Study Predicts Collapse and Other Outcomes
Posted: Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:13 pmCan be found here: http://www.sesync.org/sites/default/fil ... kalnay.pdf
This is the one NASA is washing it's hands over being associate with.
From the study: . . . accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels.
Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, . . . the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.
(Mathematical formulas deleted) (A)ccumulated Wealth, which increases with production, and decreases with the consumption of the Elites and the Commoners. The consumption of the Commoners (as long as there is enough wealth to pay them) is a subsistence salary per capita, multiplied by the working population. The Elites pay themselves a salary (X) times larger. However, when the wealth becomes too small to pay for this consumption, the payment is reduced and eventually stopped, and famine takes place, with a much higher rate of death.
The scenarios most closely reflecting the reality of our world today are found . . . using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society.
(T)he Elites (due to their wealth) do not suffer the detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners. This buffer of wealth allows Elites to continue 'business as usual" despite the impending catastrophe.
The results show that in the absence of Elites, . . . the population grows smoothly and asymptotes the level of the maximum carrying capacity. This produces a soft-landing to equilibrium at the maximum sustainable population and production levels. (A French Revolution scenario comes to mind here.)
This is the one NASA is washing it's hands over being associate with.
From the study: . . . accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels.
Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, . . . the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.
(Mathematical formulas deleted) (A)ccumulated Wealth, which increases with production, and decreases with the consumption of the Elites and the Commoners. The consumption of the Commoners (as long as there is enough wealth to pay them) is a subsistence salary per capita, multiplied by the working population. The Elites pay themselves a salary (X) times larger. However, when the wealth becomes too small to pay for this consumption, the payment is reduced and eventually stopped, and famine takes place, with a much higher rate of death.
The scenarios most closely reflecting the reality of our world today are found . . . using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society.
(T)he Elites (due to their wealth) do not suffer the detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners. This buffer of wealth allows Elites to continue 'business as usual" despite the impending catastrophe.
The results show that in the absence of Elites, . . . the population grows smoothly and asymptotes the level of the maximum carrying capacity. This produces a soft-landing to equilibrium at the maximum sustainable population and production levels. (A French Revolution scenario comes to mind here.)