Select Commodities, Jan 1876 to Mar 2013

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Select Commodities, Jan 1876 to Mar 2013

Postby jmaii » Tue May 14, 2013 3:22 pm

I've been learning how to use a new database (Global Financial Data)at the library and thought I'd practice by researching something interesting. This database has the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) by month all the way back to 1876, so I also looked at other measures that also went that far back by month. I selected:

  • CPI
  • PPI
  • Oil ($/Barrel)
  • Corn ($/Bushel)
  • Wheat ($/Bushel)
  • Cotton (¢/lb)
  • Au ($/Toz)
  • Ag ($/Toz)
  • Cu (¢/lb)
  • Cattle (¢/lb)
  • Tin (¢/lb)
  • Cocoa ($/Mton)
  • Coffee (¢/lb)
  • Hog (¢/lb)
  • Lead ($/Ton)
  • Zinc ($/Ton)

I then divided each commodity price by that month's CPI to get a ratio between the commodity and the "basket of market goods." Next I took each month's ratio and divided it by the Jan 1876 value for that commodity to see how "value" has changed for that commodity. So for example:

  • CPI in Jan 1876 was 8.036, Gold was $23.356
  • Jan 1876 Gold/CPI Ratio is 2.906
  • CPI in Mar 2013 was 232.778, Gold was $1597.49
  • Mar 2013 Gold/CPI Ratio is 6.862
  • Comparison ratio between the two dates would be 2.361
  • Over the time period CPI (inflation) increased about 29x, while Gold increased about 68x; the comparison ratio makes it clearer that gold outpaced inflation by more than double

Remember, the world is much different than it was 135 years ago; a lot of these changes may be due to changes in production, distribution, and government controls. Some of the results for Jan 1876 to Mar 2013:

  • Oil ($/Barrel): 1.617 (+61.7% value since 1876)
  • Wheat ($/Bushel): 0.242 (-75.8% % value since 1876)
  • Au ($/Toz): 2.361 (+136.1% value since 1876)
  • Ag ($/Toz): 0.716 (-28.4% value since 1876)
  • Cu (¢/lb): 0.463 (-53.7% value since 1876)
  • Cattle (¢/lb): 1.285 (+28.5% value since 1876)

Here's Gold and Silver over the time period:

Image

I did this all quickly, so please excuse mistakes for now (I'll clean up later if I am so inspired). Feel free to play around with the raw data: http://jmaii.3owl.com/commodities/. IMPORTANT: Excel has trouble with dates before 1900; I used OpenOffice.

I was also interested in data like Nickel prices and average wages, but those series don't start until the 20th century. Taking it easy for the rest of the week, but I can look into other possible data sets a little later.
"Silver and gold, silver and gold / Everyone wishes for silver and gold.
How do you measure it's worth? / Just by the pleasure it gives here on Earth."
-- Sam the Snowman, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer
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jmaii
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