Fusion wrote:There are 7,000 banks. Yes, consolidation will happen as it always does in these cycles. Then there will be DeNovo's to fill the gaps and the cycle of banking life will continue. TBTF is hot topic on the hill and its likely the largest of financial institutions will be broken up...at least that's the way the wind is blowing today.
I didn't have time earlier to dig into your claim (and often don't when people post these things), but if one can believe wiki without checking further it seems that:
In 1988, there were about 12,500 U.S. banks with less than $300 million in deposits, and about 900 with more deposits, but by 2012, there were only 4,200 banks with less than $300 million in deposits in the U.S., and over 1,800 with more.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banking_in ... ted_StatesFrom the same article, of those ~6000 banks,
the five largest banks in the United States at December 31, 2011 were JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs. In December 2011, the five largest banks' assets were equal to 56 percent of the U.S. economy, compared with 43 percent five years earlier.
So in round numbers there are less than half the number of banks in the US than there were 25 years ago, and of those remaining, the assets have shifted dramatically from the small to the large. This is not a cyclical decline as you claim, but rather a major shift in power. (Though not unlike similiar changes in many other maturing industries.)
It remains to be seen whether they will break any of the large ones up; I'm skeptical that will happen - everything DC has been doing has been the path of catering to them and encouraging them rather than the opposite.
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