Re: Time to air this out. Why Trump should NOT be President
Posted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 8:09 pm
I do think polling procedures need to be updated, but there's no way Trump is winning 64 to 36. Where are the third party options? Some of those respondents aren't voting for either. How many Zip users will actually vote? I'd bet a big chunk of them are under 18, another chunk are 18+ but not registered to vote, and statistically 15% - 30% of those who are registered to vote won't vote anyway. What about all of the elderly people who DO vote but don't have smartphones or the internet? There's a reason the old school pollsters have formulas for finding "likely voters" and don't just throw an anonymous poll up on their website or app, or call random numbers out of the phone book. If you went by Zip type polls in 2008 or 2012, Ron Paul would have been the nominee and beaten Obama. Clearly that didn't translate into actual votes. I do think the race might be closer than what the mainstream polls are reporting, but they aren't off by 20 points . Nice marketing piece by the Zip guy though.
I would also say that what you see on social media may be skewed based on who you are friends with and what you click on. I know it is for me. Facebook and YouTube and news sites feed you content related to what you read (on their site and other sites). In my case on Facebook I see a handful (fewer than half a dozen people) posting pro-Trump stuff, but dozens and dozens of friends from my college years posting anti-Trump content, and a lot of people complaining that Hillary sucks but they will vote for her because Trump is so much worse. Also a lot of talk about Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. All from people who actually vote.
This has been Hillary's election to lose for eight years. She doesn't need big rallies or voter enthusiasm. Short of being indicted (extremely unlikely) or physically incapacitated, all she has to do to win is not be Donald Trump. I don't like Cruz or Kasich either, but the GOP would have had a much better chance with either of them. I know a lot of conservatives who are not voting for Trump but would have voted for either Cruz or Kasich. The polls in late spring had Kasich up 5-10+ points over Clinton at the same time Trump was down 4-8. We could have a different conversation about rhetoric, but in terms of electability, Trump was the worst choice out of the final three. And now that the novelty is wearing off, it's starting to show.
I would also say that what you see on social media may be skewed based on who you are friends with and what you click on. I know it is for me. Facebook and YouTube and news sites feed you content related to what you read (on their site and other sites). In my case on Facebook I see a handful (fewer than half a dozen people) posting pro-Trump stuff, but dozens and dozens of friends from my college years posting anti-Trump content, and a lot of people complaining that Hillary sucks but they will vote for her because Trump is so much worse. Also a lot of talk about Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. All from people who actually vote.
This has been Hillary's election to lose for eight years. She doesn't need big rallies or voter enthusiasm. Short of being indicted (extremely unlikely) or physically incapacitated, all she has to do to win is not be Donald Trump. I don't like Cruz or Kasich either, but the GOP would have had a much better chance with either of them. I know a lot of conservatives who are not voting for Trump but would have voted for either Cruz or Kasich. The polls in late spring had Kasich up 5-10+ points over Clinton at the same time Trump was down 4-8. We could have a different conversation about rhetoric, but in terms of electability, Trump was the worst choice out of the final three. And now that the novelty is wearing off, it's starting to show.