Realcent.org

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moria ... 22213.html

Given that we've hit a high in stocks, and we've had the latest PM "crash", I'm thinking the larger overall trouble lies just ahead.

Hang on.

Calling the bottom in a rigged market is kinda moot.

IdahoCopper wrote:Calling the bottom in a rigged market is kinda moot.

No fooling.

No doubt the market is rigged of course.

But there will always be a bottom in any market. And the forces that manipulate are not all powerful. Eventually the counter forces become unstoppable. Don't discount the analysis in this.

The silver floor beneath us is solid.

This guys wording confuses the hell out of me... I understand that gold/xau ratio is pretty high so he is calling a bottom in the gold market? or just a top in the ratio? I don't think that just because the ratio drops that gold will necessarily go up will it? It actually seems kind of backwards to me (but I have had a few drinks tonight ) If the price of gold goes up from here then I would think the ratio would have a pretty good chance of it as well.

Anyone care to pull the string and turn on my light bulb for me? Please explain the XAU to me as well as what has to happen for it to go up or down.

I could see us putting in a short term bottom for a while but when the next bubble blows I fully expect to see EVERYTHING pull back significantly. I hope it's not right now though as I am all in going for the next rally/correction. Although this has been profitable in the past I don't care to be around when the big one blows. We probably won't know until after it's over but if it happens next week (the next big crash) it wouldn't surprise me although I think we have a while yet. Might be a good time to be getting out of paper and just being happy with the physical stack for a while??

Moriarty (hmmm) is saying that paper gold gets ahead of physical gold at tops due to overexuberance bringing in more paper players which makes sense, and at bottoms physical gold (strong hands) gets ahead of paper gold (speculators) which has a lower XAU/Gold ratio as is currently the case. As the price of gold rises and entices more investors into paper gold the XAU/Gold ratio should rise with it.

I can see why you were confused. He first did the XAU/Gold graph and then the Gold/XAU graph, and referred to one incorrectly.

My favorite measure of investor psychology is the XAU over gold. At tops, investors favor the shares so the XAU is high and at bottoms they favor the metal so gold is high relative to the XAU. We just hit the highest ratio in history.

The highest ratio in history is the Gold/XAU ratio, not XAU/Gold as was stated (which is at its lowest). So in relative terms physical gold is more desirable than paper than it ever has been, thus lending creedence to a bottom. The logic is sound, just a misnomer.

68Camaro wrote:But there will always be a bottom in any market. And the forces that manipulate are not all powerful. Eventually the counter forces become unstoppable. Don't discount the analysis in this.

Yes, there is a bottom down there, somewhere. Can we afford to reach it?

This paper silver and gold could be called "fiat PM". "They" can "print" a million paper ounces to the physical ounce, so long as the big money goes along with the fantasy. When will it break, and where?

Mossy wrote:

68Camaro wrote:But there will always be a bottom in any market. And the forces that manipulate are not all powerful. Eventually the counter forces become unstoppable. Don't discount the analysis in this.

Yes, there is a bottom down there, somewhere. Can we afford to reach it?

This paper silver and gold could be called "fiat PM". "They" can "print" a million paper ounces to the physical ounce, so long as the big money goes along with the fantasy. When will it break, and where?

yes... it hurts during times like these to see your stack losing value , on the other hand, if you have some dry powder you can add a few more ounces during thise discount. Overall, I'd like silver to assert itself and run for the stratosphere so my paper plays can recover.

68Camaro wrote:http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty022213.html

Given that we've hit a high in stocks, and we've had the latest PM "crash", I'm thinking the larger overall trouble lies just ahead.

(emphasis mine).

Hang on.

Great call 68Camaro.