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I'll go out on a limb and project that whatever comes out of Joey's mouth at 8:01 this morning will be designed to deflect and detract rather than address the underlying cause(s) for the current situation.

Never let a crisis go to waste. Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f things up. Remember those quotes this week as regional banks hang on by their fingernails.

Not to mention there are now 2 banks with the problem. SVB and Signature:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/regulat ... -risk.html

First Republic is next.

Morsecode wrote:I'll go out on a limb and project that whatever comes out of Joey's mouth at 8:01 this morning will be designed to deflect and detract rather than address the underlying cause(s) for the current situation.

Never let a crisis go to waste. Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f things up. Remember those quotes this week as regional banks hang on by their fingernails.

Trump would've allowed the same things to happen. You cannot have zero interest rates forever, that's what Trump wanted.

NO politician(s) can stop this. Some type of financial system crash is inevitable. The timing is impossible to predict.

Morsecode wrote:I'll go out on a limb and project that whatever comes out of Joey's mouth at 8:01 this morning will be designed to deflect and detract rather than address the underlying cause(s) for the current situation.

Never let a crisis go to waste. Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f things up. Remember those quotes this week as regional banks hang on by their fingernails.

His update was basically 10 min of my life that I won't get back. He reads out the same thing that was already posted online, ignores reporter questions, and tries to walk out of the room without falling down. I hope everyone who voted for him likes what they got.

I think Americans are likely to be far more reactionary to perceived instability going forward. Everything (in this instance, deposits) will become COVID toilet paper panic runs. The rub is that it's sort of self-reinforcing, and even the level-headed are caught in a bind. If everyone else is making a run on a bank (or toilet paper, or gas); being the person who doesn't want to contribute to the panic to help maintain stability can mean you're the one person left empty-handed.

Diversify. Even with modest assets. Go with a credit union and or a local bank, a major regional with a conservative balance sheet, and a national or multi regional bank. Split up your money but only to the extent that you don't incur extra fees. Split up deposits. Transfer money between banks to keep funds balanced. Make sure you keep some cash in a hidden /safe spot that is not in a SDB.

68Camaro wrote:Diversify. Even with modest assets. Go with a credit union and or a local bank, a major regional with a conservative balance sheet, and a national or multi regional bank. Split up your money but only to the extent that you don't incur extra fees. Split up deposits. Transfer money between banks to keep funds balanced. Make sure you keep some cash in a hidden /safe spot that is not in a SDB.

Incidentally (and ironically), it appears that lack of diversification was SVB's downfall.

Individual, or institution -- heed 68's words.

Out of curiosity, I was spelunking the ole FDIC site. There have been over 120 bank failures in the last decade(ish). All of the assets of those banks combined doesn't equal the assets of this single bank.

Year : Number of Bank Failures
2012 : 51
2013 : 24
2014 : 18
2015 : 8
2016 : 5
2017 : 8
2018 : 0
2019 : 4
2020 : 4
2021 : 0
2022 : 0
2023 : 1 (so far... and it's a big one)

Combined assets (in millions) of the 122 banks: $35,455
Assets of the 1 (in millions): $209,000

This is also (from what I can find) the first failure from a run on a bank since '08.

Doctor Steuss wrote:Out of curiosity, I was spelunking the ole FDIC site. There have been over 120 bank failures in the last decade(ish). All of the assets of those banks combined doesn't equal the assets of this single bank.

Year : Number of Bank Failures
2012 : 51
2013 : 24
2014 : 18
2015 : 8
2016 : 5
2017 : 8
2018 : 0
2019 : 4
2020 : 4
2021 : 0
2022 : 0
2023 : 1 (so far... and it's a big one)

Combined assets (in millions) of the 122 banks: $35,455
Assets of the 1 (in millions): $209,000

This is also (from what I can find) the first failure from a run on a bank since '08.

Nice post!

Does anyone want to talk about this from a stock market standpoint and how to play it? If not, I won’t spend a lot of time working up names and a potential strategy.

Doctor Steuss wrote:Out of curiosity, I was spelunking the ole FDIC site. There have been over 120 bank failures in the last decade(ish). All of the assets of those banks combined doesn't equal the assets of this single bank.

Year : Number of Bank Failures
2012 : 51
2013 : 24
2014 : 18
2015 : 8
2016 : 5
2017 : 8
2018 : 0
2019 : 4
2020 : 4
2021 : 0
2022 : 0
2023 : 1 (so far... and it's a big one)

Combined assets (in millions) of the 122 banks: $35,455
Assets of the 1 (in millions): $209,000

This is also (from what I can find) the first failure from a run on a bank since '08.

Billions, not millions.

Doctor Steuss wrote:Out of curiosity, I was spelunking the ole FDIC site. There have been over 120 bank failures in the last decade(ish). All of the assets of those banks combined doesn't equal the assets of this single bank.

Year : Number of Bank Failures
2012 : 51
2013 : 24
2014 : 18
2015 : 8
2016 : 5
2017 : 8
2018 : 0
2019 : 4
2020 : 4
2021 : 0
2022 : 0
2023 : 1 (so far... and it's a big one)

Combined assets (in millions) of the 122 banks: $35,455
Assets of the 1 (in millions): $209,000

This is also (from what I can find) the first failure from a run on a bank since '08.

LOL just woke up and forget exact numbers offhand but I happened to look this up myself yesterday and it was something like 570 banks I believe since 01. (according to your same source) Mostly in the 08-09 range. So during that period it was a new bank every few days on average for over two years. Makes me wonder why people are hyping this up so heavily. A guess I have is a build up to more regulations on cryptos, but obviously just a guess.

It's getting attention because if it had been left alone (as it should have been) it would have left a trail of destruction from the knock on effect. But TPTB also know to use these events for their own benefit so they are looking for more control.

68Camaro wrote:It's getting attention because if it had been left alone (as it should have been) it would have left a trail of destruction from the knock on effect. But TPTB also know to use these events for their own benefit so they are looking for more control.

Contagion! European banks getting dumped today. Credit Suisse will be gone soon. Hold on to your hats (and PMs).

Makes me wonder who is short selling Credit Suisse? George Soros? This isn't normal fear of bank runs; I smell something odd here. Like an orchestrated take down of major institutions.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:Billions, not millions.

I know it's clunky (that's the way FDIC had them listed), but the numbers were given in millions.

$209,000 in millions = 209,000,000,000

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Interestingly, FDIC's assessment of SVB's assets is about 3 billion less than SVB's website. I imagine once you get up into those numbers though, a tiny shift in rates makes billions appear and disappear in the blink of an eye.

Right now, it fortunately looks like the assets exceed deposits (by over 30 billion), so taxpayers might not be on the hook for this one.

Holy Cow! Just checked the bonds for sale in my TD Ameritrade account. In the "A3" rated section (INVESTMENT GRADE!) there's page after page of Credit Suisse bonds for sale at massive discounts. There's a May 2023 1% Credit Suisse bond selling for under 90 with a annualized yield to maturity of almost 83% !!!!!!! Wha........???

Looks like Saudi's announced they are not adding anymore of their money into Credit Suisse. With the number of bonds listed for sale at massive discounts and the CS stock now a penny stock, I think Credit Suisse might be next to fall my friends. So, Silvergate, SVB, Signature bank.....Credit Suisse? Hmmmm...

BUY GOLD!

68Camaro wrote:Makes me wonder who is short selling Credit Suisse? George Soros? This isn't normal fear of bank runs; I smell something odd here. Like an orchestrated take down of major institutions.

Great googely-moogely, the CS stock in the last week has dropped almost 40% (if my dirty math is correct).

Aaaaaand the Swiss National Bank comes in for the rescue of Credit Suisse with a $54 billion loan.

This world is warped.

Keep stacking gold.

silverflake wrote:Aaaaaand the Swiss National Bank comes in for the rescue of Credit Suisse with a $54 billion loan.

This world is warped.

Keep stacking gold.

CS should've failed a long time ago. So many problems.

I have accounts in several different banks. Since the bank failures that took place just a week ago, I have gotten emails from ALL of the banks telling me how great of shape financially they are in and how stable they are. And that I have nothing to worry about and that my money and accounts with them are safe.

Funny before the bank collapses started happening, I never heard anything from them about what a great costumer I was and how glad they were to provide me with banking services.

I went to one of them today and the teller told me they have seen a lot of cash leave the bank in the last week.

Do you really feel safe. The FDIC has insurance funds of $128 billion for all the US banks. Silicon Valley and Signature had assets of $350 billion. In contrast much more highly regulated and smaller Credit Unions have $228 billion in the NCUA insurance fund.

68Camaro wrote:Makes me wonder who is short selling Credit Suisse? George Soros? This isn't normal fear of bank runs; I smell something odd here. Like an orchestrated take down of major institutions.

Maybe something odd is going on, but shorting a $2 stock that was well over $70 back ca. 2007 just doesn’t make sense. The big money has already been made. Furthermore, I tried placing an order to short only 100 shares and my broker’s system rejected the order, saying it is Hard to Borrow, meaning all shares have been loaned out to other short sellers already.

Also, my understanding is that shares held in non-margin accounts such as retirement accounts are ineligible to be loaned out to short sellers.

I would almost always be VERY NERVOUS about shorting something so cheap already. If a $2 stock bounces to only $3, you are LOSING 50%. Ouch! No thanks!