"Its getting REAL"

[neilgin1]

brothers, for your perusal.....i know we always "knew", but i would be remiss if i didnt share this article, God love you all, n.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/i ... ous-metals

[silverflake]

Yeah, I watched Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Coins today on the "Arcadia Economics" youtube.com channel and if anyone is familiar with Andy he is knowledgeable if a bit hyperbolic in his presenting style but he is saying that he's doing the equivalent of a months worth of orders each day now. Product, especially silver, is tight and premiums are up across the board.

It's like Neil said, we all knew it all along but now that things are getting hairy, it's still a very unsettling feeling.


If you can find it, stack it.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Yeah, I watched Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Coins today on the "Arcadia Economics" youtube.com channel and if anyone is familiar with Andy he is knowledgeable if a bit hyperbolic in his presenting style but he is saying that he's doing the equivalent of a months worth of orders each day now. Product, especially silver, is tight and premiums are up across the board.

It's like Neil said, we all knew it all along but now that things are getting hairy, it's still a very unsettling feeling.

If you can find it, stack it.

Although Andy occasionally provides good information, he has said "I've never seen anything like this before" about 1000x in the past and nothing happened. The guy tends to hype and fear monger in order to sell product. People are concerned about the regional banking crisis. History shows that the fed and treasury will backstop and bailout everyone. Once the concern fades, ppl stop buying, inventory returns and premiums come back down. This has happened many times since 2008.

Longer term stackers of this forum should have more than enough PMs by now. You should not find yourself still needing/wanting to buy at these exorbitant premiums. Anything extra at this point should be icing on the cake.

FYI, "Arcadia Economics" gets paid to pump certain mining stocks. Caveat emptor.

[68Camaro]

Yeah, I watched Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin Coins today on the "Arcadia Economics" youtube.com channel and if anyone is familiar with Andy he is knowledgeable if a bit hyperbolic in his presenting style but he is saying that he's doing the equivalent of a months worth of orders each day now. Product, especially silver, is tight and premiums are up across the board.

It's like Neil said, we all knew it all along but now that things are getting hairy, it's still a very unsettling feeling.

If you can find it, stack it.

Although Andy occasionally provides good information, he has said "I've never seen anything like this before" about 1000x in the past and nothing happened. The guy tends to hype and fear monger in order to sell product. People are concerned about the regional banking crisis. History shows that the fed and treasury will backstop and bailout everyone. Once the concern fades, ppl stop buying, inventory returns and premiums come back down. This has happened many times since 2008.

Also, longer term members of this forum should have more than enough PMs by now. You should not find yourself still needing/wanting to buy at these exorbitant premiums. Anything extra at this point should be icing on the cake.

Agree, but I've met Andy, and while the hyperbole is definitely there, I believe it is genuinely motivated out of fear of what he sees coming. That he has been wrong on timing doesn't make him any more wrong in the conclusion than any of the rest of us who see the same thing but have taken the injudicious risk of attempting to predict timing of events. 10 years ago I made a proclamation in writing to a number of close friends that I didn't see the markets lasting past 2020; and yet here we are. I could argue that Trump postponed events by his 4 years, but even at that I still underestimated TPTB's willingness to do literally anything not only legal but illegal to kick the can down the road. So I stopped trying to predict timing. Andy could be (maybe even probably is) wrong yet again on timing, but he sees the growing fear in the market; he's been one of those long predicting the loss of the petrodollar, and that time is definitely getting closer and closer. China now has us in their active sights, they are no longer even trying to hide their aspirations, and the new cold war is on. I tend to think the only reason China hasn't acted more forcefully is that they see us appearing to self-destruct right in front of their eyes (aided by their various pushes in that direction, including funding the Bidens). So they may hold off a year or three to see if we just collapse on our own, without a hot war.

[Recyclersteve]

I have no clue where silver will be 10 years from now or even 5. I want to make a quick buck on a decent trade in the short-term. Think about Miles Franklin saying they are getting a month’s worth of business in a day. That is truly spectacular! I’d love to be able to buy stock in Miles Franklin, but I don’t believe they are publicly traded.

HOWEVER, a stock I’ve mentioned several times over the years is A-Mark Precious Metals (Ticker: AMRK). The stock is up some in recent days, but is still dirt cheap IMHO. Several on this site and elsewhere have done well with the stock. This could be good for a quick buck or possibly even as a long-term hold.

Personally, I’d rather buy AMRK stock right now (vs. buying physical silver and paying super high premiums above spot which could erode in a few weeks to months) as very few really understand how cheap this company is.

Here is another way to look at this. Let’s say you buy physical silver now. Let’s say the moment you get home to show off your purchase, a spouse or significant other gets into a big argument with you and demands that you sell back to the dealer immediately. Fortunately, the market is unchanged the next day, but you could still lose something like 20% because of the dealer’s markup.

With a stock, you might lose, say 5-10 cents a share. On a roughly $3,000 purchase, the total spread would be perhaps only $5-10. That’s only 1/3 to 1/6 of 1%, which is TINY compared to physical silver. AND OF COURSE, you wouldn’t have to worry about where to hide it and how to insure it.

Another couple items. Quarterly earnings are expected to be announced during the week of May 3rd. This recent wild activity announced to the world online thanks to Miles Franklin should have many AMRK shareholders buying even more shares. Also, company insiders own a very sizable 23.99% of the stock. Three times since late 2020 they announced special one-time cash dividends. 11/20: a special $1.50 per share dividend was paid. 9/21: A special $2.00 per share dividend was paid. 9/22: a special $1.00 dividend was paid. These are above any beyond the regular 20 cent quarterly cash dividends. Insiders likely believe in these dividends because they personally profit from them! Think about how much more flush they are with cash now with all this extra activity. There is no way to know for sure. They can use that extra cash to buy out a competitor or acquire new physical inventory, so you never know for sure.

Oh yeah, short sellers are not betting heavily against AMRK, so that’s another good sign. About 2.7% of the shares have people behind them betting the stock will go down instead of up. I’m not the least bit concerned about this.

Sure, I have physical silver as well. My personal preference is half dollars and silver ASE’s. But I suffered a large theft loss in late 2019, and only got about 7% back even though two people are in jail now.

Think about diversity. If all you have is physical silver, consider stock as well.

This is one of very few companies I can think of which are CHEAP right now! One other cheap stock right now is Charles Schwab (SCHW), but that’s a story for a different time. It shouldn’t take too much research to find out why a well-known company like Schwab is so cheap.

Please be sure to read my disclaimer below before taking any action on either stock.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I have no clue where silver will be 10 years from now or even 5. I want to make a quick buck on a decent trade in the short-term. Think about Miles Franklin saying they are getting a month’s worth of business in a day. That is truly spectacular! I’d love to be able to buy stock in Miles Franklin, but I don’t believe they are publicly traded.

HOWEVER, a stock I’ve mentioned several times over the years is A-Mark Precious Metals (Ticker: AMRK). The stock is up some in recent days, but is still dirt cheap IMHO. Several on this site and elsewhere have done well with the stock. This could be good for a quick buck or possibly even as a long-term hold.

Personally, I’d rather buy AMRK stock right now (vs. buying physical silver and paying super high premiums above spot which could erode in a few weeks to months) as very few really understand how cheap this company is.

Here is another way to look at this. Let’s say you buy physical silver now. Let’s say the moment you get home to show off your purchase, a spouse or significant other gets into a big argument with you and demands that you sell back to the dealer immediately. Fortunately, the market is unchanged the next day, but you could still lose something like 20% because of the dealer’s markup.

With a stock, you might lose, say 5-10 cents a share. On a roughly $3,000 purchase, the total spread would be perhaps only $5-10. That’s only 1/3 to 1/6 of 1%, which is TINY compared to physical silver. AND OF COURSE, you wouldn’t have to worry about where to hide it and how to insure it.

Another couple items. Quarterly earnings are expected to be announced during the week of May 3rd. This recent wild activity announced to the world online thanks to Miles Franklin should have many AMRK shareholders buying even more shares. Also, company insiders own a very sizable 23.99% of the stock. Three times since late 2020 they announced special one-time cash dividends. 11/20: a special $1.50 per share dividend was paid. 9/21: A special $2.00 per share dividend was paid. 9/22: a special $1.00 dividend was paid. These are above any beyond the regular 20 cent quarterly cash dividends. Insiders likely believe in these dividends because they personally profit from them! Think about how much more flush they are with cash now with all this extra activity. There is no way to know for sure. They can use that extra cash to buy out a competitor or acquire new physical inventory, so you never know for sure.

Oh yeah, short sellers are not betting heavily against AMRK, so that’s another good sign. About 2.7% of the shares have people behind them betting the stock will go down instead of up. I’m not the least bit concerned about this.

Sure, I have physical silver as well. My personal preference is half dollars and silver ASE’s. But I suffered a large theft loss in late 2019, and only got about 7% back even though two people are in jail now.

Think about diversity. If all you have is physical silver, consider stock as well.

This is one of very few companies I can think of which are CHEAP right now! One other cheap stock right now is Charles Schwab (SCHW), but that’s a story for a different time. It shouldn’t take too much research to find out why a well-known company like Schwab is so cheap.

Please be sure to read my disclaimer below before taking any action on either stock.

When market tanks EVERYTHING goes down. Dividends don't matter if the stock price keeps dropping. These companies could fail or go BK for many reasons.

Question... Why do you keep jacking threads pushing stocks on here? This is what the economic section of the forum is for. Someone here may follow your recommendations, lose money and blame you for it.

Judging by the lack of responses here, not many ppl seem to care about these stocks recs.

[Lemon Thrower]

I lost money buying silver. Is this the right forum to blame people about it?

[coindood]

I lost money buying silver. Is this the right forum to blame people about it?

That would be the Jim Cramer thread.

[franklin]

You don't lose money buying it. Just selling.

[ScrapMetal]

You don't lose money buying it. Just selling.

Unless it is fake and totally worthless.
My mortgage broker was in the coin business and telling me how he got scammed to gets worsethe point of loosing his coin business by buying thousands of dollars of fake silver.
You would think being in the business, one would know better, but I guess not. He was so dumb, on my VA loan application he marked me as deceased and indicated that the loan was to be in my wife's name as a survivor of a veteran. The story gets worse, as he accused me of being so meticulous in reading all the paperwork, and somehow it was now my fault for actually being alive.
Needless to say, my Realtor, who recommended him, was not too pleased to hear that story.

[Recyclersteve]

When market tanks EVERYTHING goes down. Dividends don't matter if the stock price keeps dropping. These companies could fail or go BK for many reasons.

Question... Why do you keep jacking threads pushing stocks on here? This is what the economic section of the forum is for. Someone here may follow your recommendations, lose money and blame you for it.

Judging by the lack of responses here, not many ppl seem to care about these stocks recs.

Cu Penny Hoarder:

I believe in free speech and have put considerable thought and effort into what I say. My carefully worded disclaimer speaks for itself. Of course someone could blame me, just like they could blame you for saying (inaccurately) that in down markets everything goes down. Even if it was true, you adapt and learn about short selling to profit from it going down.

The apparent quiet on this site can be quite misleading. I’ve had a number of members here send me personal messages thanking me for stock information and taking the time to provide it for others.

I am a pay it forward type person and sincerely enjoy helping others even when they will never have a way to pay me back.

I have nothing personal against you. I don’t know why you feel the need to get so worked up about anything having to do with the stock market. Was there a big stock loss or a bankruptcy or fraud in your past that hurt you?

If you don’t like what I say, so be it!

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

When market tanks EVERYTHING goes down. Dividends don't matter if the stock price keeps dropping. These companies could fail or go BK for many reasons.

Question... Why do you keep jacking threads pushing stocks on here? This is what the economic section of the forum is for. Someone here may follow your recommendations, lose money and blame you for it.

Judging by the lack of responses here, not many ppl seem to care about these stocks recs.

Cu Penny Hoarder:

I believe in free speech and have put considerable thought and effort into what I say. My carefully worded disclaimer speaks for itself. Of course someone could blame me, just like they could blame you for saying (inaccurately) that in down markets everything goes down. Even if it was true, you adapt and learn about short selling to profit from it going down.

The apparent quiet on this site can be quite misleading. I’ve had a number of members here send me personal messages thanking me for stock information and taking the time to provide it for others.

I am a pay it forward type person and sincerely enjoy helping others even when they will never have a way to pay me back.

I have nothing personal against you. I don’t know why you feel the need to get so worked up about anything having to do with the stock market. Was there a big stock loss or a bankruptcy or fraud in your past that hurt you?

If you don’t like what I say, so be it!

It's nothing personal, and I'm not "worked up".

I normally comment about the USA and how things are rapidly disintegrating (I'm sure you can agree with that). Besides water, food and ammo, I rarely recommend anyone invest in specific things. I have recommended ppl buy silver when spot price and premiums were very low; i.e. 90% junk when it was $0.29 and $0.49 cents above spot, and also in March 2020 when silver was $12.

Majority of the people here most likely have some type of standard investment vehicle (401k/IRA or pension fund). They're not traders and probably don't even know the first thing about what a short or a put is. Also, you're not a fiduciary.

All I'm asking here is that you please save your stock picks for the economic forum and stop jacking threads that have nothing to do with trading stocks.

[neilgin1]

brothers, for your perusal.....i know we always "knew", but i would be remiss if i didnt share this article, God love you all, n.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/i ... ous-metals

Michael Burry shall speak for me:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CLhqjOzoyE&t=9s[/youtube]

[68Camaro]

brothers, for your perusal.....i know we always "knew", but i would be remiss if i didnt share this article, God love you all, n.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/i ... ous-metals

Michael Burry shall speak for me:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CLhqjOzoyE&t=9s[/youtube]

Good short speech by Burry in his "younger" days. Thanks Neil. Man it must feel good (even if you are sad that you are found to be right) to know enough of both the data and how the systems work to see what is coming and why, with such foresight. The best most of us can do is see some medium-term inevitable, but not usually the details of why or when. Burry isn't saying what he is betting on coming next, but if I recall he has bought gold, and he sees a big crash coming, with the small down-turn of the past 18 months just the foretaste.

[68Camaro]

The US and the world has so many "issues" going on that it's hard (for me) to tell which direction the next chaotic event will come from. In no particular order (and me not being the first by any means to raise any of these):

1) As long as the forces currently in USG executive office remain in power, the previous view of the US among most of the world as a bastion of light, hope, and security will continue to fade until no one trusts or believes anything we say or do (we are very nearly there), and those who wish us harm will be emboldened (already in play). Among many other things that will result in is an escalation of on-going wars related to Russia and (new wars) China.

2) The destruction of the US public educational system over the past 20 years has combined with the leftist infiltration of many legislatures and much of the judiciary, the end of almost all independent journalism standards as we once knew them, and the takeover of social media by leftists, which has collectively resulted in the near total corruption and absolute brainwashing of the vast majority of those under 40 (especially those under 30). (Exceptions abound, of course, but exceptions prove the rule.) One of the objectives has been the demonizing of historical American values and marginalizing and twisting of laws and norms in the advancement of the destruction of America from within. The government and the media lie through their teeth, and when you see them accusing others of evil, you can be sure that is exactly the evil that they themselves are responsible for. The lies have become so easy for them that I think many of them start to believe the lies themselves. In a few more years we will be Venezuela (except for being larger and mostly English speaking, and with nowhere to go to escape).

3) The eventual devaluation of the USD and the acceleration of a turning away from the USD as a reserve currency by other countries, will create a ripple effect that ultimately will lead to massive inflation, not just the little inflation we've recently seen. That inflation along with an inability to trade for key goods necessary for survival will collapse the US economy and result in a crisis which the current forces in the USG will use to further their progress toward an authoritarian state. All preventable, but once the avalanche starts down the slope, you can't stop it.

4) The increase in the destructive duo of apathy and entitlement that is accelerating among American youth, and especially affects the emasculation of the American man into spineless "males in name only". No desire to work for the pride of working. No true interpersonal skills. Gamers living in their parent's basement, immersing themselves in Matrix-like fantasy lands, without even attempting to find a girlfriend or the guts to develop real relationships that would lead to creating a family. Stunted moral and ethics. Rage and despair that causes many to lash out and take others with them. (This is a secondary issue but one that feeds on and into everything else.)

5) The list goes on and on; I'll stop with the above. Which issue will be the primary source of the tipping point, or will they just all go over together so that it will be hard to separate what starts the collapse? To some extent, does that really matter? I'm not sure it does. And in hindsight, the collapse may already be well underway. (Some believe that - I think it is technically still reversible, but we're getting to where it would require a God-level event to reverse course.)

Those who don't see the broader universe in the same way will scoff (that's fine) but all these things support the advancement of evil in the world. Despite it's short-comings, I believe the US was a major influence for good in last third of the 19th century that set us up to be the primary force for good in the world in in the first half to two-thirds of the 20th century. But while the US is still important in the near-term, it doesn't take much to go from the top to the bottom, once the collapse starts. I believe there is a central force and orchestrator of evil behind the chaos we are seeing, as well as a God who is allowing it to happen and has predicted - no, foreseen - these events and has already incorporated it into his plan. I'm not saying this is "the end of times", but I believe we are at the start of a remarkably bad time.

[Silver4face]

68Camaro, Extremely well written! I'm not going to comment on every sentence, but I would like to comment on the educational system. When I was young, the educational system was much better than today, but even then, it had holes in it. I cringe in fear what it will be like in just 5-7 years from now. Totally agree that the under 40 crowd is brainwashed (with some exceptions). Eventually they will be running the country. OR WILL THEY!?!?!? In all likelihood we will be under complete control by people who do NOT reside in this country and never will.

[franklin]

In all likelihood we will be under complete control by people who do NOT reside in this country and never will.

That is the really frightening part.

[Tourney64]

68Camaro, I could agree more with your assessment. I think the trigger point when things accelerate will be with the US Congress not agreeing to raise the debt limit because Biden refuses to reduce spending, and we become unable to pay our debt. Hellen says June is when we run out of money.