Realcent.org

A friend of mine has a coin store and He got his shipment of 2013 redbooks in. I compared three of my coins from the 2012 book to the 2013. ......

(2012) 1927 MS-64 peace dollar $550.00 ..................2013 red book value........$500.00
(2012) 1897-s MS-65 morgan dollar $650.00 ...............2013 red book value........(Either $600.00 or $550.00)
(2012) 1903-o MS-64 morgan dollar $600.00 ...............2013 red book value........$465.00

I know that redbook isn't a reliable price guide, but I am thinking that we may be seeing an across the board drop in numismatic price. Hope I'm wrong. Anybody else seen any numismatic oriented price drops? I was especially disappointed in the 1903-o coin's drop.

If you call common date MS64's an indicator in numismatic prices, possibly, although my guess is that this is incorrect based on the prices I've seen personally.

What I am 100% positive about: Look at auction realized prices for any key or semi-key or better conditions and the prices are all higher than last year.

The prices realized at major auctions are going up fairly well. Go to ha.com and do a search on MS67 Lincoln Cents, or MS66 Peace dollars or MS67 Morgans and check the realized prices. They are growing. In some cases dramatically.

Another thing to be taken into account is that the high prices may have drawn in some supply which may temporarily suppress the price some.
Still redbook isn't even a good trend indicator.

I was thinking about numi price cycles just last night, and I don't think an annual price guide could keep up. Collector coins (or antiques in general) seem to be more of a "risk off" type of investment which would appreciate during economic down-cycles, and depreciate when the general economic outlook brightens.