What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For?
Posted: Thu Oct 21, 2010 7:12 pmThe following is an article from James Rawls' survivalglog.com (http://www.survivalblog.com/2008/09/let ... onomi.html), which was published a little over two years ago. As I went down the list I was struck by the fact that more a few of them have happened or are in the process of happening. I put these in bold and added comments. Have I missed any?
Letter Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For?
By James Wesley, Rawles on September 25, 2008 8:44 PM
Jim,
Some of us may be stuck within the city limits until 'the last possible moment' before an event such as WTSHTF. Can you suggest a day-to-day procedure or strategy to now follow for monitoring specific and reliable news outlets or information sources in determining when our G.O.O.D. action plan should be initiated? . Obviously, many people such as myself, have all the 'other' recommended Rawles preparations in place but are still at a disadvantage from those that were able to set up their retreat ahead of time and to have evacuated from a city. It's the best that I can do, at this point.
Additionally, the economic news events these days are so wild and crazy that it's hard to discern what main event, 'red flag' or 'markers' should precipitate an exit out of the city without further doubt or hesitation. Brushing up on 'common sense and logic' doesn't hurt here, but it's the expectation that some specific chain-of-events will take place that categorically shout now that I'm speaking of. Can you give us your personal view on what these catalyst events could be? Thank you, - Ken R. (A 10 Cent Challenge subscriber)
JWR Replies: There are far too many variables in the current situation for me to be able point to just one key "trigger" or "gating" indicator.
Be ready, but don't panic. I must caution SurvivalBlog readers: "Don't give up your day job." Unless you are retired, or have a stable and substantial secondary cash flow from investments or a home-based business, it would be highly imprudent to quit your job (or start burning vacation hours) and move to your retreat. My advice: Watch the news carefully and be ready to leave on short notice. As I've previously mentioned, it is very important to pre-position the vast majority of your key logistics at your retreat, under the watchful eye of a caretaker or a trusted neighbor. When the time comes, you may only have the opportunity to make one trip to your retreat before highways become impassable.
Here are some important indicators to watch for, in my humble estimation. (Witnessing just one of these won't be surely indicative, but if we see several of these...) :
A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate
News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked - No auctions have failed because the Fed is buying any unwanted treasuries.
Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers China, Russia, The UN and the IMF have all voiced concerns about the future viability of the U.S. Dollar.
Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday
Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up on the streets)
stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day
A A large and sudden spike in inflation
Any suspension of US stock trading
Draconian new stock trading limits (for example any new "circuit breaker" rules, followed by news that the trading was halted because of the limits)
New restrictions on precious metals purchasing or new reporting requirements - A tax form now must be filed with any cash transaction of more $600.
New limits on moving funds outside the US
Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties or illiquidity.)
News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions
News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV)
The US Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of trading.
Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC. (Up or down.)
Rioting in several metropolitan centers simultaneously.
Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce - It got to with in 150 points last week. 1500 gold doesn't seem nearly as outlandish as it might have in 2008.
News that any major western power is no longer accepting US Dollars in payment for key commodities- Not quite yet; however I have read a few articles describing trade agreements that do not involve the U.S. dollar, China and Brazil being a good example.
News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority of their US Treasury paper
A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer.
The Treasury starts to extensively monetize debt. QE2?
The resignation of either the Treasury Secretary or the Federal Reserve Chairman. There have been calls for Geithner's resignation.
Mel Gibson moves to Fiji
Letter Re: What Are the Economic Collapse Indicators to Watch For?
By James Wesley, Rawles on September 25, 2008 8:44 PM
Jim,
Some of us may be stuck within the city limits until 'the last possible moment' before an event such as WTSHTF. Can you suggest a day-to-day procedure or strategy to now follow for monitoring specific and reliable news outlets or information sources in determining when our G.O.O.D. action plan should be initiated? . Obviously, many people such as myself, have all the 'other' recommended Rawles preparations in place but are still at a disadvantage from those that were able to set up their retreat ahead of time and to have evacuated from a city. It's the best that I can do, at this point.
Additionally, the economic news events these days are so wild and crazy that it's hard to discern what main event, 'red flag' or 'markers' should precipitate an exit out of the city without further doubt or hesitation. Brushing up on 'common sense and logic' doesn't hurt here, but it's the expectation that some specific chain-of-events will take place that categorically shout now that I'm speaking of. Can you give us your personal view on what these catalyst events could be? Thank you, - Ken R. (A 10 Cent Challenge subscriber)
JWR Replies: There are far too many variables in the current situation for me to be able point to just one key "trigger" or "gating" indicator.
Be ready, but don't panic. I must caution SurvivalBlog readers: "Don't give up your day job." Unless you are retired, or have a stable and substantial secondary cash flow from investments or a home-based business, it would be highly imprudent to quit your job (or start burning vacation hours) and move to your retreat. My advice: Watch the news carefully and be ready to leave on short notice. As I've previously mentioned, it is very important to pre-position the vast majority of your key logistics at your retreat, under the watchful eye of a caretaker or a trusted neighbor. When the time comes, you may only have the opportunity to make one trip to your retreat before highways become impassable.
Here are some important indicators to watch for, in my humble estimation. (Witnessing just one of these won't be surely indicative, but if we see several of these...) :
A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate
News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked - No auctions have failed because the Fed is buying any unwanted treasuries.
Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers China, Russia, The UN and the IMF have all voiced concerns about the future viability of the U.S. Dollar.
Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday
Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up on the streets)
stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day
A A large and sudden spike in inflation
Any suspension of US stock trading
Draconian new stock trading limits (for example any new "circuit breaker" rules, followed by news that the trading was halted because of the limits)
New restrictions on precious metals purchasing or new reporting requirements - A tax form now must be filed with any cash transaction of more $600.
New limits on moving funds outside the US
Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties or illiquidity.)
News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions
News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV)
The US Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of trading.
Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC. (Up or down.)
Rioting in several metropolitan centers simultaneously.
Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce - It got to with in 150 points last week. 1500 gold doesn't seem nearly as outlandish as it might have in 2008.
News that any major western power is no longer accepting US Dollars in payment for key commodities- Not quite yet; however I have read a few articles describing trade agreements that do not involve the U.S. dollar, China and Brazil being a good example.
News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority of their US Treasury paper
A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer.
The Treasury starts to extensively monetize debt. QE2?
The resignation of either the Treasury Secretary or the Federal Reserve Chairman. There have been calls for Geithner's resignation.
Mel Gibson moves to Fiji