Big Day for Silver- 6/20/19 (Thurs.)

[Recyclersteve]

I was noticing that (per Kitco) silver went up .385 on Thursday. That was a 2.6% up move and the biggest up move in terms of percentage since the 3.4% move up on 8/29/17, 1 year 9 1/2 months ago. Of course, one day does not make a trend and I've seen quite a few false breakouts in silver over the years. Also, I imagine that there are people on this site who won't really believe in a breakout till silver hits something like $25-30/oz. I can't say I blame that line of reasoning, but it is nice to have at least something positive to say about the nice little one day move we just had.

I don't personally attribute it to any news that I can think of. Silver is a small enough market where it can be manipulated by a small group of traders or perhaps even a single trader.

All that said, perhaps this move is worth watching.

P.S. I got the price action in the charts area on Kitco and had the boxes checked that said "View Charts and Data".

[Gamecock]

probably due to the fed's announcement

[Thogey]

Or war.

[Market Harmony]

This is just the beginning for those of us that have been patiently waiting. The real question is how high will it go and how long will that take?

[Thogey]

This is just the beginning for those of us that have been patiently waiting. The real question is how high will it go and how long will that take?

Your opinion matters a lot. Why do you think this is just the beginning? If anyone here has a legitimate answer to this question, it is you.

Thanks

[Market Harmony]

This is just the beginning for those of us that have been patiently waiting. The real question is how high will it go and how long will that take?

Your opinion matters a lot. Why do you think this is just the beginning? If anyone here has a legitimate answer to this question, it is you.

Thanks

I'm not a conspiracy theorist in general, but I do not deny its presence. As such, I do not buy into the reports of widespread manipulation in the silver market. Yes, it does exist to some extent, but not for major moves like what we saw 10 years ago. I think this is just the beginning because of the price action in the past 10 years and where, on a chart, I see gaps in volume adjusted price. There is a bit of technical knowledge required to fully understand this and certain vocabulary needed to communicate the facts. There is also a fair weight on experience that gives rise to reasonable assumptions that I am making in regards to the direction and peak of the upcoming move in metals. Without fully expressing all of this, let's just say that I've ingested something and my gut tells me it is good.

http://schrts.co/jegQMzJs

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

This is just the beginning for those of us that have been patiently waiting. The real question is how high will it go and how long will that take?

Your opinion matters a lot. Why do you think this is just the beginning? If anyone here has a legitimate answer to this question, it is you.

Thanks

I'm not a conspiracy theorist in general, but I do not deny its presence. As such, I do not buy into the reports of widespread manipulation in the silver market. Yes, it does exist to some extent, but not for major moves like what we saw 10 years ago. I think this is just the beginning because of the price action in the past 10 years and where, on a chart, I see gaps in volume adjusted price. There is a bit of technical knowledge required to fully understand this and certain vocabulary needed to communicate the facts. There is also a fair weight on experience that gives rise to reasonable assumptions that I am making in regards to the direction and peak of the upcoming move in metals. Without fully expressing all of this, let's just say that I've ingested something and my gut tells me it is good.

http://schrts.co/jegQMzJs

There has been widespread manipulation in the silver market for many years. No one needs to "buy into it" because it's a proven fact.

Why would any trader dump 1000's of silver futures contracts onto the market all at once?... Especially during a period where not much trading activity is going on? Answer: TO DROP/MANIPULATE THE PRICE LOWER. Also, if you want to get out of a position at the highest price, you would not dump 1000's of contracts at one time, you would do it gradually when the market is most active.

[Market Harmony]

Eh hmm, read: "widespread" Even if it is 5 players working in tandem, it is still not widespread. I do not deny the existence of manipulation.

[Thogey]

There is a segment of silver bugs who are convinced there is no truth in pricing. It's all manipulation.

I'm pretty sure MH knows the silver market. Take heed, as he is a business man who is not emotionally involved.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Eh hmm, read: "widespread" Even if it is 5 players working in tandem, it is still not widespread. I do not deny the existence of manipulation.

It doesn't have to be "widespread" when a few a-hole traders can naked short 1000's of contracts and dump them all at once to knock the price down $1-5 each time they do it. This has been done over and over and over again since May 2011. The good news is this tactic isn't working as well as it used to.

We have a long way to go. It's going to be a struggle to get back to $50. I imagine there are lots of FOMO bag holders who bought in the $30's and $40's who want to get out at even.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

There is a segment of silver bugs who are convinced there is no truth in pricing. It's all manipulation.

I'm pretty sure MH knows the silver market. Take heed, as he is a business man who is not emotionally involved.

There has been massive manipulation of silver prices over the last 8 years. That's not emotion, it's a fact.

All the evidence is out there, yet you still refuse to acknowledge it or believe it.

[Thogey]

I imagine there are lots of FOMO bag holders who bought in the $30's and $40's who want to get out at even.

They were burned by emotion.

[68Camaro]

I've become convinced it is a mixture of USD manipulation (which definitively exists because that's what the FED is doing with controlled interest rates and by selling and buying T-bills - but the major T-bill holders also have power to do the same), combined with sheer inflation, combined with periodic market leveraged trading (no different than with stocks, except that there are fewer regulators watching the players take advantage of the rubes) combined with the occasional FOMO rise and panicked mini-collapse. I'm watching the combination of inflation and USD manipulation as the primary driver. The blips here and there I ignore.

[Thogey]

68camaro is also one of the smart ones. Thanks for your opinion.

Everything bought and sold with borrowed money is a manipulated market. Including the debt from which it is traded. It' s the way of the world and it has been that way since the time of Christ (currency trading/manipulation). The US did it in the 1800s. This is the reason for the trade dollar, to compensate for small dollars.

We can jump up and down and bitch and cry all we want to. But it is what it is. It does not matter if the free market does not drive silver.

If there were no margin, the price of silver might be much lower. "Cash only" would lower demand, wouldn't it?

[Recyclersteve]

I imagine there are lots of FOMO bag holders who bought in the $30's and $40's who want to get out at even.

They were burned by emotion.

Totally agree with both of these comments.

[Recyclersteve]

I should have added that gold just closed above $1,400/oz. for the first time since August 29, 2013. This is really starting to look interesting.

[Market Harmony]

Eh hmm, read: "widespread" Even if it is 5 players working in tandem, it is still not widespread. I do not deny the existence of manipulation.

It doesn't have to be "widespread" when a few a-hole traders can naked short 1000's of contracts and dump them all at once to knock the price down $1-5 each time they do it. This has been done over and over and over again since May 2011. The good news is this tactic isn't working as well as it used to.

We have a long way to go. It's going to be a struggle to get back to $50. I imagine there are lots of FOMO bag holders who bought in the $30's and $40's who want to get out at even.

I don't think that wanting to make some money makes you an a-hole. Look, they see a weakness and they exploit it. That's life and if you were in their shoes with their bankroll, you would not act all righteous and say to the world, "Hey everyone, look at this potential profit that I am going to expose in order to make it not possible for me (or anyone else) to exploit" No. No way. That's not how this works. That's not life. And many would argue that if you were to act in this way that you would be the fool. These traders are taking a risk to manipulate a market... there are significant consequences if their trade goes awry. I think that what you might rail against more is not the traders, but the system in place that lets the trader act as they do. i.e. fractional accounting in the futures market of a ratio that is unreasonable to accommodate real life needs of the producers and procurers of the commodity. Because this ratio is too big, it opens the door for speculators and what you deem to be "widespread manipulation." In your scenario, there are boogeymen out to get us. But, what the real scenario is is that there are people who understand the market and with their resources of network and money can swing the proverbial odds in their favor legally to work within the commodity trading system. Ethics aside, they are simply using brains and brawn for profit.

Your second point of FOMO speculators is right on. In the big scheme of things, these types are small hands. Therefore, the impact that speculators have on the market really only makes a temporary localized difference. As the chain of custody moves, the larger market absorbs the impact of all transactions. This is precisely why we need bullion banks and futures markets. They smooth the balance of trade between parties so that the impact is minimized on a local market. To understand this a little better, just imagine that Elon Musk wants to buy all the physical silver in California. As he continues to buy, the local (CA) supply diminishes and local premiums will rise temporarily. The only action that all of the sellers to Elon need to take is to immediately buy silver (whether in physical or futures) and wait for delivery. Upon delivery the premiums return to normal and Elon runs out of money trying to corner CA silver market. Theoretical Elon's actions do not affect the price of bullion on a macro level because the larger market absorbs his actions in the microeconomy of silver on CA. The reverse happens just as easily on the sell side.

I think what happens for FOMO is just that... fear giving rise to action. If Elon tells the world what he is doing, then the news drives others to act similarly and a snow balling effect then perpetuates in the market and big moves can happen outside of the local CA silver economy. Keep your head down and focus on the uses of and supply/demand profile of physical silver. If we legitimately need more than available supply, then long term price trend will be higher. If we need less or supply is outstripping demand, then price will trend lower. Everything between long-term peaks and troughs in price is very simply the spot market making the minor adjustments along the way to compensate for the actions of speculators and those evil pesky profiteering traders.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Eh hmm, read: "widespread" Even if it is 5 players working in tandem, it is still not widespread. I do not deny the existence of manipulation.

It doesn't have to be "widespread" when a few a-hole traders can naked short 1000's of contracts and dump them all at once to knock the price down $1-5 each time they do it. This has been done over and over and over again since May 2011. The good news is this tactic isn't working as well as it used to.

We have a long way to go. It's going to be a struggle to get back to $50. I imagine there are lots of FOMO bag holders who bought in the $30's and $40's who want to get out at even.

I don't think that wanting to make some money makes you an a-hole. Look, they see a weakness and they exploit it. That's life and if you were in their shoes with their bankroll, you would not act all righteous and say to the world, "Hey everyone, look at this potential profit that I am going to expose in order to make it not possible for me (or anyone else) to exploit" No. No way. That's not how this works. That's not life. And many would argue that if you were to act in this way that you would be the fool. These traders are taking a risk to manipulate a market... there are significant consequences if their trade goes awry. I think that what you might rail against more is not the traders, but the system in place that lets the trader act as they do. i.e. fractional accounting in the futures market of a ratio that is unreasonable to accommodate real life needs of the producers and procurers of the commodity. Because this ratio is too big, it opens the door for speculators and what you deem to be "widespread manipulation." In your scenario, there are boogeymen out to get us. But, what the real scenario is is that there are people who understand the market and with their resources of network and money can swing the proverbial odds in their favor legally to work within the commodity trading system. Ethics aside, they are simply using brains and brawn for profit.

So fraud is okay with you? I guess it's okay if "legal fraud"

How about the little people that took the other side of those trades... they got their clocks cleaned. Again, you seem okay with that.

Traders/banks made billions spoofing and naked shorting PMs (especially Ag), but only paid millions in fines = A-holes!

Elon Musk is a sociopath. Judging by your apathy, you could be too.

[Thogey]

Elon Musk is a sociopath. Judging by your apathy, you could be too.

What the hell is your problem?

[Changechecker]

Read through this and I don't see Market Harmony taking a side. I see some very well written thought out sharing of information.
I am one of the little people who learned a lesson. Nobody forced me to buy in at $30.00 it was my greed. Plain and simple. FOMO.
Sounds like others here learned the same lesson I did. That's not anyone else's fault.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Elon Musk is a sociopath. Judging by your apathy, you could be too.

What the hell is your problem?

Minimalizing criminal activity as a legal loop-hole is the problem.

TONS of documented evidence out there to back up everything I've posted here. Arguing over semantics, emotions and hypothetical scenarios is ridiculous. Facts are facts.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Read through this and I don't see Market Harmony taking a side. I see some very well written thought out sharing of information.
I am one of the little people who learned a lesson. Nobody forced me to buy in at $30.00 it was my greed. Plain and simple. FOMO.
Sounds like others here learned the same lesson I did. That's not anyone else's fault.

It's not about who is right or wrong, it's about facts.

You should've gotten even more greedy at $13-14. At least you didn't buy at the top or in the $40's like a lot of people here did... that's why so many are bitter and angry. PMs are a L-O-N-G term investment. All one needs to do is be patient and hang on. Unfortunately, the majority of people are not patient, they want instant gratification.

[Market Harmony]

Sociopath? I have my own opinion, but I'll let others judge.

I'm not sure if you are reading exactly what I'm writing, or reading into what I'm writing about. Substitute anyone else's name with Elon Musk and nothing changes about what I expressed. And when someone says, "ethics aside" they are recognizing that an ethical boundary, whether crossed or not, exists; however, it is not pertinent to the conversation or statement they are making. If you want to have a conversation about how the real world makes you feel, then I'm not your guy- especially if you think that I am a sociopath. If you want to talk about how the market system and regulation is defined and actions that people take which affect the dynamics of the market, then maybe I have something to share if you're peaceful.

[IdahoCopper]

"Don't hate the player, hate the game."

Ice-T, 1999

[Rosco]

Read through this and I don't see Market Harmony taking a side. I see some very well written thought out sharing of information.
I am one of the little people who learned a lesson. Nobody forced me to buy in at $30.00 it was my greed. Plain and simple. FOMO.
Sounds like others here learned the same lesson I did. That's not anyone else's fault.

It's not about who is right or wrong, it's about facts.

You should've gotten even more greedy at $13-14. At least you didn't buy at the top or in the $40's like a lot of people here did... that's why so many are bitter and angry. PMs are a L-O-N-G term investment. All one needs to do is be patient and hang on. Unfortunately, the majority of people are not patient, they want instant gratification.

Your investments thru this forum is ZIP So your comments have Little Value to ME