Realcent.org

barrytrot wrote:

Treetop wrote:I wouldnt bet you 5 bucks on whether or not you will make money on the deal. I would however make a bet as to whether or not facebook retains its current position out to 10 years.

I'll take that bet if you are serious.

You have a bet!! Lets make it 10 bucks, a dollar a year! (yes im serious-still funny though)


I have another running bet with a member of another forum. I bet him that we will be able to buy groceries or other similar things with gold and or silver before we will ever see a cashless society. I still think Im right on that, even as a cashless society looms. he refused to pay me based on utah I think it was legalizing gold and silver as alternative currencies.

Ok, just to clarify the bet:

If Facebook is not the #1 social network you win.

If they are the #1 social network I win.

Date to check: 2022-05-22

I will also cede the point and the bet if they EVER become #2.

Semi-dangerous as Youtube is, for some reason, counted. I would prefer not to count Youtube as that's not the same type of "endevour", but $10 won't kill me


NOTE: For purposes of my "liking" of Facebook stock it doesn't actually matter if they drop to #2 or #10 as the key factor is their reach. #2 if you include China is actually twice the size as it is currently.

Its a bet! Its really a tough call on youtube though. My whole thinking relies on someone doing it DIFFERENT, and capturing market share from facebook over the elapsed time. Considering youtubes reach, they might be just the player to evolve into something that challenges facebook. So id hate to exclude them or anyone, although I can see why in their current form youd want to exclude them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... g_websites

It seems wikipedia doesnt include youtube, but does include dating websites. So I guess wed have to go with what the definition of social networking is 10 years from now, because my whole premise is that it will change.

i just noticed from wikipedia, facebook is at 901 million users, Qzone out of china is at 480 million. Several others well into the hundreds of millions. some of these service countries where internet access is much sparser then our own country. Seems like a sure fire bet to me.

Interesting. In any case, my guess is Facebook will win.

And, as I keep saying, STOCK VALUE WISE, it doesn't matter if they win as the key is the other sites they interface with.

My fantasy investment.

Yup, the greeks like to gamble.

I have been prodding some european stocks for a while now. I think there is some potential, with banks restructuring and trimming fat. The market momentum is ridiculously low, and the prices are even lower. So europe would fall under my high risk/high (potential) return.


I have not had the courage to jump in yet, but plan to at some point in the future.


Greece is another story for me though, you are a brave soul. I wish you the best of luck!

It's been a while, but this is how my fantasy investment looks today.

Fantasy investment? You didn't actually pull the trigger with real money?

What's your next tip?

SilverEye wrote:Fantasy investment? You didn't actually pull the trigger with real money?

What's your next tip?

LOL... I really dont have the kind of money to play the market game.
The "game" gave me 10,000 to start and I had a few other stocks in that portfolio. When that one started to take off I pulled close to the original cash back and just let it ride for over 6 mos now.
That is the result so far.


I am sure DTEJD1997 is more than happy with their "real" purchase.

The "Facebook is different" arguement sounds a lot like the "new paradigm" stuff we kept hearing in 1999/2000. In 2001 the "old paradigm" of valuation based on earnings stormed right back after the crash. Facebook's earnings suck.

TwoPenniesEarned wrote:The "Facebook is different" arguement sounds a lot like the "new paradigm" stuff we kept hearing in 1999/2000. In 2001 the "old paradigm" of valuation based on earnings stormed right back after the crash. Facebook's earnings suck.

When I made that statement I was meaning it was different than other Social Networks.

I definitely didn't mean that I would invest in something that didn't have earning potential. That, as you point out, is preposterous.

Earnings is all that matters in stocks. And Facebook's long term earning potential is still really really good!

NOTE: I never pulled the trigger on the investment. But I still think Facebook is a buy at or below 18.10.

Hey all:

To answer all of you folks, yes I am happy with my "real" GOFPY investment....I have substantial "real money" invested.

There was a report that a VERY well respected value fund manager was "making moves" into GOFPY...I think it is STILL tremendously undervalued even after it's recent moves.

I've also been making some moves out of the small community banks and into nano-cap stocks, for the most part. If you are patient, can dig around, you can get some INCREDIBLE bargains...

I'm also making moves into the Chinese casino & gambling stocks! Haha, I love obscure investments!

I must admit, I am getting a bit nervous, as my portfolio has rocketed higher this past year and six months...I've been selling more than I've been buying.

One very funny thing that I just noticed and figured out....ALL OF MY CHINESE STOCKS PAY SUBSTANTIAL DIVIDENDS! They also generally have lower levels of debt than their American counterparts...If you know where & how to look, the Chinese are actually MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE than management in the USA.

Hey all:

A quick note on Facebook (FB). Why in the world would you EVER want to goof around with something so spectacularly speculative? I think the level of risk investing in FB is just crazy. I could NEVER invest in something that is so risky & speculative!

For instance, the P/E is 1,800. This is on a $66BB market cap company, running in "normalized earnings". Their EV/EBIDTA ratio is like 50! Me thinks you get rich selling FB, not buying it! haha

They may have a fine company, but how is that going to make you money as an investor? How does their position as the preeminent "social media" company translate into money going into your pocket? I suppose you might be able to generate income selling covered calls....Perhaps you might also get income from loaning it out to short sellers...but that is somewhat tricky...

OK, give me Greek stocks and pink sheet Chinese casino's and I'm set!

Because it isn't speculative in my opinion. Social networks are here to stay. Facebook is their king.

Therefore Facebook has long term value.

The P/E of Amazon is similar to Facebook and it has risen meteorically for years.

I have bought neither as it turns out But I'm a fan of both in many ways (stock wise I mean).

Hey all:

Sorry I'm so slow in updating this...

I'm sure you guys all saw the announcement by "Greek Organization of Football Prognosticators" aka OPAP (GOFPY) on Friday.

Earnings were relatively good. GOFPY earned about $1.04/share for the trailing twelve months (TTM).

That would give this stock a P/E of well less than 3 at the time I made the posting about it.

Ah yes, they also declared a dividend, to be paid in June. It will be about $.37/USD per share, so that would give it a dividend yield of about 15%.

That is the type of stock investment that interests me. This is the type of situation that I will put my hard earned money in. Amazon, Facebook, "social media" & related companies is all just "fast money" speculation in my opinion, not an investment.

Please keep in mind, these are the results of the company with unemployment EASILY 20% and in the greatest economic crisis since WWII. What can OPAP do if Greece ever backs to merely "bad" times instead of "catastrophic" times?

I am somewhat surprised and dismayed that OPAP is trading as low as it is...

Oh well....we'll see what happens in the future!

At one time in my varied careers I was the general manager of a small cinema chain in CT. The one thing I learned in that business was that when times get rough, people will always find the time and money to get some entertainment to help them forget their problems if only for a short time. This was true during the depression as well as today. The only thing that has changed is the methods of delivering that entertainment. Entertainment, and gambling is a form of entertainment, is always a good investment.

It seems that I'm not the only one investing in "Greek Organization of Football Prognostics"...

It turns out that Seth Klarman of Baupost group was investing in this a few months ago too:

Here is the link for anyone interested:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/ ... N620130129

WOW:

GOFPY is up a lot today, almost $.50/share. Evidently the Greek market is also up tremendously.

Anyone get any of this when it was low?

This thing just keeps rolling along, regardless of the Greek's problems.

Hey all:

The "Greek Organization of Football Prognostics" keeps jumping around in price, that is for sure

One thing that is NOT in doubt is that they recently paid a nice, juicy dividend of $.34/share after conversion & tax fees.

That is now TWO dividends that I've received. The first one was much higher at $.41/share. So I've received $.75/share in dividends and also got some foreign tax credits.

Wonder what the future will bring?

After reading on this...isn't this a bit like investing in the Zimbabwean stock market? I believe it was the fastest gaining market ever in nominal terms.



Seems to me that real terms would be more beneficial than increasing nominal gains if when time comes to cash in and enjoy your profits all you can purchase is an egg.

coincrazy:

No, the stock GOFPY is denominated in USD. They pay dividends in Euros which are converted to USD.

As bad as things are in Greece, I don't think they are anywhere near approaching what happened in Zimbabwe. I also don't think any Western European country would ever get to that level. Of course, who knows what the future will bring?

I've got two positions in the stock with an average cost basis of about $3.90/share.

I've collected about $.75/share in cash dividends. I've also paid some foreign tax credits (resulting in USA tax credit).

That equates to about a 33% capital gain and 19% in dividends. About an average return for the time frame, hopefully the future will be better!