position, the March is 06-08 right now, so i put in an order

Buy 100 SIH13 at the market...the second tick will be mine......29.05.

Bot 100 SIH13 @ 29.05

long 500 SIH13 ( margin required 18.5 mln USD) resting order left in to buy SIH13 @28.80
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby beauanderos » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:59 am

this is fun, Neil. Count me in for a hundred million :shh: :lol: Be interesting to keep an end of each day running valuation of Raptor Fund to see whether it's winning or losing... and imagine the size of cojones required to keep playing :thumbup:
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:38 pm

beauanderos wrote:this is fun, Neil. Count me in for a hundred million :shh: :lol: Be interesting to keep an end of each day running valuation of Raptor Fund to see whether it's winning or losing... and imagine the size of cojones required to keep playing :thumbup:

just hoist the jolly roger if you want to come down to Mustique....its on me, i'll send the DC-3 to come get you....go to the Butler private terminal...wear an Oakland A's ball cap, if anybody asks you anything, just say you're with "HWS Resources".......dont mention no names, you're going to the Bahamas, etc etc...the less you say outside of "i'm with HWS Resources on business"...the better....ie...any suddenly friendly "strangers' with a penchant for small talk?.....walk away.......look for the gun metal gray unmarked DC-3...the pilot is 5'11 salt and pepper dark hair, blue eyes and a Scottish accent.......just get onboard, there's a settee in back you can nap on, a fridge with drinks, goodies, sangwiches....wifi as well....be aware, you will be making one stop on route...dont worry about that...or even wonder...ask questions, everything's OK.....here's what the landing will look like: i'll meet you at the hut on the tarmac.....we're going to party...i've just hired some morally casual "housemaids"......however "Moms", shes the Jamaican cook, treat her as you would a ......a mother, or an aunt...she's a great woman, great cook...the others?...dont worry about anything...ITS ON....THE HOUSE.

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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:54 pm

oh ps....Ray, most of these cars are not spec's....i want the silver......i want to take delivery...the reason i did 500 today is that first notice day is Thursday...and delievery month LIMIT is 1500 cars....non delievery is 6,000 cars, that how these humps can screw the market around...thats why you see the OI take a dive in the middle of the month....NOW, in the last four trading days, BEFORE you get assigned, they gotta BUY, they want OUT....well, okay.......i gotta BUY TOO, i want silver.....NOW would be the perfect time FOR REAL to jam it...ohhhhh, you bet they'd weasel...maybe somehow the news would leak, a well connected constortium is standing for delivery....oooops..if it was for real?....we'd be at 33-34 by weeks end, guys screaming like women, "parabolic, parabolic!!!"....margins gassed 300%.........no problem...where's the silver guys? hahahhahah.

meanwhile, we're down on Mustique....OH! maybe we run into Mick....i'll get him Chinese-eyed, and tell him, hey look, you wanna screw some bourgouise Yanks over AND make money?....Jagger's worth a billion...who knows......morning spent trading, afternoons and evenings spent getting gassed...lap dances....driving around in golf carts inebriated...messing with the 'elite'....now thats fun!!!....and maybe Mick himself would play the Cotton house like he did in 2005.....look how messed up he is!!!! LMAO!!

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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:20 pm

Ray...one more thing you gotta be aware, if you come down......my pals?....are not the well healed white yuppies like that hump Noel, who Lord Glenconner run off....my pals ARE THE HELP....see?....coz we got more things in common...and i respect THEM MORE...they're more fun...more real...you get hooked into the REAL power stucture of the islands....not these hedge fund managers that come for one or two weeks...the help.....here's a clip done by some well heeled Brit housewife, a nice lass, sweet kids..its revealing......i'm just letting you KNOW how we're rolling before you get here, the guys mowing the lawns, or bartending or the women cooking?, THEY are our friends...the tanned white folk, wearing the LaCoste alligators, and giving me weird looks, coz i'm wearing a linen caftan and a fez, they are not our friends....we can be "friendly" with them, but only for appearances, and maybe with you distracting them, while i'm rummage their kit for any interesting medcines, powders, passports, weapons....maybe "Dad" has a briefcase full of the positions of his hedge fund...you get where i'm coming from?...at night, its gonna be the help comes up and parties with us, any rich artists, like rock stars...they can come up, they know what its like to miss a meal...btw, these "housemaids" i hired, are all white girls from the mainland...hired for their brains, conversational skills, wit and discretion...these are NOT back alley slatterns...think "geisha".....here's the clip...so think hard be fore you committ, once the train is rolling, baring jumping the tracks, there will be NO STOPS.

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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 3:53 pm

Btw, this is for everyone that reads this thread....thank you....

"why, neil?"

well, strange as it sounds, there's a book in all this, an entertaining book...not boring. Thats why they call it "show business", if you dont "SHOW" (something)....you wont have no business.

yeh, i stack like everyone here, and i love to talk metals, coins....but i do other things, like write, and for two years, i been flipping ideas around...not lighting on anything. Probably because i dont HAVE to. But this sick tale is something fun, that i WANT to do, so thanks ya'll for keeping the playground playable. Appreciate, neil
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby IdahoCopper » Mon Feb 25, 2013 4:43 pm

Neil - Is there a parking place for my boat at Mustique?

Its a 300-footer ....

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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:00 pm

IdahoCopper wrote:Neil - Is there a parking place for my boat at Mustique?

Its a 300-footer ....

Image



always room, waters warm...come own!!

all kidding aside...holy moley...went into town, then been writing all afternoon, wasnt watching the stock market....my bro and i just talked....did you see the first class shelacking equities took?......AND, for the first time,i noticed that PM's sort of, decoupled from stocks. Lately when stocks get slammed, gold and silver get cratered too, right?

not today.

i got a weird feeling about all this. the "sequester"?...just consider this aspect.....meat.

"what?"

yeh, meat....if USDA inspectors arent doing their thing, Conagra, Hormel and the other majors wont be shipping, and you know how tight JIT (just in time) inventory controls have gotten....what happens when shelves go bare?

we now seen what's happened with ammo...shelves bare, but MEAT?....i'm just saying. We've all been hearing the whispers, and wasnt the sequester the magic bullet, to give these guys, executive and legislative, to get their act together....BUT OH NO...they CANT!!

so any kind of food disruption, God forbid, would be a WHOLLY CONTRIVED set of circumstances, especially if there WAS any kind of "unrest".

hopefully, my son is going to be reading this thread, i gave him the URL, coz i started writing, and i wanted him to see the genesis of what i'm working on...i would urge anyone, i love deeply, very calmly and collected, to fill up both freezer and larder at once....AND to pray.....maybe i'm just getting twitchy, take care Gee.
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:17 am

26 Feb 2013

Bot 100 SIH13 on a resting order at 28.80

position as of 0805 AM -----Bot 600 SIH13 avg 29.00

current SIH13 quote 28.93, which shows a loss of $210,000

margin required for 600 cars: 22.2 mln USD
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:56 am

here comes the rip!

0853 AM

enter resting orders:

Buy 50 SIH13 @ 28.65

Buy 50 SIH13 @ 28.49

last trade SIH13 28.80 down almost 19 cents
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Tue Feb 26, 2013 11:07 am

Resting order to

Buy 50 SIH13@ 28.65 is filled ---1000 AM

total position, Long 650 cars of March 13 Silver, avg price, a shade below 29.00

last quote as of 1005 (CST) is 29.22, high of the day.

looks like some pretty frenetic buying is hitting the market.

(later addition, maybe not SO frenetic, traded down to 29.14 real quick....its trading a tad "waterlogged")
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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Wed Feb 27, 2013 3:37 am

0210 AM CST

Bot 100 SIH13 @ 29.23

long 700 SIH13

(making life very unsettling for the inhabitants of Mustique, as its 2 AM, i'm out on the patio, with a bull horn, howling like a wolf, and they cant do anything about it...its a private island, no police force. three of the six guys on my security detail are killing off a bottle of Lagavulin, laughing and braying like hyena's...oop, i see lights going on down below near the beach houses. "GOOD!! WAKE UP YOU FECKLESS CURS!! IT'S TIME TO TRADE!!!! THERE ARE NO VACATIONS! THERE IS ONLY ZUL!!!!)

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Re: "Raptor Fund"

Postby neilgin1 » Wed Feb 27, 2013 7:54 am

The Truth About the COMEX

Posted by Wealth Wire - Tuesday, February 26th, 2013


Trading precious metals over the COMEX entails numerous risks and is a tool used by the power elites to manipulate the gold market. We at Global Gold are therefore convinced that when it comes to gold, nothing comes close to holding the physical and unencumbered ownership of gold outside of the banking system. In this article we will provide an introduction on how trading on the COMEX works. How it is used to manipulate gold prices and explain why, due to its risk, investors should stay away from this type of “paper gold” market.

The COMEX is a futures market. When you buy (or sell) gold over COMEX, you are not gaining (or giving up) physical ownership of a metal, but rather promising to buy (or sell) gold at some future date at a predefined price. The counterparty to all transactions is the exchange; it steps in when an individual on the long or short side defaults. The exchange sets the initial margin. This needs to be deposited before a party can enter into any transaction. On a daily basis the losses and gains are either subtracted or added. If the margin falls under a specific level (the so-called maintenance margin) the broker calls the client (margin call) and asks for additional funds to be deposited. We should however mention that the margin is only a fraction of the contract value and therefore the whole exchange is built on pretty shaky ground.

It is fair to say that most gold and other precious metals contracts on the COMEX do not end up being physically settled at all. They are offset beforehand. Offsetting means that you enter into a transaction opposite to the one you initially entered. If you bought a gold future for example, you sell the same contract and take your profit or loss without having any further obligation or taking possession of the metal. Most traders on the COMEX are uninterested in physical delivery; preferring to speculate on price movements in gold prices. This can be clearly seen when one compares the open contracts of April, which has 250’000 open contracts and the February contract (which can be delivered at any time), which has a mere 2’000 contracts outstanding.

Now, after understanding how the COMEX works you might be wondering how the gold price manipulation is taking place. Ted Butler was among the first ones to bring this matter to the attention of the general public. At the other side of the Atlantic, Dimitri Speck uncovered and analyzed this phenomenon mathematically into great detail. Gold price manipulation can take place either by increasing the supply of gold or reducing the price expectations. The selling of gold by major Western central banks and gold leasing is aimed at increasing the supply; thus reducing the price. With regards to the COMEX the second aspect is important; namely the reduction of the price expectations.

If one analyzes the gold price during the day, one can see a systematic manipulation taking place during early COMEX trading; were the price systematically and drastically loses in value. We at Global Gold are convinced that this artificially created volatility is done to drive investors away from gold.

Due to the fact the gold is a durable good and the COMEX is a physically settled market the spot price and futures price move pretty much in line. A manipulation on the COMEX therefore also affects the price of the physical gold market (which is another important aspect to consider). As we mentioned above, the COMEX requires a margin. However, the margin is so tiny that to sell one million dollars worth of gold you need to deposit less than 40’000 USD. This makes the COMEX prone to manipulation (because using little amounts the price can be moved into the desired direction). Furthermore, the induced price declines are amplified as more and more investors decide (or are forced to) to sell their positions.

Leaving these manipulations aside, we would like to stress that due to the risks involved in COMEX trading we would strongly advise against using the COMEX for gold transactions. To further explain why, we would like you to look at some different scenarios.

What would happen if all open contracts on the COMEX would not be offset and physical delivery would be demanded?
To answer this question let’s look at the total open interest for gold and silver and compare it to the mining production. These figures are shown in the table below:

Image

All open contracts for gold and silver are equivalent to 53% and 88% of the total yearly mining production. If all persons holding futures decide not to roll (offset) their position, physical settlement would be simply impossible and the house of cards called COMEX would collapse. Even if one uses the total supply for precious metals instead of the mining production the picture doesn’t really change. The open silver contracts amount to around 72% of the total yearly silver supply (Estimated by the Silver Institute). The value of the outstanding contracts in gold is higher than the total gold reserves of Switzerland and Austria together!

What would happen if an extraordinary number of people demanded physical delivery?
We define an extraordinary number as an amount which is well above the historical average, without coming close to all contracts as in the previous example. This can become a problem if the following happens simultaneously:

■The COMEX acts as counterparty for all transactions; the person selling the precious metal (the short) and the COMEX have to be in default collectively.
■The margin acts as a certain buffer; meaning if the price of the precious metal is not massively impacted by the demand for physical delivery. The margin should suffice to buy gold at spot and make delivery.
A scenario like this would lead to a massive increase in the price for gold and silver. Resulting in the sellers on the COMEX frantically buying all the precious metals they can get their hands on; to be able to make the promised delivery to the depositories. Due to the disproportionality of amount of gold and silver needed to the supply, prices are likely to spike so strongly that physical delivery would be deemed to be impossible. “The shorts” would simply not have enough cash to buy all the metals needed to fulfill their obligation. Due to the vast amount of contracts the COMEX would also be unable to step in (default) and the long investors would suffer heavy losses or even a total loss on their positions.

What happens if an extreme, let’s say 20%, price jump occurs over the weekend?
The current margin for gold contracts is less than 4% of the contract value. A lot of the market participants in the futures markets are highly leveraged. Such a jump in the price would lead to massive amounts of defaults. Furthermore, due to the high amount of contracts outstanding, it is highly unlikely that the COMEX would be able to jump in, resulting with long investors suffering heavy losses or even a total loss on their positions.

What other risk does COMEX trading entail?
Another thing to remember is that although the COMEX is highly regulated, there have been instances in the past where fraud on a massive scale has taken place. One such example is the MF Global fiasco in 2011; client funds were used to speculate on behalf of the firm. Nearly two years later clients have not yet received their funds, and it is still unclear how much of their funds (which were in segregated accounts) they will ever see again. This videoreveals the ties between the firm and the government.

Our conclusion: When you buy gold over COMEX you are not gaining physical ownership of gold. You are basically buying a promise by the short (and COMEX) that you can get delivery of gold at specific time in the future. As we described above, buying such “paper gold” entails the very real risk of default and therefore we advise against its usage. Here at Global Gold Switzerland, we are convinced that gold should only be held physically and without the use of leverage. We see gold and other precious metals as a form of insurance policy. Not only as an insurance policy against the constant devaluation of paper currencies, but also as an insurance policy to protect the owner in extreme scenarios. Including but not limited to a collapse of our monetary system. Built on the same foundation, as our fractional reserve banking system the COMEX can simply not hold this promise.

Ask yourself… Would you enter a fire insurance policy if there were a pretty good chance you won’t be paid a thing if your house burns down?

*Post courtesy of Claudio Grass, managing director of Global Gold in Switzerland
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