Stock: Intuitive Machines (LUNR)- A Real Mover!!

[Recyclersteve]

HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD ALERT!

I want to talk some about a stock that was a mover in after hours on Tuesday, namely Intuitive Machines (LUNR). LUNR is a Houston, TX based company, not a scam stock from China, Hong Kong or Singapore- and there are plenty of scam stocks from those three countries. Although this stock first started trading around November, 2021, it was very quiet (mostly between $9.80 a share and $10.20 a share) until volume really started coming into the stock in February, 2023. Then, this is what happened to the newly discovered space exploration stock.

2/15/23 (W): Stock was as low as $10.10. It closed the day at $12.74.

2/16/23 (TH): LUNR hit a high of a whopping $51.00 a share and started to fall very fast after that. I shorted it (betting on it going down) when it fell quickly to $40.56 a share. Keep in mind it was still more than quadruple what it was the day before with no real news to justify the move.

2/22/23 (W): After closing the prior day at $37.89, LUNR reached an all-time high of $136.00 a share. No that isn't a typo! I only shorted 100 measly shares at $40.56 and had an unrealized loss of over $9,500 when it hit this peak. Ouch that was painful, but that wasn't the end of it.

2/23/23 (TH): The very day after hitting the $136.00 high, I closed out my short position by buying back the stock at only $19.56. That day the low was $17.50. I had to pay a $149.34 fee to borrow shares from my broker to sell them short, but it was well worth it. Even after paying the fee, my profit was around $1,950 (a net profit of 99.7%- almost a double) for about 2 hours of work after holding the position open for 7 days. Not too shabby! For those not comfortable with the math on selling short, this is just like buying a stock for $19.56 and then selling it for $40.56. I'll take it!

Now, let's summarize what happened and you should see why I'm so excited about this stock right now vs. 1-1/2 years ago. In the span of just 8 days this new stock (in 2023) with no news went from $10 to $136 and back down to the teens. That is extreme volatility! For someone who bought it between, say, $60 and $136 and said "I'm just gonna hold it" and couldn't afford to double down at lower prices later, they are under a lot of water even now after 1-1/2+ years. After all, the stock closed Tuesday's regular session at just $5.40 a share. Ouch!

Now that you know what this did with no news, let me add some context for Wednesday and likely the next several days to week or maybe two weeks.

LUNR was up 55% just Tuesday alone in after hours alone! It closed the regular session at $5.40. In after hours it closed at $8.40. Some would argue that extended hours trades don't count. I agree that can be the case when a stock trades 1,000-2,000 shares and is up or down sharply, but this was a volume of a whopping 17.7 million shares in after hours alone vs. about 7.5 million shares in a typical day. That is beyond substantial. I watched the move and it was up quickly early and then steadily (with minor pullbacks) for the entire session. So it wasn't a single wacky trade for 1,000 shares just before the session ended. I would honestly give the quality of the move in after hours an A+ grade.

You have to realize there are ALMOST ALWAYS people out there who think virtually every stock is overvalued and sell short, betting on it going down instead of up. I don't think this is nearly as evil as some would suggest. In fact, I've done it literally thousands of times with my own personal money. My point is this. I FULLY EXPECT that short sellers are gonna feel LOTS OF PAIN on this stock as it very likely goes much higher. I fully expect those who are short to do whatever they can to create doubt in the minds of shareholders. Some will not hesitate to make things up to get a reaction. Talk like "Didn't you hear about the pending bankruptcy last month?" or insults about corporate execs being evil are things that could potentially be used. (Clarification: I don't know of anything negative that would concern me about this stock.) I also would be very careful about reacting to what someone on CNBC or elsewhere says. Are they being paid money under the table to say something and make it sound factual when they really don't know? That one is tough to evaluate without knowing specifically who said what and why. I would love to give truth serum to anyone speaking about the stock on national TV, just to make sure they don't have an agenda!

I would honestly say that my overall track record after decades of trading stocks overall (both short and long) is somewhere between excellent and outstanding, but I've been clobbered a few times. Anyone who suggests they haven't been isn't telling you something. Perhaps they've only done a few dozen trades in their entire life or they are trading with tiny amounts of money. You get the idea.

What is my past experience with LUNR? Since early 2023 I have traded it a total of 13 times (I audited this figure personally on Tuesday) and made money each and every time. There was at least one time when the stock was overvalued and I sold it short- see above for the wild details. I think all the other trades were where I felt the stock was undervalued and I bet on it going up. I'm not saying that it went up immediately each time after I bought it. Not a chance! There were times where I bought it twice or perhaps three times before I was able to get out with a profit or wiggle my way out with a modest profit. Still, 13 for 13 is pretty darn good. Admittedly, that gives me a cushion and specific stock knowledge that I wouldn't have if this was my first ever trade on the stock.

This is NOT what I'd call a buy and hold investment. An exception could be for someone worth, say, $20-30 million who doesn't mind gambling with perhaps $1 million or so and has the ability to buy the stock 3-4 or more times if they buy high and the stock keeps coming down. See my disclaimer below before putting any hard earned money into this.

Don't expect to get out of the stock anywhere near the actual top. That would be a ridiculous goal IMHO and would only happen with a certain amount of luck. Frankly, if the stock hits, say, $70ish and I sell everything at $50ish, I would be extremely happy. Some would say that I was about 30% below the high. Two thoughts on that. When you get out of a trade, remember to leave some room for another person just buying it to make a buck. If it seems like there is no chance it can go up much more, chances are that others might feel the same way and it might be about to fall hard and fast. Remember when it fell hard in 2/23- it has never been anywhere near the peak since. Someone who sees a high hit of $70 and feels bad because they "only" got $66 for it when they sold is both greedy and gullible, a potentially dangerous combination.

I'm open to comments, but don't expect anything from me during Wednesday (from 4am EST til 11:30pm EST) as I will be focused on an endeavor which will likely pay the bills a lot faster than posting a message on a website! Hint hint!!

[NHsorter]

They make lunar landers and associated equipment. So the price jumps are events like contract & launch date announcements and the dips are when their competitors win contracts and when their lander tips over on the moon (yup). I follow a lot of space news and this company does seem promising. They seem to be delivering innovative products where a lot of others are just slow rolling and sucking as much off of the government teet as possible.

[Recyclersteve]

Thx for the feedback.

[silverflake]

Thanks Steve! I dipped my pinky toe in this AM by buying just 100 shares at $8.03. As I am posting this it is at $9.14! Pretty sweet so far, even if it is only 100 shares!

Keep us posted on developments Steve and keep up the good work!

[Recyclersteve]

Nice to hear. Sometimes with a stock that is new to me, I like to book an early modest profit just to prove to myself that I can do it. Then I bet the ranch! (Ok, just kidding about that last part)

P.S. For some reason when I have a profit and it slips away, I feel like I’ve been a little foolish. Yet there is absolutely no way to predict news events that can occur when the market is closed.

[silverflake]

Out in 2 sells. Total profit about $80. Not bad but I wasn't going to hold as that volume dried up. Perhaps it will consolidate and blast higher. Meh, I got some gas money out of it.

Thanks Steve! Profits are always fun, even if small!

[Recyclersteve]

One thing a bit different about this stock that some might consider is this. You might consider owning a very small position in the stock (even if only 1 single share now worth about $8 or so). Why? I’ve always found that this forces me to watch a stock more closely, even if it’s only a tiny amount of money I have invested in it.

It’s a bit of a trick I play on myself, especially when I think a stock could explode, but I just don’t have the time to research it closely right now. I honestly think LUNR fits that description quite well. I can EASILY see it going quickly to $20-30 or more, but I just have no way of knowing if that happens in the next month or year or even happens anytime soon. You will be ahead of others trying to pile into it if you already have a small position and can evaluate rapid price changes quickly instead of 1-2 days after they happen.

Good luck to all. Mid-October or so is when the summer doldrums often fade away and that’s not too far off.

[NHsorter]

Their next landers are scheduled to launch Q1 of next year. So depending on how that goes you might see the stock pop or tank on launch day. www.nextspaceflight.com keeps really good tabs on launch dates as they get close. Update really quickly when any dates slip.

[Recyclersteve]

Earnings are to be announced this Thursday, November 14th before market open.

Please don’t ask me to predict either the earnings or the reaction to the earnings. No guarantees, but this is one likely worth studying. I’m pretty much playing with house $ now.

[NHsorter]

Trumps new Administration is going to MASSIVELY shale up space. NASA's plans are going to shift in a big way next year. Many programs will be cancelled. Better programs will take their place. This will make or break some vendors such as LUNR.