From David Schectman

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From David Schectman

Postby 68Camaro » Thu Mar 10, 2011 7:27 pm

On Wednesday, gold, silver, platinum and palladium all held up pretty well, but the mining shares were hit hard - for no apparent reason. Often, that signals a down day, the following day, in gold and silver. Thursday could start as a down day.

The opponents to this move up, the Bullion Banks, are following their usual strategy of "drawing a line in the sand," and doing their best to slow down the relentless (10-year) bull market, and as is always the case, they eventually run for the hills and draw another line in the sand, at a higher price point. Once gold closes above $1,437.50 and stays there for at least two consecutive days, there is NO over-head resistance. Now it won't be a straight line UP - it never is, and this is a good time to re-visit Jim Sinclair's "Golden Angels" and see where future resistance, which will ultimately become support, lies.

Next stop, on the way up is at $1,444 followed by $1,521, $1,600, $1,650, $1,681, $1,764, $1,849, $1,936 and $2,025. This, by the way, is NOT the top! Earlier this week, Sinclair abdicated to his friend, Alf Field and said that his own target of $2,025 is TOO LOW and "Alf's number ($10,000) is more likely." Alf is a technical analyst, and his specialty is Elliot Wave. He has been called "the world's best gold analyst." Here are Alf's predictions:

We are presently in Major Up Move Three.

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

There is no time-table for this move but I would expect the Fifth Wave to take place in the next three to five years.

Bob Chapman is often quoted in this blog. Bob is calling for $1,650 in the near term and $2,400 by the end of the year. $1,650 is Jim Sinclair's "magic" number too.

Richard Russell has never, to my knowledge, offered up a "number," but he does believe that gold will sell one or two to one to the Dow. Gold is currently selling at 8.56 to one. Using Russell's projection, we could see Gold and the Dow at 4,000 or gold at $5,000 and the Dow at 10,000 or any combination you wish to plug in. What is important, in Russell's view, is the TREND. Gold is outperforming the stock market and has for a decade.

There is an awful lot of experience and credibility between Jim Sinclair, Alf Field, Bob Chapman and Richard Russell. This bull market is getting ready to really launch. Most likely, it will happen with the dollar in full retreat. The current USDX is 76,72 and below 71 all bets are off (for the sinking dollar) and gold will be on the way to a powerful move up. Dollar below 71 (and falling) and gold above $1,650 (and rising) are in our future - later this year.
In the game of Woke, the goal posts can be moved at any moment, the penalties will apply retroactively and claims of fairness will always lose out to the perpetual right to claim offense.... Bret Stephens
The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it. George Orwell.
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