Lemon Thrower wrote:Steve, there are really 2 questions for you: Can you tack your holding period in Ecolab when you sell the Apergy? I think you can, and this should be explained in the federal tax section of the prospectus you recevied. If its a straight merger with no boot I think that is the result. Second, are you willing to take the volatility risk in the Apergy stock. Keep in mind, what was called a $111 offer may have already changed if Apergy's stock price has changed, and it may fluctuate further between the time you commit to the transaction and are able to sell the Apergy stock.
I'm not sure how to answer the tax question, so I respectfully punt on that one. I don't plan on reading the prospectus and giving tax advice- you or anyone else on this fine site (maybe a professional accountant) can try their hand at that.
They don't literally mean $111, as Apergy is an $8 stock. They are just trying to say that when they do their calculations, the APY stock will be granted at a 10% discount to the price after using the formula they use. $100 is exactly 10% less than $111.11, so that's why these use those numbers. 10% is normally very nice and is better than the average stock does in a year, but, in this market APY could go down more than 10% in a day!
In fact, just for grins, I went back and looked at the price action on APY stock each day since the markets blew up (IMHO that day was 2/24/20). Here are the days (just since 2/24) where APY went down more than 10% in a single day:
2/27
3/6
3/9
3/12
3/16
3/17
3/23
4/15
4/16
4/30
So that is 10 times that this stock would have given up the entire 10% discount and more in just a single day over less than a 3-month period. I'm already talking myself into going into a more defensive posture on this one. So think this one through carefully. Look up the word "conservative" in the dictionary and I guarantee you will not see a picture of the APY stock chart.
Another way to play this is by buying ECL stock, and, if it goes up a decent amount in the next 1-2 weeks, not submitting to exchange shares at all, but rather just selling ECL outright and pocketing your profit without taking the risk of doing the conversion and being left to hope APY doesn't crater thereafter. If my net worth was a bit higher and my wife was more likely to embrace me taking the risk, I'd be very tempted to have no qualms about doubling down on APY a few times and then just saying "Oh well- live and learn" if they went kaput. I could do it on a small scale, but don't want to do it with $20-60k invested.
Because of the risk involved I do think there will be a sizeable amount of people who will wait to the very last minute before deciding whether they want to do the deal. Call your broker about that if that is what you are thinking about because there might be some rules involved. For instance, the buy of ECL may have to settle (2 business days) before you can tender to exchange those shares. That also could vary from broker to broker. Brokers have a lot of in-house rules that can be stricter than general rules that most people adhere to. One good example of this is in regards to buying stocks on margin. Many brokers will not loan money to people who want to gamble on stocks that have gone up 500-100% in just a few months. And, frankly, I don't blame them.
Also, for those who aren't aware, it is possible at many brokers to indicate that you want to exchange shares of ECL for APY, then change your mind later and take the ECL shares back before the deal closes. Just PLEASE be on top of your broker's in-house rules for this process and whether or not they will allow it. Also, be prepared for a potentially long hold time getting through to someone who can actually help. This is often a very small department only in during normal business hours.
Good luck with this one, Lemon.