Hey Recyclersteve, MSTR of no interest to you?

[shinnosuke]

Peter
@BTCBullRider
So let me get this straight.

You have:

A) the most profitable company

B) The best performing stock in the entire marketplace for 4 years running

C) An indefensibly large holding of Bitcoin (the most pristine sound money in existence)

D) Can issue billions of dollars of debt at 0% interest to buy even more Bitcoin

E) Has literally the entire $350 Trillion dollar Total Address Market (TAM) bond market as your customers

F) FASB accounting changes

G) QQQ and S&P 500 index inclusion

And STILL you say 3X NAV is a Ponzi?

Good luck then.
12:07 PM · Nov 22, 2024

[Recyclersteve]

Time for another update on my short sales of MSTR.

Trade 1 (outlined above)- net profit of $1,015.43 (10.7%) in 2 days
Trade 2: This was when I went back in Thursday in after hours and shorted MSTR again after it popped some. Friday I covered the short and lost money. Lost a total of $419.54 on this second trade. So my total net profit for the two trades combined was $595.89, less than what I expected, but I gained some valuable trading experience on something I'd never traded before.

Frankly, I thought MSTR would come down sharply in the first 30-90 minutes or so Friday. When it stayed strong I figured I didn't want to hold a short position in this over the weekend and decided to take a modest loss and move on.

There are far too many other things I trade and do better at. I will have to be more selective on this and/or use even smaller position size. I still think this will have a sizable pullback, but trying to time it was more difficult than I thought it would be.

[shinnosuke]

Thanks, Steve. Keep us in the loop if you dabble some more.

Meanwhile on X...
Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive
I have NEVER seen Michael Saylor so emphatically, combatively bullish like this in a media interview.

It's like he wants to say "mfer my company is up $100b in 90 days, and we just raised $10b to buy more #Bitcoin this month. You still asking me about volatility?"

Here's the breakdown:

• MSTR may be the most profitable company in the USA and growing the fastest at the moment
• We've made $5.4 BILLION in $BTC gains in 2 weeks
• Thats $500m a day
• Not many companies make $500m a day
• People don't understand our business
• We are a Bitcoin Treasury business
• We expect Bitcoin to go up 29% a year for 21 years
• Market is buying Bitcoin 20x faster than daily issuance
• We either make $3b on this week's convertible bond, or $30b if Bitcoin does what we expect
• I got a $500m order to buy convertible notes in a 20 minute meeting
• Every Bitcoin you don't buy will cost you $13m in the future (expected price)

See the video here: https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1859968143000482239

[shinnosuke]

Steve, thin ice warning! Saylor is accumulating BTC, lots of it. 400,000BTC times $100,000 = $40B. $40B of the world's scarcest commodity.

Markets says yes.png (384.83 KiB) Viewed 4042 times

[shinnosuke]

Why? Because MSTR just purchased another 55,500 BTC.

Bitcoin Magazine
@BitcoinMagazine

JUST IN: $725 billion Bernstein says MicroStrategy's Bitcoin treasury model is unparalleled, raised its price target to $600. ($420 right now)

[tdtwedt]

Peter Schiff on Saylor...

Michael Saylor is the Egg Man. His latest announcement is that $MSTR will spend another $42 billion to buy #Bitcoin, funded by issuing $21 billion in debt and $21 billion in equity over the next three years. This reminds me of a joke I heard a long time ago.

A client calls his broker inquiring about egg futures and is quoted a price of 25 cents per contract. Having a hunch about the egg market, he buys 100 contracts. A week later, he calls his broker to get a quote. Pleased to learn that the price per contract has risen to 35 cents, he decides to buy another 1,000 contracts. A few days later, eager to check on the progress of his investment, he is amazed to learn that the price has now risen to 50 cents per contract, twice the price he paid for his original 100 contracts. Sensing a trend, he steps it up, this time buying 100,000 contracts. The next day, ecstatic to learn that the price per contract has now risen to 65 cents, he gets even more aggressive, buying 1,000,000 contracts. Sure enough, the following day, the price per contract rises to 95 cents, prompting him to order an additional million contracts. The day after that, as rising prices further validate his intuition, he buys yet another million contracts, this time paying $1.25.

The next day, with egg contracts trading at $1.75, he senses that the market has risen too far too fast, and places an order to sell 2,000,000 contracts. After a pregnant pause, his broker replies, "Sell to whom, you're the egg man!"

https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1852004824973185363

[shinnosuke]

Almost doubled their weighting since Oct. 24th.

Convert Bond ETF.png (219.06 KiB) Viewed 3983 times

[68Camaro]

Egg man, funny story! Thanks for sharing that from Schiff. Sell to whom? You're the egg man. Too funny.

[Lemon Thrower]

Friday we may hear that MSTR will be included in the QQQ which will drive demand for the stock from holders of the QQQ.

[shinnosuke]

Friday we may hear that MSTR will be included in the QQQ which will drive demand for the stock from holders of the QQQ.

MSTR is down to $350/share. A strong rebound incoming?

Steve, did you close your shorts?

[Recyclersteve]

I don’t have any position in MSTR at the current time.

[shinnosuke]

I don’t have any position in MSTR at the current time.

Roger that. Thanks for taking a look at the stock.

[tdtwedt]

Is Michael Saylor the Do Kwon of this bitcoin cycle?

Michael Saylor’s rise to prominence among bitcoin (BTC) investors is drawing considerable criticism. One particularly disparaging analogy claims that his BTC-buying tactics at MicroStrategy are similar to Do Kwon’s own from 2022.

To understand this apparent parallel, it’s worth revisiting Kwon’s story and the months before his criminal prosecution...

https://protos.com/is-michael-saylor-th ... oin-cycle/

[shinnosuke]

Bitcoin Magazine
@BitcoinMagazine
·
Nov 28
JUST IN: $793 billion Bernstein predicts MicroStrategy will own 4% of the total #bitcoin supply in 2033.

They expect to be worth $830 BILLION

[tdtwedt]

What happens if MicroStrategy can’t sell enough bitcoin to repay lenders?

As of press time, MicroStrategy has outstanding commitments to repay lenders tens of billions of dollars at various maturities ranging from next year through 2032.

https://protos.com/what-happens-if-micr ... y-lenders/

[shinnosuke]

MicroStrategy leads a growing number of smart companies.

IMG_2681.jpeg (789.2 KiB) Viewed 3435 times

[shinnosuke]

Michael Saylor @saylor
MicroStrategy has acquired 15,400 BTC for $1.5 billion at ~$95,976 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 38.7% QTD and 63.3% YTD. As of 12/2/2024, we hodl 402,100 $BTC acquired for $23.4 billion at $58,263 per bitcoin. $MSTR

[tdtwedt]

Michael Saylor @saylor
MicroStrategy has acquired 15,400 BTC for $1.5 billion at ~$95,976 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 38.7% QTD and 63.3% YTD. As of 12/2/2024, we hodl 402,100 $BTC acquired for $23.4 billion at $58,263 per bitcoin. $MSTR

Cost basis of MSTR Bitcoins going up every time Saylor borrows money or issues more stock to buy more Bitcoin.

Now $58K per Bitcoin.

What will happen to MSTR in the next Bitcoin crash?

[tdtwedt]

Peter Schiff responding to Saylor...

But you also massively diluted shareholders with additional equity and loaded up the balance sheet with billions in new debt. The next Bitcoin bear market will leave the company and shareholders in a very precarious position. Don't forget to mention that.

https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1864344434533347810

[Recyclersteve]

Does anyone know if Saylor has sold enough of his personal bitcoin holdings to ensure he has enough to live comfortably the rest of his life. In other words, what would his net worth be WITHOUT BITCOIN?

[shinnosuke]

Does anyone know if Saylor has sold enough of his personal bitcoin holdings to ensure he has enough to live comfortably the rest of his life. In other words, what would his net worth be WITHOUT BITCOIN?

I don’t know the answers to your questions but Saylor is famous for saying “You do not sell your Bitcoin.” and, speaking of Bitcoin, “There is no 2nd best.”

He probably owns other assets too, a home, etc. But just guessing, Bitcoin is the majority.

[tdtwedt]

MicroStrategy gives up big gain, turns negative despite bitcoin $100,000 milestone

Cryptocurrency-related stocks gave up big gains Thursday even after the price of bitcoin
soared above $100,000 for the first time overnight.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/05/microst ... -time.html

[Lemon Thrower]

He owns 10% of MSTR and 50% of its voting rights.

[tdtwedt]

He owns 10% of MSTR and 50% of its voting rights.

Michael Saylor has lost voting control of MicroStrategy

However, because MicroStrategy has issued so many shares and debt to buy bitcoin, including today’s upsized round, Saylor’s voting control is now less than 50%.

https://protos.com/michael-saylor-has-l ... ostrategy/

[silverflake]

So I truly appreciate the pros and cons on this thread. And as mentioned somewhere, I own a small amount of bitcoin, enough that I would be sorry if it failed, but far from ruined (don't invest an amount you are not willing to lose). My knowledge is ever so slowly increasing on bitcoin. But I will still take gold over bitcoin right now.

However, there's no reason that one cannot speculate in bitcoin even if you don't believe in it or own it (I have traded stocks that I had no conviction in before and made some money, lost some money). That said, bitcoin price over time moves in cycles (crypto seasons) . It moves sideways for a year or two until the halving then it bursts upwards for 12 months or so (summer) then pulls back massively (sometimes 80+ percent or crypto winter) . If you know this, you can make some money (and use it to buy gold?). I did it last time from 2020 to 2021 using the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and made a pleasant profit. I did it again this cycle using GBTC which is now an ETF which makes it easier to trade with stop orders etc. (I'm no recyclersteve mind you). And this morning unloaded half my position for a 130% gain. Still have half a position. I personally don't see many gains like that in under 2 years holding in my experiences . I am quite happy with that and ended up putting a portion of the proceeds into Eric Sprotts gold fund PHYS and his silver fund PSLV. Bitcoin may not be for everyone but there are ways to exploit it.

Keep the posts coming, it's been nice and for the most part everyone here is keeping a level head and being cordial. Keep it up, friends.