An Analysis of Saabman’s Half Dollar Searches

[Recyclersteve]

I’m just starting this thread right now and will be adding more to it later when my wife goes to bed and I can dig up the Excel spreadsheet I created for Saabman’s extensive half dollar searches.

First, I feel it is appropriate to let everyone know that I asked Saabman if it would be ok to release this info publicly on the RealCent site. He was fine with that, so I am moving ahead.

Basically, I was very curious about something and wanted a decent sample size to work with. Saabman’s details about his EXTENSIVE SEARCHES for halves made this work nicely.

Anyone who follows Saabman’s searches closely will notice that he goes through a LOT of $500 boxes of halves. There are lots of weeks where he gets boxes on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

I was curious about how he did with full $500 boxes of halves vs. smaller amounts of halves.

I went back approximately one year and was able to input exactly 100 boxes ($50,000 face value or 100,000 halves) into my Excel spreadsheet. I think there were perhaps a couple times where he got $1,000 face in a day.

Much more to follow… I will add it in stages as time permits over the next 1-2 days or so…

[Recyclersteve]

Hopefully Saabman will see this thread and acknowledge that it is legit and that he gave permission for me to post this info.

Here is some more info on the spreadsheet detailing Saabman's searches over roughly the last year.

There were exactly 100 boxes of $500 each, so $50k in face value. I was curious about several things, but one was about how often he finds any silver whatsoever. Here is what I tallied on the $500 boxes:

0 silver coins found: 60% of the time (those are the ones with words like "skunkaroo" on them)
1 coin found: 21%
2 coins found: 6%
3-9 coins found: 9%
10 or more coins found: 4%
TOTAL: 100%

The best $500 box he had was on 11/4/22 when he found a whopping 86 silver halves and that included 20 of the 90%ers.

Now the smaller (less than $500) searches. There were only 8 of them in the past year, but a whopping 6 of the 8 (75%) had at least some silver. They ranged from as little as $20 face to $202 face. Also, there was a single lot with $460 face. More on that later.

So far we have established that the smaller lots had some silver 75% of the time and the $500 boxes had silver 40% of the time.

Now let's look at the smaller lots as a group. There were 8 lots totaling a combined $1,041.00 in halves, so an average of about $130 each. Those 8 lots in total yielded 0 pre 64's, 6 from 1964, and 31 of the 40%ers. So a total of 37 silver coins, which is 1 out of every 56.2 coins searched.

A single one of those lots was $460 in halves and it yielded a whopping 25 silver halves (all but one were 40%ers). Even when you subtract this from the totals (assuming, perhaps, it was a $500 box and a previous customer needed only $40 in halves), that still means that 1 of every 96.8 halves was silver. This is still very respectable.

Whether you use the 1 of 56.2 coins or 1 of 96.8 coins, the results for smaller quantities is very impressive IMHO. With the exception of 1 lucky year where I didn't look at many halves, I haven't had a year with my 1 of number under 100 since 2010- yes 13 years ago. From 2004-2010 my "1 of" figures were under 100 every single year. But the massive drought began in 2011 and really hasn't ended. So for Saabman to have 1 of figures under 100 for 2022-2023 is something that would make me drool!

Now let's look at the "1 of" figure for $500 boxes. For the last 100 whole boxes searched it is 1 of 456.6 halves being silver.

There are several ways to look at this. For some people (who have to drive a long way to the bank or who have very little spare time to go through them), these results would be a deal-breaker. Saabman has already indicated that he works this into his routine and doesn't have a long drive out of the way to procure halves. Assuming he can do something like going through halves while watching TV or listening to music at night, he might actually have a system that works well for him. So I can understand both sides of the equation.

That said, I did go to a bank on Tuesday that told me they had a $500 box. I turned it down and took the customer wrapped rolls they had outside that box.

Saabman, I just wish you were my neighbor so I could buy you lunch and pick your brain to see what makes you tick. You, my friend, are a huge asset to the RC community and I for one very much appreciate all the results (good or bad) that you post on this fine site.

If anyone (including Saabman) has any questions, please feel free to ask. That's all...for now.

Steve

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Is searching boxes of halves even worth the time, effort and gasoline anymore?

Me thinks not.

[Saabman]

Steve -

Thank you for the hard work on this.....impressive! When you reached out to ask permission, I was flattered that you would take the time to calculate my searches. Again, thank you. It's very cool to see the stats.....I had no idea what they were.

A couple of things, just to clear up...yes, my pick up bank is on the way home, so easy access. My dump banks are close to the office, so it gives me something to do during lunch. And much to the chagrin of my gf, yes, I sort while watching TV in the evenings.

[silverflake]

Why in the world do I find this so ABSOLUTELY FASCINATING??? Awesome works Steve! And nice work (and nice finds) Saabman!

It makes my mind tingle when someone digs under the surface of things to find out not only what other folks are doing but also, the numbers, the stats. I love stats. Not as much as I love silver but combining the two is cool.

Keep up the good work.

Keep stacking....so Steve can analyze it!

[OneBiteAtATime]

Well, that was fun to read! Nice work Steve and Saabman!

[mtalbot_ca]

Impressive!

[Catfish4u]

Steve -

Thank you for the hard work on this.....impressive! When you reached out to ask permission, I was flattered that you would take the time to calculate my searches. Again, thank you. It's very cool to see the stats.....I had no idea what they were.

A couple of things, just to clear up...yes, my pick up bank is on the way home, so easy access. My dump banks are close to the office, so it gives me something to do during lunch. And much to the chagrin of my gf, yes, I sort while watching TV in the evenings.

Awesome! Thank you for letting Steve to share and also to Steve for taking the time to compile the stats for us! Much appreciated!!

[Recyclersteve]

Here is something else to add to the mix...

I decided to look at total mintages for all (silver only) halves including Walkers, Franklins and Kennedys. I separated the 40% Kennedy halves from the 90%ers. This is what I found.

Walkers (65 dates) (485.3 million coins) (21.8% of all silver halves)
Franklins (35 dates) (465.8 million coins) (20.9% of all silver halves)
Kennedys (90%) (2 dates) (429.5 million coins) (19.3% of all silver halves)
Kennedys (40%) (6 dates) (848.5 million coins) (38.1% of all silver halves)
TOTAL (108 dates) (2.2291 billion coins) (100% of all silver halves)

Note that I'm purposely not including anything before 1916 as those are SUPER DIFFICULT (though not impossible) to find in rolls from the bank.

Right away, something jumps out to me from looking at those mintages. The Walkers, Franklins and 1964 Kennedy halves ALL HAD 400+ million coins minted and, as a result, all are 19-21% of the total silver coinage. I never would have guessed that. So you could loosely say each of those three is about 20% of the silver mintage and the 40% halves are the remaining 40% of mintage.

In theory, that means that Walkers, Franklins and 90% Kennedy halves SHOULD be found in equal quantities.

Now let's look at what Saabman and myself have actually found in the real world...

Saabman found 1 Barber (not counting that one as it is so hard to find), 0 Walkers, 6 Franklins and 39 Kennedy halves from 1964 over the past roughly 1 year. Also 173 of the 40% Kennedys.

In my personal findings (going back to 2004) I have found 169 (Walkers & Franklins combined as I never separated them out), 351 Kennedys from 1964, and 2,371 of the 40% Kennedys.

For both Saabman and myself, it appears obvious that 64 Kennedy halves are much easier to find than Franklins, which are much easier to find than Walkers. Also, 40% Kennedy halves are about twice as common (from total mintage figures) as 1964's. Yet Saabman gets 4.4x as many 40%ers as 1964s. And I've gotten a whopping 6.7x as many. Go figure.

If more people knew that, I suspect that Walkers and Franklins would command premiums over 1964 Kennedy halves just like silver American Eagles command substantial premiums above melt. The flip side is that not that many people really collect coins by date anymore. There are plenty who figure that silver is silver.

The more I look at the data, the more interesting it gets!

[Saabman]

Absolutely fascinating....

That Barber is the only one I've found. There are harder dates out there as well. The 1970 is a hard one. I think I've only found like 3 or 4 even though it's a 40%.

[Silver4face]

Excellent work Steve! I have also found that 1964 Kennedy's are much easier to find than Franklins or walkers. I have not found a walker in the last two and a half years.

[Recyclersteve]

AS PROMISED ELSEWHERE ON REALCENT...here are the final numbers for our good friend Saabman for the year 2023. I'm tracking all the postings he made on the half dollar tracking threads in calendar year 2023. Keep in mind that a note from, say, January 2nd could be about coins gone through in 2022. I can live with a minor limitation like that.

Total face value searched: $60,654.00 (121,308 halves)
90% silver halves found: 35 (including 1937, (2) 1942, 1943, 1944, 1947 Media Balboa and 1970)
40% silver halves found: 153
Total silver halves found: 188

This was 121 trips to banks. 117 of those trips were for boxes of $500 each. 2 were $1,000 in a single day. And 2 more were smaller amounts under $200. So almost every trip was for exactly $500 in halves.

For the month of December, Saabman finished with 7 trips producing silver and 4 producing no silver. So December was a very productive month.
For the year, Saabman finished with 50 trips producing silver and 71 producing no silver.
That alone tells me this guy is incredibly persistent and patient, two good gifts to have when you're a coin collector!

The 5 times where he found 10 or more silver halves at a time:
1/5: 12 (1 90%er + 11 40%ers)
5/30: 30 (3 90%ers + 27 40%ers)
6/5: 11 (4 90%ers + 7 40%ers)
11/6: 19 (3 90%ers + 16 40%ers)
12/6: 14 (0 90%ers + 14 40%ers)

As mentioned above, there were a total of 121,308 halves searched. 188 were silver. So that is 1 of every 645.26 coins or roughly 1 in every $323.00 of face value. If someone could tell you with certainty that you would get a single silver half for every $323.00 in face value searched, I imagine there are lots of people who would say, "Nah, I think I'll skip it." To anyone who says Saabman is lucky, I'd respond loudly "This guy works super hard for what he gets and therefore makes his own so-called luck!"

As mentioned earlier in this thread, I have communicated personally with Saabman to get his permission to publish these results. Hopefully this information will be helpful to Saabman and others on this fine site. And, yes, I'm glad to say I kept my promise about publishing these results in early January. Whew!

Recyclersteve

[theshoenlebens]

AS PROMISED ELSEWHERE ON REALCENT...here are the final numbers for our good friend Saabman for the year 2023. I'm tracking all the postings he made on the half dollar tracking threads in calendar year 2023. Keep in mind that a note from, say, January 2nd could be about coins gone through in 2022. I can live with a minor limitation like that.

Total face value searched: $60,654.00 (121,308 halves)
90% silver halves found: 35 (including 1937, (2) 1942, 1943, 1944, 1947 Media Balboa and 1970)
40% silver halves found: 153
Total silver halves found: 188

This was 121 trips to banks. 117 of those trips were for boxes of $500 each. 2 were $1,000 in a single day. And 2 more were smaller amounts under $200. So almost every trip was for exactly $500 in halves.

For the month of December, Saabman finished with 7 trips producing silver and 4 producing no silver. So December was a very productive month.
For the year, Saabman finished with 50 trips producing silver and 71 producing no silver.
That alone tells me this guy is incredibly persistent and patient, two good gifts to have when you're a coin collector!

The 5 times where he found 10 or more silver halves at a time:
1/5: 12 (1 90%er + 11 40%ers)
5/30: 30 (3 90%ers + 27 40%ers)
6/5: 11 (4 90%ers + 7 40%ers)
11/6: 19 (3 90%ers + 16 40%ers)
12/6: 14 (0 90%ers + 14 40%ers)

As mentioned above, there were a total of 121,308 halves searched. 188 were silver. So that is 1 of every 645.26 coins or roughly 1 in every $323.00 of face value. If someone could tell you with certainty that you would get a single silver half for every $323.00 in face value searched, I imagine there are lots of people who would say, "Nah, I think I'll skip it." To anyone who says Saabman is lucky, I'd respond loudly "This guy works super hard for what he gets and therefore makes his own so-called luck!"

As mentioned earlier in this thread, I have communicated personally with Saabman to get his permission to publish these results. Hopefully this information will be helpful to Saabman and others on this fine site. And, yes, I'm glad to say I kept my promise about publishing these results in early January. Whew!

Recyclersteve

Congratulations to Saabman for his persistence and kudos to you, Recyclersteve, for your work on this.
I think the average isn't all that bad.
Use to search myself but all the coin counting machines are no more, at any bank, within 40 miles. Blah
Chris

[68Camaro]

Yep he's gotten some great hits, but he's worked his tail off to get the finds he's had. That's a lot of work!

[Saabman]

Steve -

Thanks for all your hard work on this! I had absolutely no idea what the numbers were. It's crazy to think of the number of trips to the bank and amount of coins that have been sorted. Thanks, again, for putting this into perspective.

Happy New Year!

[Recyclersteve]

Steve -

Thanks for all your hard work on this! I had absolutely no idea what the numbers were. It's crazy to think of the number of trips to the bank and amount of coins that have been sorted. Thanks, again, for putting this into perspective.

Happy New Year!

My pleasure.

[Catfish4u]

Steve -

Thanks for all your hard work on this! I had absolutely no idea what the numbers were. It's crazy to think of the number of trips to the bank and amount of coins that have been sorted. Thanks, again, for putting this into perspective.

Happy New Year!

My pleasure.

VERY much thanks to both of you!!!