Its all a scam.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I don't know what the Canary will be (of course the signs will be "obvious" in hindsight) but the USD will need to crash down to the lower 70s to start then continue on down as confidence evaporates in the best horse in the glue factory. Otherwise it's just a recoverable recession where recovery will continue to be based on zirp and endless money printing.

Yes, the USD is best horse, for now. TPTB will kick the can down the road as far as it will go. As the sh*t storm gets worse, they will take interest rates down again. People talk about interest rates going negative, but not many are going to accept/pay to keep cash in a bank. The helicopter money drops will continue until the USD is worthless. The dollars days are definitely numbered, that is inevitable.

When/ if that happens we're then in a new world. We've never been in a place where a completely intertwined global economy that was built on paper crashed together all at once. Unfortunately that type of thing tends to create war, revolution, insurrection and foster dictatorships. And the next event of that type will be even more exaggerated than ever before.

At this point, it's a slow-motion train wreck. The closer the train gets to the cliff, the more speed it gains. We are living in very uncertain and scary times. A financial and economic crash would destroy a lot of people. Most people I come in contact with are totally distracted and dumbed down with social media, texting, sports, video games and would be caught totally off guard if a major collapse took place. I feel sorry for them.

PMs are good for insurance and wealth preservation, but they won't have much use in an all-out societal collapse. People should also have a large stockpile of food, water, guns, ammo and supplies. I don't spend a lot of time dwelling on doomsday scenarios because I already have all that stuff. People need to prepare accordingly. I suspect most won't.

[Recyclersteve]

When the SHTF, I can see someone saying to a neighbor "Hey, I'll trade you some silver for some bullets." Then, with bullets in hand, "Hey, I'd like the silver back and I'm keeping the bullets except for the one I will put in your head if you don't give me back the silver."
I truly hope I never witness anything remotely like this, but am preparing for it anyway.

[NotABigDeal]

When the SHTF, I can see someone saying to a neighbor "Hey, I'll trade you some silver for some bullets." Then, with bullets in hand, "Hey, I'd like the silver back and I'm keeping the bullets except for the one I will put in your head if you don't give me back the silver."
I truly hope I never witness anything remotely like this, but am preparing for it anyway.

Then you better have your own bullets....

Deal

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Yet another -500 on the DOW... same as Friday. Classic distribution and bear market activity. How many more -500 down days before the DOW hits zero? However, there is still no real panic or fear setting it yet, just controlled downward movement.

There is a LOT riding on what the Fed does/says this Wednesday.

PM's aren't doing much though. Probably going to take some fear and a panic to get them moving.

Thankfully, I moved my 401k into stable fund a few months ago.

[pmbug]

...
If the Fed raises rates again, that's going to kill the market.

Narrator: They did.. And it did.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

And another big red day...

DOW -464

S&P -39.5

How are you aggressive 401k HODL'ers holding up? Ouch.

Some good news though... historically, the Christmas rally should start tomorrow. Will probably continue into next week, then back down again.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Market down again! It's pretty much in bear market territory now.

DOW -414
S&P -51

I cannot remember any December being this bad... it's easily worse than Dec 2008. Retirement funds are down 15-20% on average. Every overnight gap-up rally over the past 2 weeks has been sold off. Today was up +400 points and it gave it all back and then some. Too much negative news/sentiment out there for any rally to stick. No Christmas rally yet, perhaps next week. There has to be a few decent dead-cat bounces coming soon. No bear market goes straight down.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Christmas eve and another huge red day. No Christmas rally this year.

Good thing the market closed early today or we would probably be down even more. This is the worst December I can remember. Once the margin calls come rolling in, that will accelerate the selling. 401k's are getting slaughtered. I don't know how people can stand seeing their money evaporate. I'm sure many are shrugging their shoulders saying "It will come back up". I feel sorry for those who are in or close to retirement.

The bear market is just getting warmed up.

[68Camaro]

If we presume the constant inflation imposed by the Fed applies to market value a visual extrapolated "reasonable" market value based on historical data for the Dow would be (in my view) about 15,000. I agree with others here that the current market prices are well over-inflated - bubble-ish. If you start with 15,000 for a healthy market, then speculate a bad bear market from that value, a further reduction of perhaps 30-40% based on the weakness of our industry, our debt, and our negative balance of trade, I see a bottom at least below 10,000. Whether this is that big correction or not, I see a 4 digit Dow in the future. How low? Somewhere between 3,000 and 9,000, which is a big range - but we're in strange times and I'm not practiced in any better prediction than that. I had predicted the last crash might go to 3000 but they caught the market in early 2009 and pumped it up just before it went below 7000. None of this is new news - it's all been discussed here before.

The massive debt pile needs to be mostly discharged and reset before a healthy market can really resume. I'm not sure how that happens, without really bad things happening, frankly. Which is why (the TPTB knowing this - at least some of them) they will continue to do everything they can to continue to kick the can down the road as long as possible, so I don't think we've seen the end of their attempts to manipulate, by far. So I doubt this is "the big one"... but then again when it does happen we'll still probably be saying this most likely isn't the big one - but one of them eventually will be it. Eventually the instabilities will catch TPTB by surprise from a possibly unexpected corner and they will find their correction tools completely ineffective - the market will then find it's true value at a level that most will be shocked by. The related repercussions will ring into every corner of our lives for a long time.

[Treetop]

I only understand the edges of the market, I mean I knew where various crop futures were going against what the experts said based on what actual farmers told me. Mostly I have no idea what is going on. I do have to say though as a laymen it seems like if most people who want jobs have them things will chug along even if markets crash. Am I wrong?

[68Camaro]

Problem with major market changes is a) futures market demands its pound of flesh, b) capital borrowing is a function of valuation so ability to capitalize drops, c) confidence drops, d) spending drops, e) sales drop, f) layoffs ensue and the cycle continues down.

(Edit for typo)

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

If we presume the constant inflation imposed by the Fed applies to market value a visual extrapolated "reasonable" market value based on historical data for the Dow would be (in my view) about 15,000. I agree with others here that the current market prices are well over-inflated - bubble-ish. If you start with 15,000 for a healthy market, then speculate a bad bear market from that value, a further reduction of perhaps 30-40% based on the weakness of our industry, our debt, and our negative balance of trade, I see a bottom at least below 10,000. Whether this is that big correction or not, I see a 4 digit Dow in the future. How low? Somewhere between 3,000 and 9,000, which is a big range - but we're in strange times and I'm not practiced in any better prediction than that. I had predicted the last crash might go to 3000 but they caught the market in early 2009 and pumped it up just before it went below 7000. None of this is new news - it's all been discussed here before.

[b]The massive debt pile needs to be mostly discharged and reset before a healthy market can really resume.[/b] I'm not sure how that happens, without really bad things happening, frankly. Which is why (the TPTB knowing this - at least some of them) they will continue to do everything they can to continue to kick the can down the road as long as possible, so [b]I don't think we've seen the end of their attempts to manipulate, by far[/b]. So I doubt this is "the big one"... but then again when it does happen we'll still probably be saying this most likely isn't the big one - but one of them eventually will be it. [b]Eventually the instabilities will catch TPTB by surprise from a possibly unexpected corner and they will find their correction tools completely ineffective - the market will then find it's true value at a level that most will be shocked by. The related repercussions will ring into every corner of our lives for a long time[/b].

I share the same sentiments. However, I feel this IS the beginning of "the big one". All the debt and mal-investment is coming undone. Trump will be pegged as the Herbert Hoover of this generation and will be blamed for this. Trump may have something to do with starting this market slide, but the Fed all past presidents (signing off on more debt) are mainly responsible. For the record I am apolitical and simply stating my observations.

Confirmed... this is the WORST December and Christmas eve market drop in stock market history.

The longest bull market in stock market history is now over... good riddance. All the bears and sites like Zerohedge can finally say "we told you so".

We will soon realize the importance of/for holding precious metals. So far, there has been no panic or blood on the street. I believe the real S will HTF sometime in 2019. It will not go straight down though... the Fed will probably try to pull a rabbit out of it's ass in order to rescue the market.

[Recyclersteve]

...
If the Fed raises rates again, that's going to kill the market.

Narrator: They did.. And it did.

It is more complicated than that. There are way too many moving parts to blame it all on interest rates. If the tariff battle with China was really and truly over, I imagine we'd have a massive stock market rally (even with interest rates going up). Think about it this way. Interest rates, even at 2.5%, are way below historic norms. So you could argue that stimulus is occurring until rates go to a more normal figure, say, 3.5% to 4.0%. Then I think we could argue that the Fed isn't really goosing the economy like they have since 2008.

When rates are cheap, and they STILL ARE, you have lots of people who don't deserve to be in business taking risks and setting up shop. Higher rates have a way of weeding out these marginal performers, who don't really deserve to be in business long-term. It is, for lack of a better term, a type of cleansing.

I felt so sorry when you had savers (who had been thrifty and worked hard their entire lives) have to settle for 1/100% interest rates for years. That was extremely unfair to them. I remember banks bragging about CD's that paid less than 1/4%. Cmon! That is extremely unfair to savers to have to settle for that. And there are people, right or wrong, who don't want to take lots of chances in the stock market. If you had barely enough money to live off for the rest of your life and didn't want to risk it, would you roll the dice on the stock market.

So while Trump may have had successes in his term in office (and I respect his record overall), his being a whiner about interest rates that are still very low is going overboard IMHO. He appointed Fed Chair Powell himself- you would think he would have had ample opportunity to size him up adequately before Powell took his position. Trump truly reminds me of a spoiled rich kid who pouts and bullies others when he doesn't get his way. He's on, what, his third wife. His businesses have declared bankruptcy something like four times. Good luck in trying to modify economic cycles- booms and busts will happen no matter what we do.

[Recyclersteve]

...
If the Fed raises rates again, that's going to kill the market.

Narrator: They did.. And it did.

It is more complicated than that. There are way too many moving parts to blame it all on interest rates. If the tariff battle with China was really and truly over, I imagine we'd have a massive stock market rally (even with interest rates going up). Think about it this way. Interest rates, even at 2.5%, are way below historic norms. So you could argue that stimulus is occurring until rates go to a more normal figure, say, 3.5% to 4.0%. Then I think we could argue that the Fed isn't really goosing the economy like they have since 2008.

When rates are cheap, and they STILL ARE, you have lots of people who don't deserve to be in business taking risks and setting up shop. Higher rates have a way of weeding out these marginal performers, who don't really deserve to be in business long-term. It is, for lack of a better term, a type of cleansing.

I felt so sorry when you had savers (who had been thrifty and worked hard their entire lives) have to settle for 1/100% interest rates for years. That was extremely unfair to them. I remember banks bragging about CD's that paid less than 1/4%. Cmon! That is extremely unfair to savers to have to settle for that. And there are people, right or wrong, who don't want to take lots of chances in the stock market. If you had barely enough money to live off for the rest of your life and didn't want to risk it, would you roll the dice on the stock market.

So while Trump may have had successes in his term in office (and I respect his record overall), his being a whiner about interest rates that are still very low is going overboard IMHO. He appointed Fed Chair Powell himself- you would think he would have had ample opportunity to size him up adequately before Powell took his position. Trump truly reminds me of a spoiled rich kid who pouts and bullies others when he doesn't get his way. He's on, what, his third wife. His businesses have declared bankruptcy something like four times. Good luck in trying to modify economic cycles- booms and busts will happen no matter what we do.

[bankmining]

DOW +1086
S&P +116

[IdahoCopper]

DOW +1086
S&P +116

PPT >activated <


n.b. Plunge Protection Team

[Treetop]

DOW +1086
S&P +116

PPT >activated <


n.b. Plunge Protection Team

Is this what happened? To me it seems more like weve had underlying issues for many many years that we cannot ignore forever but as a laymen I see no reason they were triggered now. It seems more like the media talked down the markets but when the holiday numbers came out people bought in at reduced rates. Im pretty sure I know most of the big underlying issues, what Im not aware of is why it would fall apart right now as some think we are seeing. what am I missing? Markets seem rather emotion based at times. If not all the time. The few stocks and prices I ever followed in depth seemed to react more emotionally then logically as best I could tell. Especially crop futures, lol. they have massive swings before apparently any "experts" even talk to more then a handful of farmers.

[IdahoCopper]

Big Internet outage across the USA today. Estimaed to require 24-48 hrs to fix. Yeaaaaah, riiiiight.

It is a good stealthy way to put the brakes on the stock market without declaring a bank holiday.

ITS ALL A SCAM.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

+1000 DOW points seems impressive, but it's just a 5% gain. One day +1000 point rallies do NOT happen in a bull market, only a bear market.

The DOW actually had two of it's best one day % gains (9% and 11%) in October 2008 (both bear market rallies).

As I mentioned previously, bear markets never go straight down. Bear market rallies are often very quick and usually surprise the hell out of traders.

Another big rally occurred today (Thursday 12/27). The DOW was down about -600 points, then came all the way back and ended up +260.

I love bear market rallies, because all I have to do is get long and ride on the coattails of the algos. I did VERY well today, my best trading day in weeks. Easy money.

Very interesting and crazy times we are living in.

[Recyclersteve]

I agree that the Plunge Protection Team could have been behind the rallys the last two days. No way to know for sure, of course.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I just re-read this entire thread. Did the OP end up selling all his silver?

What I thought was a bear market starting towards the end of 2018 was just a -20% correction. The Fed pulled another one out of their ass and the invisible hand came to the rescue. It's going to have to be something serious, like a black swan event, or a major bank failure to truly crash it. TPTB are going to do everything in their power to keep this POS propped up. Yup, it's ALL a scam!

[IdahoCopper]

I sold a lot of it at $17. I still have a bit.

Is it over $17 yet?

[JadeDragon]

Well located Real Estate is a perfectly acceptable alternative to gold and silver. You can't move real estate (minus a point for it) but you can generate income or use it yourself for a residence or business or to grow food etc. (Plus a point for real estate). You can't just buy and sell real estate in small quantiles pretty much instantly like you can metal. However you can improve real estate (physically or by government approvals) which you can't do to metals.

[IdahoCopper]

I met an older guy in LA, he was a potential investor in a multimillion dollar satellite project.

He made his money with bare land. "Nothing can go wrong with bare land." is what he said.

He would find out early where the LA area freeway system will have exits and on ramps. Then buy land by the acre and sell it 5 or 10 years later by the square foot.

He was worth over $100 million.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Well located Real Estate is a perfectly acceptable alternative to gold and silver. You can't move real estate (minus a point for it) but you can generate income or use it yourself for a residence or business or to grow food etc. (Plus a point for real estate). You can't just buy and sell real estate in small quantiles pretty much instantly like you can metal. However you can improve real estate (physically or by government approvals) which you can't do to metals.

You cannot sell land or RE instantly like you can with metal. Metals do not need to abide by zoning laws, no maintenance fees either. No dealing with bad tenants or evictions. You can even avoid reporting and paying taxes on sales if you're cautious/crafty about it.