Just-in-time inventory: Why you shouldn't wait to stock up

[Nickelless]

Here's a post I just made on my blog:

http://survivalprep.net/2010/11/30/five ... inflation/

I had a day off two days before Thanksgiving, so I decided I'd finally do a partial "dry run" of marathon shopping trips I've been planning along a 150-mile stretch of a major highway. From one end of this route to the other, there are no fewer than nine 24-hour Walmart Supercenters. I had enough time that day to travel to five of the stores. What I discovered surprised me, and I hope my experience serves as a wakeup call for anyone who has been lazy with their prepping. Waiting to stock up is the biggest mistake any of us could make.

I work nights so it's usually easiest for me to travel from early evening to early morning -- the hours I usually keep anyway. The first caveat I'll offer for those of you who do your preps shopping at night is that at most big-box stores, items are still being restocked throughout the night and into the morning, so IF something you need isn't on the shelf, it might be coming up. Or you might just be out of luck.

Since I was just doing a "dry run" and not a full-fledged shopping trip, at the first store I decided to get just one package of each item I had on my list to see how long it would take on average to navigate the aisles I needed to go to, then extrapolate that time over the number of stores I planned to visit -- since food items are clustered together, I figured that the time spent picking up assorted non-food items around the store would be a better indication of how long it would take to navigate each store, then once I had picked up those items I would finish my shopping in the grocery section.

In the health and beauty section, I picked up a toothbrush, a bottle of Great Value brand amber mouthwash (a great oral disinfectant in addition to brushing), a package of dental floss and a package of Lava soap. In the sporting goods section, I picked up a box of ammo, a bottle of gun cleaner and gun oil and a magnesium fire starter kit. In the men's clothing section, I picked up a pair of gloves and a package of socks.

Then I headed for the grocery section. And a lesson in both de facto food-price inflation and just-in-time inventory procedures.

To keep things simple on this test-run, I planned on grabbing just four grocery items--a case of Great Value canned salmon, a bag of Great Value pinto beans, a container of Great Value oatmeal and (my exception to my one-item rule) a case each of Great Value canned spinach and Great Value canned sliced carrots. I use each of these items on a regular basis, so of course I thought everything would be right where it always was. Boy, was I wrong. And I didn't realize how wrong I was until I got to the fifth Walmart.

At the first store, I found everything I was looking for, and in fairly ample supply. Except for the canned carrots. There wasn't a single can of Great Value canned carrots on the shelf. So I flagged down an employee, apologized for the trouble since everyone was trying to keep the shelves full in the leadup to Thanksgiving (this was about 10 p.m. on Tuesday, and Thanksgiving of course was Thursday) and asked the employee if they could check to see if there were any cases of Great Value carrots, and if not, could they tell me how many might be in stock elsewhere? The employee came back, said that according to their computerized inventory they were totally out of Great Value carrots at that store, but that there were 96 cans--a mere eight cases--at the nearest warehouse. I thanked the employee for all of his help, picked up another case of spinach in lieu of the canned carrots and headed for the checkout.

After loading my stuff in the car, I drove to the other 24-hour Walmart in town, with a nagging thought in my mind: What if the second store was out of carrots as well? How far was I willing to drive to find Great Value carrots? Wouldn't it be a lot less trouble if I just settled for the name-brand carrots that were in ample supply on the shelves, instead of insisting on the Great Value brand? Well, yes, but if the less-expensive generic brand is out of stock and I have to settle for the more-expensive name brand, I'd have to pay more if I really wanted carrots.

And THAT is another angle of food price inflation: Great Value carrots didn't get any more expensive. I just didn't get there in time to get the cheaper brand. And so it would cost me more because someone else beat me to those carrots.

But hey, there are 96 cans at the warehouse, right?

ONLY 96 cans of carrots in the local warehouse of the largest retailer in the world. How many other shoppers are looking for Great Value carrots at this moment? But it didn't really matter--because the carrots were at the warehouse and not on the store shelf. I was flat out of luck. So on to the next store I went.

I hit pauper's pay dirt at the second Walmart--I got the LAST CAN of Great Value carrots on the shelf! Seeing a manager nearby, I flagged her down and asked her if she could tell me if there were any cases of carrots in the stockroom that weren't yet on the shelf, and upon checking her computer she also told me that there were 96 cans of carrots at the nearest warehouse, but that I had apparently gotten the last can of Great Value carrots in the store.

Flash back to the mid-1980s when parents were literally fighting in the aisles of toy stores to get the last Cabbage Patch Kids right before Christmas. I felt that lucky. But suddenly I had a sense of vulnerability -- what if this was the last can of food in the entire store? I'd be at ground-zero for a mob of hungry, angry people. But you know that moment is coming at some point -- and someone will end up getting the very last can of something. And they'll be in the crosshairs of everyone else who feels entitled to THAT last can and who will do anything to get it. Some of you may have seen this video (http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=2de_1290808778) of a mob trampling people to get into a Target store at 4 a.m. on Black Friday. How bad will things be when mobs trample people to get into grocery stores at 4 a.m. because they didn't stock up when they should've because they blew all of their money on expensive toys?

At the third Walmart, again there were no Great Value carrots on the shelf. I flagged down the stocker at the end of the aisle and asked him if he could tell if there were any carrots waiting to be stocked. He walked over to a pallet that was about a 5-foot cube on each side, walked around it while looking at it up and down, then shook his head and apologized that he didn't have any carrots.

Stop and think about this scene for a moment: I'm average height, about 5-foot-9, and I'm taller than this pallet of canned goods that's being unloaded for this particular aisle for this day. That's not a lot of food! Statistics show that grocery stores rotate through their entire inventory in about three days--Google the phrase "nine meals away from anarchy"--but if there's a sudden surge in business, whether it's an unexpected weather event (remember "Snowmageddon" last winter?), a natural disaster (look at the looting that occurred after Hurricane Katrina) or a sudden economic panic that sends everyone running to stores before prices spike upward (like gas prices after Katrina), you aren't going to have stuff on the shelves very long at all, much less when you want those things at your fingertips at any time. Maybe this wasn't the only pallet of canned goods being unloaded for this particular aisle. But then again, I wasn't going to be the only shopper! And if the guy in front of me decided he was going to buy everything I wanted, it didn't matter what was going to come in tomorrow, or next week, or maybe not at all. I was just plain out of luck.

So then it was on to the fourth Walmart -- and again there was not a single can of Great Value carrots on the shelf nor in the stockroom, according to a store associate. So I picked up another case of canned spinach and, for variety, a case of fruit cocktail, paid for my items and set off for the fifth store. I forgot to ask the associate at the fourth store if there were any carrots in the warehouse (although this store was two counties away from the first store and may use a different warehouse).

I got to the fifth store, again finding no Great Value canned carrots on the shelf, so I flagged down a manager and asked if they could tell if there were any carrots back in the stockroom. He checked his computer and said that while they were out of the carrots at this store, another store in the next town (a store I had previously not known about) had 63 cans of carrots in stock -- but they were not a 24-hour store, didn't open until 7 a.m., and in fact had to close early the previous evening because a semi had hit a major power line and knocked out power at the store. The fact that there were 63 cans of carrots SOMEWHERE did me absolutely no good because there was no way to obtain them at that time.

The thing about "just-in-time" inventory is that it's just-in-time for the store--not for the customer. You have absolutely no guarantee that you'll be able to get what you want if you don't get it now, and even if you want to wait for something, how long will it be before an item is back on the shelves? At a couple of the Walmarts, I asked the manager if they knew how long it might be before they got more carrots in stock -- but they said they had no way to tell. Four stores had no Great Value canned carrots at all. I got the last can at another store. Another store had 63 cans, but they were out of reach until the next morning -- and who knows how many other people might be waiting for the store to open and rush to get that very product because every other store was out of it? It doesn't take a major leap of logic to realize that this will happen when items are in short supply -- and how impolite, unruly or even violent will people get when they clamor to get the last item out of your hands because you have it and they want it?

SCHEDULE MARATHON SHOPPING TRIPS

So as I noted above, there are nine 24-hour Walmarts along a 150-mile stretch of highway leading to my town. It could take anywhere from 8 to 12 hours to go to the other end of the route and then go to each store one by one, picking up all of the items I'm trying to stock up on, and finally unloading at my house at the end of the trip. But since we've already seen that just because there's a 24-hour Walmart that there's no guarantee something will be on the shelf, what kind of fool would I be just to give up and go home? I'd be a hungry fool! But let's do the math on best-case scenarios on what I COULD get, if everything (including Great Value canned carrots!) is on the shelf. Let's say that at each of the nine Walmarts, I'm able to get at least a case of carrots or other canned vegetables, a case of canned fruit, a case of canned salmon, 10 lbs. of dry beans and five 42-ounce containers of oatmeal (an average shopping trip for me, not counting refrigerated or frozen items). If I'm able to pick up at least this much of these items at each of the nine 24-hour Walmarts on my route, I'll arrive home with 108 cans of vegetables, 108 cans of fruit, 108 cans of salmon, 90 lbs. of dry beans and almost 119 lbs. of oatmeal. That's a pretty good start, and not bad for a day's work! How long will it take to get a single sandwich or bowl of soup -- if anything -- if I have to wait in lines at soup kitchens or FEMA centers if I'm foolish enough to keep waiting instead of stocking up now?

And I wonder how many preppers lose sight of the big picture: It's not how much food or water or ammo or anything else you have that's important. What matters is how long you and your family will be self-sufficient and not dependent upon the government or other cash- or resource-strapped entities when disaster strikes. Unless a disaster strikes my neighborhood in a manner that directly impacts my house or my family's lives, I don't plan to leave my house in search of resources in the event of a disaster. I will either make sure I have as close to everything I need before disaster strikes, or I and my family will find a substitute or do without. If you're not working on becoming self-sufficient, you're missing the whole reason you should be prepping. Not only do self-sufficient people ease the strain on scarce or nonexistent resources, but they are in a position to help others during those Schumer-hits-the-fan events. It doesn't take a lot of time or effort to stock up compared to the amount of time wasted in line waiting for help when you could be at home with your loved ones taking care of each other, or helping others. If you plan to wait on stocking up or otherwise becoming self-sufficient because everything looks fine right now, you could be the next disaster waiting to happen.

[justoneguy]

Funny, i was going to link to a quote about " 9 meals from anarchy ",
and the first site i looked at wa survivalprep.
what's on that page you ask?
it's nickelless' " just 24 poundsof carrots until vacation and pics of his preps "
any way here is a link about just in time deliveries.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... ble-system

carrot_case.jpg (183.67 KiB) Viewed 5757 times

[slickeast]

Having worked for wal.mart distribution for 5 years, all the stores are probably serviced by the same DC. Some items come in and shipped out the same day. Meat and produce more than anything else. I also have 15 years experience in the grocery store business. people wait to the last second to buy stuff. That is why the day before thanksgiving is the busiest day of the year (usually)

When there is a snow threat (SC) people go crazy stocking up. Hurricanes bring them out too. Snow might be 3-4 inches and last 2-3 days max. You might be stuck inside for 1 day just because road conditions are bad.

If people panic over what I consider nothing, what are they willing to do when a real disaster occurs.

[Devil Soundwave]

Nickless, you seem to REALLY like carrots!

I need to count my inventory, but I think I have somewhere in the region of 300 x 300gram cans of food, 20 kilos of assorted dried beans and about 30 kilos of white rice, plus 48 litres of bottled water.

Not sure I can fit much more in the flat...

Better than no preps though.

[Nickelless]

I started this same thread over at GIM--it's pretty much going viral over there, 62 replies in the thread in the past three days:

http://goldismoney2.com/showthread.php? ... -inflation

[rickygee]

OK, I'll level with you folks. I work at a Walmart* SuperCenter. You think if TSHTF I'm hanging around the store to wait on your your sorry butt? Hey, I'm outta there before you get there. You think Walmart* employees are so dedicated to serving the public that we're hanging around in a disaster scenario so we can point you to the camping supplies, potted meat and vienna sausages . Better think again. Get it now. Cuz we're locking down the store and going home.

[Nickelless]

Rickygee, is there a specific store policy on what circumstances would warrant locking the store and closing it? Granted, if nobody shows up to work because they're concerned for their families' well-being in the event of a local or regional disaster, economic or otherwise, that would make perfect sense.

[.02FYI]

I asked a large walmart store stocker employee. How long it would take for the store to empty if the trucks stop delivering? 2 days bare 3 days empty was the reply. So even if the employees want to come yet have no trucks resupplying they are empty in three days . Something to think about.

[rickygee]

Rickygee, is there a specific store policy on what circumstances would warrant locking the store and closing it? Granted, if nobody shows up to work because they're concerned for their families' well-being in the event of a local or regional disaster, economic or otherwise, that would make perfect sense.

I was just goofin' off with the lock down bit.

We had a pretty nasty ice storm two years ago, even on a 1/2 skeleton staff the store stayed open.

Don't really know about a lock down policy to be quite frank, but our store is one of the top 7 or 8 largest, by building size, in the US...we used to be number 2. We are open 24/7, 364 days a year. Employees are at work 24/7 just about 364.75 days per year. Closing the store is one major operation. In fact until two years ago third party security was required for closing. Mainly to watch the employees leave the building verify all public entrances, fire entrances, roof access trap doors, shipping and receiving bays, yada were secure. So no, the stores (24/7) would be open, but the point I was trying to make is most employees, if it's bad enough, are going to split. It's an hourly job, even for some managers!, it will be pandemonium. You DO NOT want to be there. The sheeple are terrible on a good day. I really don't want to be there when they go nuts...and they will.

A disturbing number of Walmart* shoppers, on a good day, feel they are entitled to rip open packages, destroy product, vandalise the store, fixtures and equipment, abuse employees, SHOPLIFT, can I repeat that, SHOPLIFT and more. Why??? Because they feel because Walmart* is the world'd largest retailer they have a RIGHT to pillage and plunder. Don't bother asking how many times I have heard "Walmart* can afford it". Yeah, but we're on profit sharing and I can't!!!

OK, rant over, GETCHER BUTT TO WALLYWORLD NOW,not later!

[rickygee]

Man am I on a roll or what? Regarding the ice storm I mentioned in my previous post, my hardware department was sold out of electric heaters, propane heaters, kerosene heaters, propane, kerosene, heater wicks, kerosene siphons (ONE OF THE MAJOR ASKED FOR ITEMS if you need one get it now) natural firewood, compressed firelogs, fire starters, long reach butane lighters yada. This was on day one.

This is the truth: We had a guy buy the last 10 propane torch kits at 14.95 just to get the propane bottles, which individually sell for 2.95.

Ice storm. Keep your head, snuggle up in a sleeping bag, be glad you're not on the road. This isn't even SHTF.

Don't wait. And for your sake remember, Walmart* is the first place the sheeple go...

[68Camaro]

Was searching through the non-recent topics looking for this, and found it.

The last two weeks I've redirected stocking up to core basics. I have defined that, for now, as beans and rice. Yes, just that, alone. So I now have enough beans and rice to give my my wife and I calories on that alone for a year. Now I do NOT want to be eating beans and rice for a year (thus my other stocks). But it seemed like this would be an excellent thing to do as a core program anyway. Just get 'er done. Easily and cheaply. It takes some of the pressure off of completing the food part of a one-year stock of supplies. It gives me trading supplies. And it gives me something basic for charity toward those inevitable people that have done nothing to prepare; especially some extended family that cannot easily afford to fully prep as they should.

However, the point of this post is this. It is really shocking how shallow the stocks are in the food stores. Even in the warehouse sized stores. For this one little project (for just one small family) I took half of the available 25-lb bags of Mahatma rice at my closest BJs. And I emptied the 2-pound size of pinto beans at the closest Aldis, and I took all the 20 pound backs of pinto beans at a total of THREE Super Wal-Marts (there were only eight of those 20-lb bags between the 3 stores). OK, now I've got mine. What is the rest of the population going to eat? Not much, I can tell you. OK, there are more than beans and rice at the stores, but they will get cleaned out in a couple of hours. I've seen the lines for hurricane prepping, and let me tell you, if you ain't got it now, you ain't going to have it period, come an emergency.

[Nickelless]

68Camaro, did you get weird looks when you came through the line with the rest of the store's inventory? I do most of my shopping at night (I work 3 p.m. to midnight), so I usually escape a lot of curious stares. The employees at Kroger and Walmart know me very well, and I've had the opportunity to chat with several of them over time about the need to stock up big-time at home. I usually start my side of the conversation, after they blurt out "Why do you need 25 pounds of frozen carrots??" by asking them about shipping delays, empty shelves after a weather scare, etc., and they usually say that when you look at it from that angle, it makes perfect sense! Of course, I always pay cash and try to spend less than $100 at a time, so it doesn't look too fishy. And I never fill out the information form whenever I get a new Kroger customer card, which I try to swap out for a new one every few months just to cover my tracks as a hoarder.

I typically find the best deals on cold cereal (my favorite is Honey Bunches of Oats, but I also really like granola) and canned veggies at Kroger and hot cereal (usually oatmeal) and frozen veggies at Walmart. Just FYI for your next shopping trip.

Speaking of which, I went to Kroger on my way home from work a little while ago because I'd noticed they were running a sale on various kinds of cereal...**sigh** Why is it they never seem to have any granola cereal left after I leave the store? Hey, at $2 for an 18-ounce box, of COURSE I bought the last 16 boxes!

My other consideration in buying out all the granola in the store tonight was that if (although I hope not) I am about to be laid up for a while with medical issues, I've got at least a couple months worth of cereal on hand that I don't have to bother cooking, as well as plenty of other canned goods to make very fast and easy meals.

[68Camaro]

68Camaro, did you get weird looks when you came through the line with the rest of the store's inventory?

Especially the multiple 20 pound bags of beans. "I love beans..." And while I got the rice at several different trips to BJs while I was planning this, the last trip I got eight 25 lb bags, and even at BJs where people buy in bulk that got the attention of the checker. "That's a lot of rice [raised eyebrow]". I just said, "yep, it is!"

I typically find the best deals on ...

Thanks for that info. I'm still learning the optimum places for certain things here. I'll check on those.

My other consideration in buying out all the granola in the store tonight was that if (although I hope not) I am about to be laid up for a while with medical issues, I've got at least a couple months worth of cereal on hand that I don't have to bother cooking, as well as plenty of other canned goods to make very fast and easy meals.

Another benefit of stocking up. Hang in there and let us know what's going on.

[Mossy]

and I've had the opportunity to chat with several of them over time about the need to stock up big-time at home.

You could avoid the "stocking up" part and point out other aspects. Large bags of something means less garbage, less pollution, and less fuel burned to move the extra weight around the world. Large bags are usually cheaper, saving money. Making a monthly purchase means a lot of work once, making many small purchases means you are constantly running back and forth to the store for stuff (other than fresh) and wandering around the aisles.

Not a problem here as many people live off the road system or are involved with commercial fishing and stock up, big time.

My other consideration in buying out all the granola in the store tonight was that if (although I hope not) I am about to be laid up for a while with medical issues, I've got at least a couple months worth of cereal on hand that I don't have to bother cooking, as well as plenty of other canned goods to make very fast and easy meals.

You are not supposed to eat much after appendix trouble.

[Nickelless]

Mossy, I'm not having trouble with my appendix. I'm having trouble with my table of contents.

Seriously, with regard to talking to grocery store employees, I'm not sure the issue of having less garbage would be as important or as relevant to them as having empty shelves both at work and at home. What good is having no garbage if you have no food either?

[Mossy]

Seriously, with regard to talking to grocery store employees, I'm not sure the issue of having less garbage would be as important or as relevant to them as having empty shelves both at work and at home. What good is having no garbage if you have no food either?

Depends on which one. I've run into some that were big into la-la stuff (usually working the cash register). The conservationist angle works a lot better for such twits than the preparedness angle ("How DARE you not trust the Government to take care of you..."), although they are sometimes found stocking shelves, breifly, they seldom have a work ethic.

The la-la's are sometimes found in the health food stores as well (and sometimes you can get good deals from those places).

[68Camaro]

You are not supposed to eat much after appendix trouble.

It's Derek/misteroman that's having the appendix trouble....

[Mossy]

Oops. Sorry.

[Rosco]

We just picked up 20 packs of foil pack tuna as its from Thailand an could be affected by the Nuclear radiation problems.
foil weighs less than cans an is with out the extra Oils of the canned.
Also another brick of 22's plus 50 rounds of 357.

[strikeaxe]

A very easy method to stopping most of those questions, is to have a cheap pin on laser printer name bagde with homeless mission of your choice, works like a charm to stop the annoying questions, as to why you need so much of any one item. Not recomended when buying ammunition

Axe

[Verbane]

Winter weather is just around the corner, thought I'd resurrect a classic thread.

I have a coworker who shops at Walmart 3-4 times a week so she can make dinner that night. I'm done trying to talk sense to her. She's one of those who runs to the store in a panic every time the weatherman says the word snow.

[slickeast]

I worked at a Walmart distribution center for several years. Once when we were servicing SAMS we got 3 days behind on shipping out orders.That meant your Monday delivery arrived Thursday. Walmart brought in guys from other centers to help and I worked 70+ hours a week for 2 months. I was never told to go home and some guys were sleeping in the meeting rooms. There was no event that triggered the problem other than being understaffed.

Another time we had a big snow (big for S.C.). I came in at 5 am and started loading trucks that were scheduled to leave at 3 and 4 PM the PREVIOUS day. It was after lunch before we had any trucks leave on time.

A little bit of panic mixed with a minor natural event can cause a very quick reduction in supplies being restocked.

[68Camaro]

Yeah - it's amazing how dependent the US (and much of the world now) has gotten on JIT shipping. The illustrations above are helpful to point that out. Thanks!

[Roadrunner]

Good posts, Nickelless (and others). Thanks for resurrecting this thread. Scary stuff...a good kick in the pants for *ahem* any of us who aren't prepared well enough yet.

A prepper friend of mine bought 50-100 lbs. of pasta in one order from Aldi when they had a sale on it. The cashier asked him what he was doing with all that pasta. He launched into a story about giving back to the community and donating food to food banks. And the story was truthful, because he did donate a box to the food bank. The rest was added to the food stockpile.