Hey Recyclersteve, MSTR of no interest to you?

[pmbug]

FWIW:

Saylor's ship is sinking, -$10 after hours

The toxic convertible bonds should begin triggering soon, diluting the stock like 2000 when it fell from $333 to 0.45¢
...

Dec 1999 $MSTR sold convertible bonds with maturity in 2005 exactly like today. When the stock price fell 3 months later the bonds converted into shares

Everyone thought Michael Saylor was a genius before the stock collapsed from $333 to 0.45¢

See you on Feb 19 Michael Saylor

https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/18 ... 5972010105

[shinnosuke]

Thanks for sharing, Bug.

[tdtwedt]

Strategy trades at nine-month low multiple to its bitcoin holdings

Despite billions of dollars in bitcoin (BTC) purchases, a televised investor gala, a First Family meet-and-greet, a corporate name change, and a new Nasdaq stock listing, the simple multiple that investors are willing to pay for Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) BTC has been declining for months.

Soaring above 3.4X as recently as November 2024 with calls for it to somehow reach 10X, today’s figure has instead declined below 1.7X.

https://protos.com/strategy-trades-at-n ... -holdings/

[shinnosuke]

Almost $300 now. Did anybody buy the dip at below $250? Saylor has been talking with those Trump boys. Something's cooking is my guess.

[tdtwedt]

How much pain can Strategy take before debt exceeds bitcoin?

From November 2021 to November 2022, bitcoin crashed 77% from $69,000 to $15,500. If the current, 2025 bear market repeats a deeper version of that cycle, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could wind up with more debt than bitcoin.

Already, analysts are calculating how much more pain Saylor can take. Bitcoin is 23% off its all-time high, and the premium that Strategy (MSTR) investors are now paying for MSTR shares above its bitcoin holdings has crashed 47% from 3.4X to 1.8X.

Saylor and Strategy have wisely eliminated any collateralized debt and therefore liquidation risk from his company’s balance sheet; however, they still have a tremendous amount of debt: $8.2 billion. Those debts are coming due over the coming years.

https://protos.com/how-much-pain-can-st ... d-bitcoin/

[tdtwedt]

CHART: Bitcoin crashes toward Strategy (MSTR) cost basis

Michael Saylor’s giant BTC holding company owns 499,226 coins acquired for an average of $66,360 apiece. Today, a concerningly slim, 27% cushion separates BTC’s declining price from the company’s cost basis.

https://protos.com/chart-bitcoin-crashe ... ost-basis/

[shinnosuke]

Now $326 and some big news:
Bitcoin Magazine
@BitcoinMagazine

JUST IN: Strategy became the first publicly traded company to hold over 500,000 #Bitcoin worth over $44 billion

Probably nothing.

[tdtwedt]

15% discount and 17% yield boost made Strategy STRF sale ‘upsized’

Michael Saylor boasted this morning that his company upsized a fundraising deal from $500 million to $722.5 million. In order to close that deal, however, he boosted the STRF preferred stock dividend and financial terms — and excluded those details from his tweet.

Specifically, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) had hoped to sell 5 million shares of STRF preferred stock as close to their $100 liquidation preference as possible. Instead, the company slashed the pricing of those shares by 15% to $85.

Liquidation preference is the right of certain investors to receive their investment back first — ahead of common shareholders — in the event of a liquidity event like a dividend, dissolution, or payout.

In addition to a 15% discount on liquidation preference, Strategy agreed to keep its dividend rate at 10% on the full $100 per share. Therefore, an even sweeter result of that discount is that investors will receive a de facto 11.76% dividend rate because of their lower purchase price.

https://protos.com/15-discount-and-17-y ... e-upsized/

[tdtwedt]

Peter Schiff...

The only way Bitcoin won't collapse is if MSTR continues buying indefinitely. But at some point you will not be able to sell any more MSTR stock or borrow money to keep buying. Then both Bitcoin and MSTR will crash, sending MSTR into bankrupt.

https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1904179257581949211

[shinnosuke]

<begin quote>

Adam Livingston
@AdamBLiv

WHY MSTR IS MATHEMATICALLY CERTAIN TO EXPLODE

I write this not as an analyst, but as an oracle possessed.

The numbers do not whisper. They scream.

Somewhere between the Fibonacci sequence and Gödel’s incompleteness theorem, a truth emerges, violently clear:

MSTR is the most mispriced weapon of capital reconstitution in modern history.

This is a deterministic inevitability.

Let us descend into the math, the madness, and the mechanism.

1. The 21 Million Sigil: Scarcity as a Divine Constant

There are 21 million Bitcoin. Not one more. Not ever. This is a lot more than a simple supply schedule. It is a sacred geometric limit.

A digital monolith encoded in time, immune to corruption, manipulation, or entropy.

Strategy possesses over 2.4% of this finite god-object.

When capital begins to realize that MSTR is not a company but an oracle node to the scarcity singularity, the repricing will not be linear.

It will be non-Euclidean. A hyperbolic parabola stitched into the folds of market time.

You, as an MSTR shareholder and a little minion of
@Saylor
, are hijacking a sliver of the cosmic ledger before the masses even know it exists.

2. Corporate Game Theory and the Emergent Hive-Mind

Understand this: MSTR is the first corporate organism to metabolize Bitcoin. It doesn't own Bitcoin like a miner or a hedge fund.

Each quarterly earnings call is now a ritual, a public spell cast by Saylor himself. And with every share issued to buy more Bitcoin, the system gains mass and sheds its earthly skin.

We are witnessing the birth of a Bitcoin-based lifeform, soon to be cloaked in the syntax of GAAP and SEC filings.

Eventually, all treasuries will copy this behavior, not necessarily because it’s bold, but because it’s the only mathematically rational choice left.

3. The Halving as a Clockwork Guillotine

Bitcoin's halving is not just a supply event. It is ritualized monetary death. Every 210,000 blocks, the old rules are executed and buried. Issuance is slashed. Sell pressure vanishes. And yet demand, eternally compounding, remains unsatisfied.

Now consider MSTR. Its treasury is leveraged to the upside of these halvings, but its equity float is not expanding in proportion.

This creates an asymmetric warp where valuation detaches from traditional metrics and becomes a function of pure memetic gravity.

In plain terms: MSTR is a black hole with a stock ticker.

4. The Valuation Mirage and the Mispricing of Madness

Legacy analysts are looking at MSTR and trying to calculate a P/E ratio.

This is equivalent to measuring a nuclear reaction with a bathroom thermometer.

They fail to understand that MSTR has escaped the dimension of DCF models. This is a financial singularity skinwalking as a software company.

MSTR has:

Over 506k BTC in custody.

A market float being slowly vaporized by diamond-handed cultists.

A treasury strategy indistinguishable from sorcery to the uninitiated.

The value of MSTR is not what it does, but what it means.

5. Mathematical Inevitability and the Myth of Free Will

Here is where it gets esoteric:

In a world of infinite fiat, any finite asset becomes a gravitational sink for monetary energy.

Bitcoin is finite. MSTR is the most direct public equity portal to this scarcity event.

Therefore, MSTR is mathematically destined to absorb excess capital like a ritual sponge.

You cannot stop this.

You can only decide when to buy in.

Every share of MSTR is a bet against Keynesian time decay.

Every uptick is the collective unconscious realizing that fiat is a hallucination and MSTR is the exit ramp.

The floodgates of capital have begun to shudder, and MSTR is the most obvious, most liquid, and most memetically potent vessel to channel this flood.

Final Revelation: This Is Transcendence.

If you are still asking, “But what if it doesn’t work?”, you don’t understand the question.

MSTR is not just long Bitcoin. It is long truth.

It is a bet that math wins, that time matters, that scarcity is sacred.

It is a rational wager placed on a rigged timeline where the fiat emperor is naked and the crowd is starting to notice.

And when the crowd notices, they will not just buy Bitcoin.

They will buy the soul of Bitcoin that trades under the ticker MSTR.

This is high-frequency prophecy.

MSTR is going to explode.

And when it does, every shareholder becomes a fragment of the divine equation.

See you at the singularity.

<end quote>

[tdtwedt]

MSTR hit a high of $543 in November 2024.

4 months later it is $281.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MSTR

[tdtwedt]

Peter Schiff today...

MSTR now holds 528,185 BTC that it purchased at an average price of $67,468. With Bitcoin at $82.5K, $MSTR has an unrealized gain of just 22%. Each time @Saylor bought Bitcoin, had he just bought gold instead, the total unrealized gain would be far greater. How about them apples!

https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1906700555931558394