Realcent.org

Long ago, I made a vow to never openly speculate on the price of PM's. (That's it, just a one sentence paragraph)

Today, I am spouting off to the world (ok, just realcent forumites) that I currently hold the conviction that a strong, fast, and sudden rebound to higher gold and silver prices now has a favorable probability of happening, and happening soon. By "soon" I mean by the end of trading of next week (Friday, Oct 17), and by "strong, fast, and sudden" I mean a 10+% move higher in 2 days, and it could be as high as a 20% jump in price in less than 4 days. "Favorable probability" means greater than 50%.

This, to me, mean that dry powder should be at a minimum. A stop loss, with a close tie to recent lows, is prudent but low on the probability of happening; yet, can still occur under situations of unusual strength in the US Dollar .

So, there it is. Free advice from a pro. Perhaps it will hang me, perhaps it will help you.

Market Harmony wrote:Long ago, I made a vow to never openly speculate on the price of PM's. (That's it, just a one sentence paragraph)

Today, I am spouting off to the world (ok, just realcent forumites) that I currently hold the conviction that a strong, fast, and sudden rebound to higher gold and silver prices now has a favorable probability of happening, and happening soon. By "soon" I mean by the end of trading of next week (Friday, Oct 17), and by "strong, fast, and sudden" I mean a 10+% move higher in 2 days, and it could be as high as a 20% jump in price in less than 4 days. "Favorable probability" means greater than 50%.

This, to me, mean that dry powder should be at a minimum. A stop loss, with a close tie to recent lows, is prudent but low on the probability of happening; yet, can still occur under situations of unusual strength in the US Dollar .

So, there it is. Free advice from a pro. Perhaps it will hang me, perhaps it will help you.

While I do believe that those who push prices wherever they want to will continue to do so... I'd be very happy to see your outlook come true, Mike. As some point in time (as long as they've established positions they can profit from)
they WILL let it run up. Right now, it seems as if the consensus favors a continuing drop... every one is on that bandwagon... so what better time to blindside the suckers and reverse course?

(that about sums it up)

Rodebaugh wrote::wave:

(that about sums it up)

I see you have mixed emotions?

Last time I sold a house was in August 2008. I was sweating bullets watching the market crash while it was in escrow.

I have another house set to close the end of the month.

oooh, a teensy masochistic part of me wishes JFF was still here. He'd be all "I told you so, I told you so," showing complex graphs
of multi-colored lined diagrams that he wouldn't explain... although...somehow... he had mysteriously failed to anticipate the entire downward
move, all the while predicting a soon-to-be 100 to 400% catapult to higher prices

Nice move so far. Good call, Mike. Let's hope it keeps up

beauanderos wrote:oooh, a teensy masochistic part of me wishes JFF was still here. He'd be all "I told you so, I told you so," showing complex graphs
of multi-colored lined diagrams that he wouldn't explain... although...somehow... he had mysteriously failed to anticipate the entire downward
move, all the while predicting a soon-to-be 100 to 400% catapult to higher prices

Nice move so far. Good call, Mike. Let's hope it keeps up

Quit doing hand stands Ray .....you're reading the chart wrong. We are down for the day, but we have until Oct 17th.

I miss many of the people (with and of Character) that used to frequent back in the JFF days. Certainly, it made RC a more colorful place.

I admire those who would risk making predictive calls such as yours Mike. A call I don't take lightly.

Rodebaugh wrote:

beauanderos wrote:oooh, a teensy masochistic part of me wishes JFF was still here. He'd be all "I told you so, I told you so," showing complex graphs
of multi-colored lined diagrams that he wouldn't explain... although...somehow... he had mysteriously failed to anticipate the entire downward
move, all the while predicting a soon-to-be 100 to 400% catapult to higher prices

Nice move so far. Good call, Mike. Let's hope it keeps up

Quit doing hand stands Ray .....you're reading the chart wrong. We are down for the day, but we have until Oct 17th.

yeah, gold was up $10 and silver up 17 cents when I posted that

I very much feel the same sentiment. Just feels like the bow spring has been pulled taught, and is ready to fly, and it can't stay like that very long.

Read an article about nickel prices and their potential for upward, compared to low silver and it's potential, think it was here. Traded most of my nickels for silver over the past month.

Silver can Limbo, but we are at or very near the low right now.

Engineer wrote:Last time I sold a house was in August 2008. I was sweating bullets watching the market crash while it was in escrow.

I have another house set to close the end of the month.

Now we know who to blame. Doesn't it make you glad to know the entire financial system is working only on you. (Sarcasm if you didn't pick it up. Really do hope it turns out for the best.)

Market Harmony wrote:
So, there it is. Free advice from a pro. Perhaps it will hang me, perhaps it will help you.

One day until we get the rope!

Get the rope. Make the box. Dig the grave.

Right idea. But predictive timing is an unforgiving bitch, and this is a market in which the big boys are now fighting to the death so the variables are hard to follow and some aren't well known in advance.

For me the stakes are huge and I would rather be wrong on timing, lose out on some short term profit, but be right on concept and hold my assets.

Curious Mike,
Why did you make your prediction?

68Camaro wrote:
For me the stakes are huge and I would rather be wrong on timing, lose out on some short term profit, but be right on concept and hold my assets.

Hold, hold, hold, hold, and hold some more. It won't be worth zero!!

christostock wrote:Curious Mike,
Why did you make your prediction?

Seemed to me, after years of watching this market and participating, that I might be aware of the beginning stages of moves up or down. Sentiment being one of the most accurate along with regular business activity being a close second... Many people have been coming into the shop capitulating and many others coming in to back up the truck. When my volumes are up, it is typically at peaks and troughs of the market. I was witnessing this recently and attempted to extrapolate high-probability potential moves based on these past experiences... I had the direction correct, just not the magnitude within a certain timeframe.

Market Harmony wrote:

christostock wrote:Curious Mike,
Why did you make your prediction?

Seemed to me, after years of watching this market and participating, that I might be aware of the beginning stages of moves up or down. Sentiment being one of the most accurate along with regular business activity being a close second... Many people have been coming into the shop capitulating and many others coming in to back up the truck. When my volumes are up, it is typically at peaks and troughs of the market. I was witnessing this recently and attempted to extrapolate high-probability potential moves based on these past experiences... I had the direction correct, just not the magnitude within a certain timeframe.

Don't get down on yourself about prediction. It's probably right longer term and could happen any time, but timing might be slightly off. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Even TPTB don't have a crystal ball. They're watching the same things unfold around the globe in "real time" just like we are. They have more sway than we do, but they are not just "effecting change" but are reacting to it as well. They all are seeing the global economic data, ebola, Ukraine, ISIS, IMF, IRAN, N. Korea, South America, Africa, etc, etc, etc and are trying to figure out how to manipulate their circumstances to their own advantage - just like we are. If it were an exact science when it came to predictions, we'd be sitting in an ivory tower having all our needs met by others.

When my friend recently told me he was bummed about his silver being down 40-50% I told him to step back and look at the big picture. I asked him have things gotten better or worse? Have the fundamentals changed? If things start getting structurally better (unlikely) you can sell. But until structural problems get fixed (again unlikely) don't sweat the timing, keep stacking. Silver is on sale NOW... Buy some now and if it goes down more, buy some more...

Just my 3 cents worth (inflation adjusted)!