Redbook values down

[dan53]

A friend of mine has a coin store and He got his shipment of 2013 redbooks in. I compared three of my coins from the 2012 book to the 2013. ......

(2012) 1927 MS-64 peace dollar $550.00 ..................2013 red book value........$500.00
(2012) 1897-s MS-65 morgan dollar $650.00 ...............2013 red book value........(Either $600.00 or $550.00)
(2012) 1903-o MS-64 morgan dollar $600.00 ...............2013 red book value........$465.00

I know that redbook isn't a reliable price guide, but I am thinking that we may be seeing an across the board drop in numismatic price. Hope I'm wrong. Anybody else seen any numismatic oriented price drops? I was especially disappointed in the 1903-o coin's drop.

[barrytrot]

If you call common date MS64's an indicator in numismatic prices, possibly, although my guess is that this is incorrect based on the prices I've seen personally.

What I am 100% positive about: Look at auction realized prices for any key or semi-key or better conditions and the prices are all higher than last year.

The prices realized at major auctions are going up fairly well. Go to ha.com and do a search on MS67 Lincoln Cents, or MS66 Peace dollars or MS67 Morgans and check the realized prices. They are growing. In some cases dramatically.

[fb101]

Another thing to be taken into account is that the high prices may have drawn in some supply which may temporarily suppress the price some.
Still redbook isn't even a good trend indicator.

[Engineer]

I was thinking about numi price cycles just last night, and I don't think an annual price guide could keep up. Collector coins (or antiques in general) seem to be more of a "risk off" type of investment which would appreciate during economic down-cycles, and depreciate when the general economic outlook brightens.