Treetop wrote:we are also in an unprecedented age of hackers revealing things AND whistle blowers.
johnbrickner wrote:Treetop wrote:we are also in an unprecedented age of hackers revealing things AND whistle blowers.
God bless those who work both anonymously by passive aggressively hacking and those who stand on principle, are recognized by the act of speaking out, and place themselves at risk to make change. These are the contemporary heroes and patriots of our days. They need to be acknowledged with their behavior promoted and honored by every man jack of us.
aloneibreak wrote:johnbrickner wrote:Treetop wrote:we are also in an unprecedented age of hackers revealing things AND whistle blowers.
God bless those who work both anonymously by passive aggressively hacking and those who stand on principle, are recognized by the act of speaking out, and place themselves at risk to make change. These are the contemporary heroes and patriots of our days. They need to be acknowledged with their behavior promoted and honored by every man jack of us.
hopefully a release of emails/information on both candidates is what's at the end of the badselfeater countdown
2016 has seen the rise of populism in American politics. Populism is the political tactic of embracing majority beliefs in order to gain popular support. Both current presidential nominees have taken populist views, and Bernie Sanders’ candidacy was perhaps the most populist left-wing candidacy in American history.
But populism fails, and sometimes dangerously so, when it embraces popular yet flawed beliefs for political gain. The Russian Revolution was arguably the most damaging populist movement in history. It ended up costing the lives of millions and plunging half the world into a century of poverty.
Almost as damaging was the African continent's embrace of protectionism from the 1970s onward and America's ill-advised protectionism early in the Great Depression. The United States suffered so much under its own tariffs that ever since, protectionism has been essentially left for dead... an economic test that failed real world parameters.
Yet here we are, on the verge of a return to the same policies, due largely to the passage of time, the public's short memory, and a retreat away from economic education.
This is one of those subjects that we at Unbiased America know will piss off a lot of people when we write about it. That's because many in both major parties (as well as libertarians) have come to believe the populist political narrative that free trade is damaging our economy. Yet economists, on the left AND the right, have shown unequivocally that free trade has brought more people out of poverty, both here and abroad, than any force in history.
We'd be remiss, as economists, if we didn't attempt to sway opinion away from the populist views taking hold. So over the next few days, we, along admins from Being Classically Liberal and We Are Capitalists, will be offering several posts on this issue. All we ask of you is an open mind, critical thought, and good discussion. Thank you once again for being the most intelligent followers on Facebook!
There is nearly universal agreement among those who study the issue that tariffs are harmful. Economists from Milton Friedman to Paul Krugman and everyone in between have warned against the siren song of protectionism.
The reason tariffs hurt the economy so much is because they effectively subsidize corporations at the expense of consumers, who must now pay substantially more for products being tariffed. They hurt the people, ESPECIALLY the poor, by acting like a regressive tax: people pay more for goods, in order to give more to corporations. And while wealthy individuals might be able to afford this, the poor and working class are hit hardest when the cost of goods rises. And all this just to prop up an uncompetitive company. Good businesses don't need to be protected. It's the ones that are failing that typically call for tariffs. This is why protectionism is a notion that exists chiefly among special interests and lobbyists for failing corporations.
One of the last times a major tariff law was passed in the U.S., it destroyed our economy. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed despite overwhelming opposition from economists. President Hoover signed it into law in 1930 because people believed it would promote domestic industry. Turns out, all it promoted was a trade war with the rest of the world. Exports fell by 66%. GDP fell by 50%. And unemployment rose from 8% to 25%. America plunged further into the Great Depression.
The harm of protectionism has been so decisively proven that currently "93% of economists agree that tariffs and quotas reduce economic welfare".
From http://www.realclearmarkets.com/charts/ ... ve-44.html
Also: "Economists overwhelmingly favor free trade— apparently, the freer the better. The overwhelming majority (87.5%) agree that the U.S. should eliminate remaining tariffs and other barriers to trade." From http://ew-econ.typepad.fr/articleAEAsurvey.pdf
Sadly, protectionism sounds appealing to large numbers of voters, and will likely always be used by politicians to gain their support. We'll delve further into the nuts and bolts of this issue in our next post.
In fact, the expansion of capitalism and freer international trade has coincided with an era of slow economic growth, high unemployment, increased child labor, skyrocketing inequality, and grinding poverty.
Just kidding, that’s not what happened at all. In fact, as the world has become more capitalist and more globalized, the quality of life for the average person, and especially for the average poor person, has increased substantially. In 1990, 37% of the global population lived on less than $1.90 per day. By 2012, that number had been reduced to 12.8%, and in 2015 it was under 10%. The source of this progress isn’t a massive wealth redistribution program; it’s massive wealth creation — that is, economic growth.
Economists David Dollar and Aart Kraay found that, in a global sample of over 100 countries, changes in the income growth of the bottom 40% of the world’s income earners are highly correlated with economic growth rates. On the other hand, changes in inequality contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare of the poor over the last few decades.
There is good reason to believe that the expansion of free trade, facilitated by international organizations like the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), have had a considerable impact in accelerating the economic development of developing countries.
In the 1990s GATT facilitated reforms which moved 125 countries towards freer trade by reducing the burden of government imposed trade barriers like tariffs. This was the first serious attempt at trade reform for most developing countries at the time, and arguably presents a unique natural experiment on the economic effects of trade reform.
In fact, a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), specifically examined how trade reforms facilitated by GATT affected the economic development of the reforming countries. In the paper, the authors compared the trends in economic growth before and after trade reform in the reforming countries. Then they compared those results to trends in economic growth of a control group of countries which didn’t undergo trade reform.
What they found was very encouraging for proponents of free trade. Prior to reform, the economic development of reformers and non-reformers was practically identical, but after reform, the economic development of reforming countries accelerated while non-reforming countries saw their economies stagnate and decline. The results suggest that the reforms towards freer trade lead to an increase in income per capita of around 20% in the long-run, an effect so large that it almost certainly had a positive and non-trivial impact on poverty reduction.
Similarly, other research has shown that more free market trade policies result in lower rates of extreme poverty and child mortality in developing countries. There are other benefits as well. One study on trade reform in Indonesia found that reductions of import tariffs led to an increase in disposable income among poor households, which allowed them to pull their children out of the labor force, leading to “a strong decline” in the incidence of child labor.
Unfortunately, many activists have reflexively taken up the cause of opposing the expansion of global capitalism, for a number of reasons. Western anti-sweatshop activists, for example, will often argue in favor of government imposed barriers to trade with poor countries because their working conditions are terrible in comparison to those in developed Western nations. In their view, western consumers should not be promoting a cycle of capitalist exploitation by buying products made in Vietnamese sweat-shops.
But satisfactory working conditions aren’t the natural state of mankind; they are a consequence of decades of economic development. Erecting barriers to trade with poor countries is surely a large impediment to their development, in fact, research suggests that existing developed world tariffs depress economic growth rates in the developing world by 0.6 to 1.6 percent per person, a considerably large effect.
Moreover, the sweat-shops which produce clothing for Westerners are often much better than alternative forms of domestic employment. In poor countries like Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam, the apparel industry consistently pays more than most other domestic industries. According to research by economist Ben Powell, in poor countries “most sweatshop jobs provide an above average standard of living for their workers.”
More at the link below.
http://quillette.com/2016/01/16/how-cap ... ter-place/
coppernickel wrote:I will not vote against anyone. I agree with Castle and his party, but I am thinking a vote for Johnson will do more good.
johnbrickner wrote:Treetop wrote:we are also in an unprecedented age of hackers revealing things AND whistle blowers.
God bless those who work both anonymously by passive aggressively hacking and those who stand on principle, are recognized by the act of speaking out, and place themselves at risk to make change. These are the contemporary heroes and patriots of our days. They need to be acknowledged with their behavior promoted and honored by every man jack of us.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed despite overwhelming opposition from economists. President Hoover signed it into law in 1930 because people believed it would promote domestic industry. Turns out, all it promoted was a trade war with the rest of the world. Exports fell by 66%. GDP fell by 50%. And unemployment rose from 8% to 25%. America plunged further into the Great Depression.
I get that Johnson isn't libertarian enough for some libertarians, but when they argue that Trump is a better choice for libertarians than Johnson, they lose all credibility.
Just kidding, that’s not what happened at all. In fact, as the world has become more capitalist and more globalized, the quality of life for the average person, and especially for the average poor person, has increased substantially. In 1990, 37% of the global population lived on less than $1.90 per day. By 2012, that number had been reduced to 12.8%, and in 2015 it was under 10%. The source of this progress isn’t a massive wealth redistribution program; it’s massive wealth creation — that is, economic growth.
In fact, a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), specifically examined how trade reforms facilitated by GATT affected the economic development of the reforming countries. In the paper, the authors compared the trends in economic growth before and after trade reform in the reforming countries. Then they compared those results to trends in economic growth of a control group of countries which didn’t undergo trade reform.
What they found was very encouraging for proponents of free trade. Prior to reform, the economic development of reformers and non-reformers was practically identical, but after reform, the economic development of reforming countries accelerated while non-reforming countries saw their economies stagnate and decline. The results suggest that the reforms towards freer trade lead to an increase in income per capita of around 20% in the long-run, an effect so large that it almost certainly had a positive and non-trivial impact on poverty reduction.
natsb88 wrote:
For someone who bills himself as an "outsider," he sure is worried about protecting the (illegal) secrets of the Washington machine. Anybody who is a real threat to the establishment (like Ron Paul was) gets totally blacked out and ignored by the media. Trump has been the polar opposite of that, with 24/7 coverage for over a year now. They may love to hate him, but mostly they just love that people tune in to see the latest controversy. Trump has been a savior to the media, giving them plenty of things to talk about instead of Hillary's problems. And he thrives on the attention, no matter that it's largely negative. His career for the better part of the last decade has been getting his face on TV, no matter the context.
and Trump being a wildcard worth taking a chance on. Well, I don't think Trump is really that mysterious, I think it's pretty clear who he is, and I'd much rather gamble on Gary Johnson than Donald Trump, if that is the strategy we're resorting to in this election.
Along with his comments about the dollar, Mr. Trump has expressed appreciation for the gold standard, and mused about reinstating a gold-backed currency. “Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but boy would it be wonderful. We’d have a standard on which to base our money,” the Republican nominee told The Scene, a property of Conde Nast Entertainment.
Treetop wrote:http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/30/in-donald-trump-gold-bugs-see-one-of-their-own/Along with his comments about the dollar, Mr. Trump has expressed appreciation for the gold standard, and mused about reinstating a gold-backed currency. “Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but boy would it be wonderful. We’d have a standard on which to base our money,” the Republican nominee told The Scene, a property of Conde Nast Entertainment.
Treetop wrote:Kind of a strange response there John, imo. <snip>
Return to Economic & Business News, Reports, and Predictions
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests