Realcent.org

I agree with the general thesis, but want to challenge something from the article. It essentially said that until the past 2 weeks they never saw (over the last 15 years) the commercials be net long. Look at the bar chart they have included. The week of 9/5/17 (the first bar on the chart from a year ago) the commercials (maroon color) were net long, as evidenced by being above the zero line on the extreme left side of the chart. Am I missing something or is this in fact NOT the first time the commercials have been net long?

I'd like to also see the rest of the 15 years of data before reaching any real exciting conclusions. They talk about 15 years and show me charts only going back 1 year.

Also, Ted Butler (silver guru- who has been analyzing this info for many years now) has gotten really excited about silver a bunch of times. I appreciate his level of technical knowledge, but it hasn't made me any money.

To me, until I am proven wrong, I still see silver as something that can be in the doldrums for 10-20 years, punctuated by a 3-9 month period where it goes up, say, 300% to 1,000%. And the problem with that is that silver can quickly go up, say, 20-30% in just a few weeks. People get excited and buy aggressively because they think it is one of those 3-9 month gigantic moves. And it turns out to be a headfake. And then they become bitter and, in some cases, give up (or take to drinking again!)

I agree with Recyclersteve that silver price can literally wear you out by flatlining or slowly declining for years if not decades before having an uptrend form (similar to the 30 year commodity cycles). Easy way to temper that is don't buy it as an investment. Buy it for peace of mind and asset protection.

As far as Ted Butler goes, making money from his analyses is a matter of timing. I received a lengthy, detailed, unsolicited analysis of silver from him via "Investment Rarities" (Owned by James Cook), a metals broker/seller in Minnesota back in 2002 and he was pounding the table for people to buy silver at under $5 per ounce. Very compelling info to the first timer reading it (me) so that is when I switched from being a coin collector to being a bullion accumulator. I started buying silver eagles and maple leafs as fast as I could get my hand on cash to pay for them. I was buying eagles and ML's at less than $7 each. So, I timed it right. However, did I make money? Thats a tough question. Basically, despite the fact that silver went up and almost touched $50/ounce, I never sold and I continue to buy. So, I never realized a gain, but I am holding many many bullion coins at a fantastic price even with silver at about $14/ounce. I dollar cost average into silver (and gold). They are assets that I am holding to preserve my wealth (what there is of it). I don't know at what price I would ever sell any.

2 Cents from silverflake

Keep stacking

Butler and others can be right on the issues and reasons but the big boys can outlast anyone trying to follow their game. I got drilled when I saw their patterns in 2011 and started to trade metals etfs, then got caught out on the wrong side of the trade when they decided to reverse direction. But in the long game, as wealth preservation, it's difficult not to like a hard position in long term metal, in the face of global record debt and fiat.