Realcent.org

Gas prices always seem to go up after national elections. I expect PMs to do the same.

68Camaro wrote:
You only lose money if you sell. Silver (and gold) is money. USD are popular only until they aren't. The conversion price between USD and PM is artificial and based on games being played at high levels. You should not be storing assets in PM until/unless (to the best of ability) you have basic needs covered for an extended period of time, and then you should be focused more on ounces for long term hold. If however you are flipping then you are playing with the big boys and you take the bad with the good.

I agree- you only lose when you sell. Unfortunately, some people get too emotional with their holdings and get scared out at the wrong time. I do like what you are saying here...

Recyclersteve wrote:

68Camaro wrote:
You only lose money if you sell. Silver (and gold) is money. USD are popular only until they aren't. The conversion price between USD and PM is artificial and based on games being played at high levels. You should not be storing assets in PM until/unless (to the best of ability) you have basic needs covered for an extended period of time, and then you should be focused more on ounces for long term hold. If however you are flipping then you are playing with the big boys and you take the bad with the good.

I agree- you only lose when you sell. Unfortunately, some people get too emotional with their holdings and get scared out at the wrong time. I do like what you are saying here...

TPTB are in control of the entire paper market and they don't want to lose that control. They want to shake you out and force you to sell. If PMs drop much farther, many WILL get scared and capitulate... even most of the diehard PM people on here.

IMO, another big dump is coming. $16-17 Ag is most likely right around the corner. This will separate the men from the boys. It will be very interesting to see who the strong hands are and who the weak hands are. Some of the weak hands are already showing themselves.

I bought when silver was $4 an ounce and when it was $38 an ounce and will continue to buy at the current prices and below. Ask yourself WHY you stack and if anything has changed. I think the key to stacking is NOT putting everything you have in to metals so that you are not FORCED to sell when prices fall. Why is it that we look for sales when we buy furniture, cars etc but not when we buy stocks, PMs etc?

I've had a number of unexpected expenses around the house this summer so instead of taking advantage of the great silver prices I'm rebuilding my depleted reserve funds. It's no good to have everything tied up in PM's and then needing access to the money for something else. I hope this silver sale is still on when I'm ready to start buying again.

The problem of how long you CAN you wait is related to age. If you're younger, you can wait it out a generation. If you are in your late '60s (like me), waiting may not be an option. What if we wait like we did from 1980- 2011 again? I did that! But, I don't have time left to do that again, and I see similarities: falling PMs and equities that go much higher than anyone dreamed. Could it go on for decades again? Why not DOW 100,000 in 2031, and AG languishing at $10 during that same timespan? I know the fundamentals are different now, but it may be possible that the criminals continue their game another generation.

Country wrote:The problem of how long you CAN you wait is related to age. If you're younger, you can wait it out a generation. If you are in your late '60s (like me), waiting may not be an option. What if we wait like we did from 1980- 2011 again? I did that! But, I don't have time left to do that again, and I see similarities: falling PMs and equities that go much higher than anyone dreamed. Could it go on for decades again? Why not DOW 100,000 in 2031, and AG languishing at $10 during that same timespan? I know the fundamentals are different now, but it may be possible that the criminals continue their game another generation.

You're correct and I am not far behind you in age so if the game plays out that way at least I KNOW I have put something away for the future generations in my household to give them a fighting chance. What they do with what they are left is beyond my control.

If the game continues for another generation then God help us all as one can hardly imagine the state of the country with 20 more years of decline. But worst comes to worst, as noted I'll be passing on something to another generation. But I can't imagine more than 5 years of this. 2020 or earlier I see a crash of massive proportions.

Country wrote:The problem of how long you CAN you wait is related to age. If you're younger, you can wait it out a generation. If you are in your late '60s (like me), waiting may not be an option. What if we wait like we did from 1980- 2011 again? I did that! But, I don't have time left to do that again, and I see similarities: falling PMs and equities that go much higher than anyone dreamed. Could it go on for decades again? Why not DOW 100,000 in 2031, and AG languishing at $10 during that same timespan? I know the fundamentals are different now, but it may be possible that the criminals continue their game another generation.

I'm almost 50 and I've also thought about this. Thankfully, I bought a bunch at $4 - $6, so my overall cost basis is somewhere around $15. I have sold some Au, but not 1oz of Ag. In hindsight I should have sold some when it hit the high $40's... probably many others who wished they had sold there as well. It's been over 3 years since the peak. Based on what I am seeing/reading on PM forums and YT, stackers are definitely getting fatigued.

I have a feeling TPTB are going to keep the pressure on PMs until the very end. I believe a black swan event will be required for Ag to move substantially higher. The reality is that we might not see $50 again for a very long time. If Ag continues to drop, many weak hands are going to capitulate and throw in the towel.

I consider my hands to be among the strong ones. I don't care what stocks do...I'm in it for the LONG term....so I won't be selling anytime soon, unless I absolutely have to!

I would enjoy seeing the price drop more! Think about how much more we could all get!

I see in this thread some of you good folks saying that silver could go down further (it could) and some one mentioned a "what if" scenario about stocks continuing higher while silver wallows at $10/ounce. Lets consider this though: even if we stackers all threw in the towel, there has to be a price point where miners can no longer produce silver because the cost is too much higher than the value. I mean, it still needs to be produced for electronics and solar and anti-microbials etc. The question is, what Is that ultimate low price level? I have no idea. I would imagine it can't be too far below where we are now but I am not qualified to answer that.

Thoughts?

Anyhow, I am going to keep stacking. I still think you all should too.

It's been said many times before, but having a stack of greenbacks is also important. This lowers the risk of having to sell pms at a loss. I don't mind prices staying at their current price. This gives me more time to build the stack.

silverflake wrote:I see in this thread some of you good folks saying that silver could go down further (it could) and some one mentioned a "what if" scenario about stocks continuing higher while silver wallows at $10/ounce. Lets consider this though: even if we stackers all threw in the towel, there has to be a price point where miners can no longer produce silver because the cost is too much higher than the value. I mean, it still needs to be produced for electronics and solar and anti-microbials etc. The question is, what Is that ultimate low price level? I have no idea. I would imagine it can't be too far below where we are now but I am not qualified to answer that.

Thoughts?

Anyhow, I am going to keep stacking. I still think you all should too.

One complicating factor- it is very time consuming and expensive to shut down and reopen a mine from what I've read. So if you ran a mining company and thought silver would only be produced by your company for a few months at a loss, I imagine most would choose producing for a few months at a loss to no production at all for several years. Then a projected two months of producing at a loss becomes six months, and then a year. Where do you stop? It is a tricky situation for a mining company to be in from what I can tell. Anyone else want to weigh in on this?

silverflake wrote:I see in this thread some of you good folks saying that silver could go down further (it could) and some one mentioned a "what if" scenario about stocks continuing higher while silver wallows at $10/ounce. Lets consider this though: even if we stackers all threw in the towel, there has to be a price point where miners can no longer produce silver because the cost is too much higher than the value. I mean, it still needs to be produced for electronics and solar and anti-microbials etc. The question is, what Is that ultimate low price level? I have no idea. I would imagine it can't be too far below where we are now but I am not qualified to answer that.

Thoughts?

Anyhow, I am going to keep stacking. I still think you all should too.

If that's the answer than why was silver at one point at $4 an ounce? I don't know I'm just asking. Miners were still mining and silver was still be used industrially. The question baffles me and I wish I knew the answer. Now were at $18 and some change and we are still using silver in industry and miners are still mining. What is the point where miners won't mine do to price constraints anymore because at $4 they were still mining.

Answered please

Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers.

But I will note that the largest highest grade mines have been playing out over time, and the last time silver was $4 (about 2002) the Dow was about half of now at a time when silver was arguably undervalued and the world was still burning through its billions of ounces of historical reserves held in silver coinage (now mostly depleted). There may be more to it than that, but I think a lot of the answer lies in those four factors.

68Camaro wrote:Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers.

But I will note that the largest highest grade mines have been playing out over time, and the last time silver was $4 (about 2002) the Dow was about half of now at a time when silver was arguably undervalued and the world was still burning through its billions of ounces of historical reserves held in silver coinage (now mostly depleted). There may be more to it than that, but I think a lot of the answer lies in those four factors.

I won't claim to have all the answers either, but I think mining costs were likely a lot lower in 2002 than now. Also, some miners sell forward production in exchange for cash up front, a little like someone sells a covered call on a stock they own. So their loss from production is then offset by option premium taken in.

Silver was $4... but living expenses (and corollary mining costs) were 50 to 66% cheaper just 12 years ago than today. Silver was underpriced then as well.

Oh guys, I remember when silver was $4 an ounce. Early nineties. I was basically broke but could occasionally scrape together $35 to buy a ROLL OF WALKING LIBERTY HALVES! Sweet....$5 silver eagles and maple leafs, sigh, those were the days.

Ok, I'm in, bring on $4 silver. I will take out a second stinkin' mortgage and buy it. '

Pile it up boys. Stack now, stack often.

silverflake wrote:Oh guys, I remember when silver was $4 an ounce. Early nineties. I was basically broke but could occasionally scrape together $35 to buy a ROLL OF WALKING LIBERTY HALVES! Sweet....$5 silver eagles and maple leafs, sigh, those were the days.

Ok, I'm in, bring on $4 silver. I will take out a second stinkin' mortgage and buy it. '

Pile it up boys. Stack now, stack often.

yes those were the days - but no need to go back to the 90's - those prices were the norm in 01 and 02

Perhaps Im dead wrong, but honestly I think ag has been on sale for decades. With the price artificially held low both by the massive reserves having been sold off and all the paper silver if nothing else. Ive been told that paper silver doesnt affect the price, but you have dollars chasing pretend ounces.

We have generational issues imo.

It wasn't that many years ago that my LCS would let me cherry pick his trays of average circulated Peace dollars for $14 and pre-21 Morgans for $15. I long for those days to return and if they do I won't hit those trays easy like before, it instead will be a weekly frontal assault with no mercy given and no names taken

If that's the answer than why was silver at one point at $4 an ounce? I don't know I'm just asking. Miners were still mining and silver was still be used industrially.

Short simplistic answer is that most mined silver is produced as a by-product of the primary mine ore, such as copper or zinc. So for those primary copper and zinc mines the silver comes 'free'. For those mines it's 'found' money from their waste stream.

NiBullionCu wrote:

If that's the answer than why was silver at one point at $4 an ounce? I don't know I'm just asking. Miners were still mining and silver was still be used industrially.

Short simplistic answer is that most mined silver is produced as a by-product of the primary mine ore, such as copper or zinc. So for those primary copper and zinc mines the silver comes 'free'. For those mines it's 'found' money from their waste stream.

Excellent point- silver is often found as a byproduct of zinc, lead, copper and gold.

pennypicker wrote:It wasn't that many years ago that my LCS would let me cherry pick his trays of average circulated Peace dollars for $14 and pre-21 Morgans for $15. I long for those days to return and if they do I won't hit those trays easy like before, it instead will be a weekly frontal assault with no mercy given and no names taken

TOTALLY!

I used to go to e-bay and bid $14/ea on all the peace dollars (shipping included). The odd lots of 3,7,18...were the best It was great!. I would even lose track of who sent, must have bought over 1000 peace dollars. Probably DCA under $11.

It was great buying at a discount. It was also great selling them at 25-35 each. The funny thing is, I was nervous doing it, afraid I would never see a peace dollar under 25 bucks. The last batch I think I sold at 22?

$18.00 as I type this.

As long as a PM paper market exists, it will dictate the price... the fraud and manipulation will continue indefinitely. It MUST continue. TPTB cannot afford to have PMs overtake the USD. That would put an end to their whole fiat Ponzi scheme.