Trading/Investment Thread

[DeanStockwell]

Its been mentioned before, and I think Realcent deserves a Trading/Investment thread. Traders and investors alike can post any purchases/short sales they have initiated, prices, and if they prefer, reasons why. Futures, Stocks, Bonds, etc etc. This could turn into a discussion of new techniques and education for everyone, seasoned pros and beginners alike. Opinions?
If this takes off it would be nice for a mod or admin to sticky it, so it is easily visible in the Economics Board.

Suggestions to possibly include
Purchase Price
Type of Purchase(Option, Stock)
Stop Price/Stop Trail(Cut losses)
Limit Price(Lock in profits)
Reason(Detail fundamental/technical reasons)

[DeanStockwell]

Currently Long:
SIX
MRO
MMS
*All are bullish call spreads.

I'll edit this post for reasons why tomorrow.

[Lemon Thrower]

long SLW

[68Camaro]

Agree with the new thread, and with making it a sticky.

Long CEF, PSLV, PHYS, FCX

[Rodebaugh]

Long...... DOW, AA, FCX

[beauanderos]

Long AGQ, NUGT, DGP, SIL, SLW, AG, EXK, SVM, MGV, HL, PAAS, CDE, AUMN, SSRI, GDXJ, SWC, PAL, a basket of silver juniors, and a basket of uranium juniors. No longer holding AEM, GG, KGC, AUY gold miners since a year ago... dead money. If you believe in the silver story and have money to play the market... you have to hold AGQ (double silver). It was the number one ETF last year with a 168% gain. Already up over 100% this year.

[Rodebaugh]

Thanks for the heads up on AGQ Ray.

[68Camaro]

Yep thanks. Ill look it and the others up when i get home.

Thanks for the heads up on AGQ Ray.

[DeanStockwell]

I will advise against investing in AGQ, or any other leveraged etf for the long term(over 2 or 3 months). You'd be better off investing in SLV. Be aware and make an educated decision after reading the below article.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/129257- ... raged-etfs

Planned Positions for the Week
-Still holding SIX[Six Flags] - although getting cautious because +DI and -DI keep crossing over eachother. This could signal a reversal. I've moved up my stops.


-MRO[Marathon Oil] - is moving towards resistance(54 territory), yet I believe this is the start of a new uptrend because of the sustained +DI/-DI crossover. I'll be prepared to sell this quickly if it appears we are falling away from resistance.


-MMS[Maximus] - Still long, I really like the chart. ADX is beginning to slope upwards, and the +DI is getting further ahead of the -DI line.


-Planning on initiating a long position in SSW[Seaspan]. I made a sizable chunk(~$3/share) last month when I spotted the +DI/-DI crossover. Shot from $16 to $21/share before falling back to $18. We are now seeing another +DI/-DI crossover; and we are in a long term uptrend that should sustain itself. This chart is downright sexy.


For the record:
SIX-70.54
MRO-53.84
MMS-79.54
SSW-18.92

The markets(Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) look like they will have a positive week. Good luck everyone!

[beauanderos]

I will advise against investing in AGQ, or any other leveraged etf for the long term(over 2 or 3 months). You'd be better off investing in SLV. Be aware and make an educated decision after reading the below article.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/129257- ... raged-etfs

I have to disagree, Dean. The article cited refers to leveraged INVERSE ETF's and, for those entities, does make some sense in regards to exercising caution. AGQ is actually ideal for playing the price rise of silver and adding an extra boost of rocket fuel. As the ETF resets on a daily basis, it actually outperforms double the price rise. When da boyz attack silver, what happens? It plunges rapidly, for a day or two. Yes, at those times you can experience terrifying losses with AGQ, but if you don't set stops you can ride it out and surpass the previous highs. When silver recovers, it usually doesn't surge... it moves twenty or thirty cents a day... UPWARDS. Several days in a row... with the "reset" occuring each day. When you return to the same spot price as before, AGQ will more than likely be higher than it was before the plunge. Do you think silver is going to keep rising? I know you don't, but you can't convince me that an ETF that I bought for mid-$40's range in February last year, not even fifteen months ago, and has now risen over 755%, is a bad bet. Silver thrives on all of the crap the FED is pulling... and that isn't going to change. AGQ is my largest holding, weighted about 65% of my portfolio, and I am extremely happy with it. I have two funds that hold nothing but AGQ... and they are up 115% so far this year. I'm not getting off this train for a long time. Do your own due diligence, Dean... and maybe you'll change your mind. But then... you'd rather play double inverse against silver, using sophisticated market timing tools. Good luck with that.

[DeanStockwell]

I will advise against investing in AGQ, or any other leveraged etf for the long term(over 2 or 3 months). You'd be better off investing in SLV. Be aware and make an educated decision after reading the below article.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/129257- ... raged-etfs

I have to disagree, Dean. The article cited refers to leveraged INVERSE ETF's and, for those entities, does make some sense in regards to exercising caution. AGQ is actually ideal for playing the price rise of silver and adding an extra boost of rocket fuel. As the ETF resets on a daily basis, it actually outperforms double the price rise. When da boyz attack silver, what happens? It plunges rapidly, for a day or two. Yes, at those times you can experience terrifying losses with AGQ, but if you don't set stops you can ride it out and surpass the previous highs. When silver recovers, it usually doesn't surge... it moves twenty or thirty cents a day... UPWARDS. Several days in a row... with the "reset" occuring each day. When you return to the same spot price as before, AGQ will more than likely be higher than it was before the plunge. Do you think silver is going to keep rising? I know you don't, but you can't convince me that an ETF that I bought for mid-$40's range in February last year, not even fifteen months ago, and has now risen over 755%, is a bad bet. Silver thrives on all of the crap the FED is pulling... and that isn't going to change. AGQ is my largest holding, weighted about 65% of my portfolio, and I am extremely happy with it. I have two funds that hold nothing but AGQ... and they are up 115% so far this year. I'm not getting off this train for a long time. Do your own due diligence, Dean... and maybe you'll change your mind. But then... you'd rather play double inverse against silver, using sophisticated market timing tools. Good luck with that.

I will advise against investing in AGQ, or any other leveraged etf for the long term(over 2 or 3 months). You'd be better off investing in SLV. Be aware and make an educated decision after reading the below article.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/129257- ... raged-etfs

I have to disagree, Dean. The article cited refers to leveraged INVERSE ETF's and, for those entities, does make some sense in regards to exercising caution. AGQ is actually ideal for playing the price rise of silver and adding an extra boost of rocket fuel. As the ETF resets on a daily basis, it actually outperforms double the price rise. When da boyz attack silver, what happens? It plunges rapidly, for a day or two. Yes, at those times you can experience terrifying losses with AGQ, but if you don't set stops you can ride it out and surpass the previous highs. When silver recovers, it usually doesn't surge... it moves twenty or thirty cents a day... UPWARDS. Several days in a row... with the "reset" occuring each day. When you return to the same spot price as before, AGQ will more than likely be higher than it was before the plunge. Do you think silver is going to keep rising? I know you don't, but you can't convince me that an ETF that I bought for mid-$40's range in February last year, not even fifteen months ago, and has now risen over 755%, is a bad bet. Silver thrives on all of the crap the FED is pulling... and that isn't going to change. AGQ is my largest holding, weighted about 65% of my portfolio, and I am extremely happy with it. I have two funds that hold nothing but AGQ... and they are up 115% so far this year. I'm not getting off this train for a long time. Do your own due diligence, Dean... and maybe you'll change your mind. But then... you'd rather play double inverse against silver, using sophisticated market timing tools. Good luck with that.

To Realcent:
Although the article only gave Inverse etfs as an example, it still mentions "regular" x2 etfs.

If the silver price increases, let's say 10% one day and 20% the next, a baseline index like SLV should increase in overall value by 32%. AGQ would increase by 68%, although it supposed to be only 2x leverage. If the silver price decreases, the situation is reversed. SLV sees a decrease of 32, AGQ by 68%.

If the silver price is not trending, but trading in a hypothetical range, silver goes up 10% one day, 20% the next, then down 30%, a baseline index like SLV should decrease in value by 7.6%. AGQ would decrease by 32.8%. What happened to that 2x leverage?

If we are trending upwards with large price swings(the current situation)...
10% up, 8% down, 10% up, 8% down, 10% up, 8% down:
SLV should be up by ~3.64%. AGQ should be up ~2.42%. WHAT? I thought we were in an uptrend? I thought AGQ should provide double the return of the silver spot price? I am out 4.86%!The ONLY way to avoid rebalancing is to sell your holdings at the end of the day and then rebuy them when the market opens. Yet this would open up a whole new can of worms. To those absolutely having to have a 2x return on their silver investment, using margin to buy a nonleveraged etf would be a much better idea, so long as the margin does not constitute more than ~25% of your portfolio value.
To Beauanderos:
I don't quite understand the harsh tone. I am glad you have made large returns during this uptrend and I hope you have taken some profits off the table. But rather than criticize for going against your advice, which will work better-than-perfectly in a sustained uptrend with no volatility, as I illustrated in my example, rebalancing WILL hurt you if we see volatility or a downswing. I urge you to continue your research in the matter and revisit your decision to hold leveraged ETFs as a long term investment.
Also, I have said many times that I believe the price of silver will rise over the long term...I have a very large proportion of my assets in physical silver and gold(although mostly gold now, I've swapped from silver). Playing in ZSL is only short term, and positions in ZSL are almost always less than 5 trading days.
I also take a bit of offense at your remark to do my own due diligence...I feel like your comment could better be directed towards yourself in regards to this matter, although I am impressed at your returns and wisdom in regards to many topics. Although I have not done quite as well as you have, I have beat the market nearly 2 times over in the past year. As for not using stops, that is a very dangerous business for beginning traders/investors.
No hard feelings towards you beauanderos, and I hope you have none towards myself.

[beauanderos]

My last post was perhaps laced with mental invective, which in a perfect world would be directed at those manipulating the silver markets, not those using or advising use of double inverse silver ETF's (ZSL) to profit from such machinnations. I get a bit defensive, and I guess it shows, when you and Jonflyfish "rain on my parade." After eight years of making sacrifices to buy as much physical silver as I could (and being mocked by coworkers as a zealous idiot) I decided I had enough physical and it was time to turn to paper trading and pump up the returns if possible. Against conventional wisdom (in here) I have been maxing out my 401k, which is a self-directed account. I feel certain we are going to face hyperinflation, which means, one must not only perform well, but perform extremely well in one's returns to achieve more than merely a nominal return. I'm going to say if you aren't making at least 20% you are dead in the water. So, naturally, with my stockpile of bullion as a fallback defense, I am able to swing for the fences, and AGQ has been knocking them out of the park. For every time period that Yahoo Financial is capable of displaying, AGQ has posted better than the expected return of SLV, in most time frames it has been triple. Yes, as you point out, in a strictly sideways trending market AGQ would underperform, disappointingly, due to its daily resets. But during rises it outperforms expectations, and in the last two years the rises have more than made up for the consolidative periods and the pullbacks. I do occasionally sell off some AGQ to buy other silver mining equities... and so far, seemingly, each time I've done that it's been a mistake in hindsight. The miners are not doing as well as the bullion and it has impacted one of my mixed portfolios such that it is up only 68% so far this year, compared to the pure AGQ funds. It's easy to feel like a genius when you guess lucky, which is what I've done, but you have to have indomitable fortitude to ride out the ups and downs an ETF like AGQ will produce on a daily basis. Most probably aren't cut out for it, and my previous post should only be construed to convey that there are tools to supercharge your porfolio if, as I am, you are convicted that silver has no where to go but up, and at a pace no one can even imagine. AGQ is silver on steroids. If you are going to try it, why not take a portion of your portfolio, no more than ten percent, and divide it into four quartiles. Buy AGG and hold. But AGQ and use stops and try and time the market to your advantage, selling high and buying back on dips. Buy SLV and hold. Buy SLV and use stops and try and time the market to your advantage. See what happens. I don't have the tools that the big traders use (my envy showing) and I wouldn't even understand them without alot of study which I'm not inclined to devote. I use logic, reasoning, and my own rationale as to the market sentiment to divine my moves. I guess I get disgruntled when someone naysays my suggestion to try replicating something that has worked remarkably well for me, and so I need to extend an apology for my heated debate if it seemed too personalized. By the way, AGQ is best traded inside a 401K or IRA as there are tax consequences that may catch you off-guard otherwise. Also, for those who promote the buy and hold philosophy of bullion, for anyone concerned about safety of a large stash, holding ETF's is a safe form of storing large amounts of money and is the equivalent (potential profit-wise) as you will be taxed when you pull it out. AQG = 200%, after taxes 100%, bullion outside shelters = 100% Dean, I DO like your idea for enhancing portfolio performance by using margin to buy an unleveraged ETF. I don't like SLV for many reasons to numerous to go into, but I might look around for another vehicle with which to try this. Good idea! (for a limited portion of your funds)

[DeanStockwell]

Out of MRO @ 53.
Still in SIX, MMS, and SSW.
Lots of earning estimates beat today, should bode very well for stocks.

[Rodebaugh]

Out of FCX at 44.83 yesterday.

Looking to buy again.

[Rodebaugh]

Small lot of AGQ picked up @ 326.96..............stop loss entered at $255

Medium lot of LO picked up @ 104.30.............Smoke up! bought the news.

[Lemon Thrower]

Ray, i don't have an opinion on AGQ but I agree with your logic about a cushion of real money allowing you to swing for the fences with a portion of your portfolio. I am doing the same with SLW leaps.

[beauanderos]

I should try a few SLW leaps, I got burned on CDE leaps a few years back. Today would actually be a good day to look at the cost.

[beauanderos]

Crap! Just sold SWC for a slight loss and HL for a bit of a gain. Planned to buy 13 SLW Jan 2013 $50 strike price LEAPS for $695... but it said account not approved for this level of trading. Dagnabit!!! Wound up buying 30 more shares of AGQ at $317

[Country]

Just bought a little CEF at $23.78 in the last couple minutes. More oversold than the underlying GOLD and SILVER; approximately 2% more oversold than it should be.

As of tonight, CEF's premium is NEGATIVE; -1.1. Never seen it this low in quite a while; it normally carries a +6% to +8% premium.

[68Camaro]

Out of FCX at 44.83 yesterday.

Looking to buy again.

Presuming that's a typo? 54.83 maybe? Why'd you get out? Still looking good.

[DeanStockwell]

Small lot of AGQ picked up @ 326.96..............stop loss entered at $255

Medium lot of LO picked up @ 104.30.............Smoke up! bought the news.

Phew, watch out for that LO. Good fundies but that chart is a bit scary for me. Looks like it still has some room to move, though.

[DeanStockwell]

My last post was perhaps laced with mental invective, which in a perfect world would be directed at those manipulating the silver markets, not those using or advising use of double inverse silver ETF's (ZSL) to profit from such machinnations. I get a bit defensive, and I guess it shows, when you and Jonflyfish "rain on my parade." After eight years of making sacrifices to buy as much physical silver as I could (and being mocked by coworkers as a zealous idiot) I decided I had enough physical and it was time to turn to paper trading and pump up the returns if possible. Against conventional wisdom (in here) I have been maxing out my 401k, which is a self-directed account. I feel certain we are going to face hyperinflation, which means, one must not only perform well, but perform extremely well in one's returns to achieve more than merely a nominal return. I'm going to say if you aren't making at least 20% you are dead in the water. So, naturally, with my stockpile of bullion as a fallback defense, I am able to swing for the fences, and AGQ has been knocking them out of the park. For every time period that Yahoo Financial is capable of displaying, AGQ has posted better than the expected return of SLV, in most time frames it has been triple. Yes, as you point out, in a strictly sideways trending market AGQ would underperform, disappointingly, due to its daily resets. But during rises it outperforms expectations, and in the last two years the rises have more than made up for the consolidative periods and the pullbacks. I do occasionally sell off some AGQ to buy other silver mining equities... and so far, seemingly, each time I've done that it's been a mistake in hindsight. The miners are not doing as well as the bullion and it has impacted one of my mixed portfolios such that it is up only 68% so far this year, compared to the pure AGQ funds. It's easy to feel like a genius when you guess lucky, which is what I've done, but you have to have indomitable fortitude to ride out the ups and downs an ETF like AGQ will produce on a daily basis. Most probably aren't cut out for it, and my previous post should only be construed to convey that there are tools to supercharge your porfolio if, as I am, you are convicted that silver has no where to go but up, and at a pace no one can even imagine. AGQ is silver on steroids. If you are going to try it, why not take a portion of your portfolio, no more than ten percent, and divide it into four quartiles. Buy AGG and hold. But AGQ and use stops and try and time the market to your advantage, selling high and buying back on dips. Buy SLV and hold. Buy SLV and use stops and try and time the market to your advantage. See what happens. I don't have the tools that the big traders use (my envy showing) and I wouldn't even understand them without alot of study which I'm not inclined to devote. I use logic, reasoning, and my own rationale as to the market sentiment to divine my moves. I guess I get disgruntled when someone naysays my suggestion to try replicating something that has worked remarkably well for me, and so I need to extend an apology for my heated debate if it seemed too personalized. By the way, AGQ is best traded inside a 401K or IRA as there are tax consequences that may catch you off-guard otherwise. Also, for those who promote the buy and hold philosophy of bullion, for anyone concerned about safety of a large stash, holding ETF's is a safe form of storing large amounts of money and is the equivalent (potential profit-wise) as you will be taxed when you pull it out. AQG = 200%, after taxes 100%, bullion outside shelters = 100% Dean, I DO like your idea for enhancing portfolio performance by using margin to buy an unleveraged ETF. I don't like SLV for many reasons to numerous to go into, but I might look around for another vehicle with which to try this. Good idea! (for a limited portion of your funds)

Thanks for the informative post. I hope that CEF works out for you. I looked up the premium and that is very odd.
As for your apology, I do not think one was warranted. Are you using margin?

[68Camaro]

Discretion being the better part of valor, I just sold FCX at 54.48. The small profit is ok. Will get back into it maybe at a lower number again after things settle out with the latest on the Bernank. (OK, it looks like I'm copying Chris on this, and I did on the buy, but the sell was just the right time.)

[beauanderos]

Dean,
I'm not intentionally using margin, but sometimes some of my tech shorts move in the wrong direction and put me there. I used to play AGQ inside a normal (unsheltered) trading account, but I read that there were some unintended consequences of that ETF that can occur when redemptions lead to unrealized gains (and subsequently, taxes due) that threw me off of it. Looks like my pickup of about 50 shares of AGQ in the $315 - $317 range is paying off today... but that's a long-term hold for me anyway. May scrape a bit off the table if silver penetrates $50.

[Rodebaugh]

Rich don't follow my lead! I am a clown when it comes to "the market". and yes 54.83. Why did I sell? To lock in my profit and free up cash.

Ray solid buy on the AGQ. Thanks for leading me to it.

LO is/was an impulse buy. good fundamentals with great momentum. I will sell half my holding at a 10% profit.