My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

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My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby CardsNCoins » Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:07 am

I apologize in advance for the long read, but these thoughts always go through my mind when I think about selling copper pennies, and I wanted to have them in a solid form to refer to so I can remember why it's not time to sell yet (for me anyway), and what better place than here at RC.

I will start by saying that probably a few times a year I crunch the numbers to see if selling my pennies is worth it, but I sort copper pennies to keep for the future. They may never be worth many multiples of their face like silver coinage, but it makes me feel like I'm in on the ground floor of something. I do keep my eyes open as to CTU pricing both here and on eBay to keep aware of the market, but I can't help but think that the guys I see selling CTUs in the mid to upper $130s are working pretty darn hard for minimal profit (which most here at RC know already).

I know there are a lot of Ryedale owners that acquire their pennies in bags. I, unfortunately, can only get boxes. I also know that there are people that run multiple Ryedales for their copper sorting endeavors, but I would say that a very large percentage (my guess is 90%+) of people that sort pennies with Ryedale equipment own only 1 machine. I'm certain that both of these things (bags and multiple Ryedales) would help to increase profits if one decides they are wanting to sell copper pennies instead of hoarding them. It would be great if the members that get bags and/or use multiple Ryedales would chime in and let us know how each has helped you grow your hoard/business.

At 20% copper a person would need to sort 20 boxes just to make 1 CTU.

Based on other member's posts I have seen here on RC, I believe I have a very high copper yield per box (29% for my 320 boxes sorted). Even with that high yield I have to run 14 $25 bank boxes of pennies through my Ryedale to accumulate one CTU of copper.

That's acquiring 14 boxes, cracking and feeding 14 boxes, and dumping 24,850 zincs from those 14 boxes.

Just the cracking and feeding alone of those 14 boxes, if done in a nonstop fashion, and just doing a zinc accept, would take about 2.5 to 3 hours. Now add in running the rejects from that 14 box zinc accept (which is mostly the coppers) through the a copper accept, and now we're probably at 3.5 hours. Then if you start to get anal about digging for all the wheats instead of just the one's you see pop out during the run, who knows how long the CTU recovery process will take. Remember, that's not even counting acquiring time and dumping time. In a best case pick up scenario of a weekly 14 box order (maybe 30 minutes from leaving your house to coming back home), and a 30 minute coin machine visit for dumping in one shot, we'll round up the whole process 5 hours, and that was best case scenarios in all facets of the process (and at a 29% copper yield).

So, if you're selling a CTU for even $140 shipped (a number that goes unsold a lot here on RC), after paying the U.S.P.S. fee for a medium flat rate box ($10.85 printed online or $11.35 at the post office) you're down to $129.15 (using the online postal price). Knock that down to a nice round $128 for incidentals (bags for shipping the pennies, gas the to PO, etc...) and then take off the $100 outlay for the face value of the pennies being sold, and your profit is right around $28. That means you made $2 profit for each of the 14 boxes picked up. If we adjust the hours worked to a more believable 7 (still probably quick for a 1 Ryedale owner), it works out to $4 an hour, and that's with a 29% copper yield and getting $140 for your CTU.

No matter how I slice it I always come to the same conclusion; the smart play (for me anyway) with 1 Ryedale and acquiring boxes only, is to sort and hold.

If you made it this far go reward yourself with an adult beverage. :lol:

Nick
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby NHsorter » Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:38 am

Yeah! I earned a beer already and it's only 8:30a.m. :)

I agree with you. I am on a sort-and-hold regimen. I posted up a 2x face craigslist ad and so far no takers. That is fine with me, I'll hold until I can get at least 2X. If I never do, then I guess my kids are just gonna have a lot of pennies to deal with when I am done here. Most recently I got a $140 local FTF offer through CL, and I offered to do 1 "dirty" CTU to them for $140 but they did not reply. Just sick of looking at the uglies.

Sometimes I think of all of the more profitable activities that I could be doing instead of sorting. Then I could just use the cash to buy PMs or CTUs and end up accumulating faster that way. But I just like sorting, and have yet to find an equally fun/profitable hobby. Plus the chance at finding something rare or special is a big lure. When I found a 1914D, I knew that I was hooked for good. This hobby is kinda like playing the lottery, but without spending all your money. I mean look at what HCBTT just pulled in this week!

Sort on friends.
“They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety” Benjamin Franklin
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby TXBullion » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:31 am

Different strokes different folks :wave:
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby CardsNCoins » Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:38 am

TXBullion wrote:Different strokes different folks :wave:


Which is why I wrote several times that this is what was best for me.
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby Madwest » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:07 am

My mindset has always been about hoarding for speculation, not flipping for quick profit.

I'm working towards my 2nd ton and my plan is to go until it feels like enough. I might stop at $5k face, maybe at 2 ton, maybe 3 ton, maybe at $10k face, maybe at ...? I won't know until I get there.

Once my hoard is the right size, I might consider sorting to sell. Time will tell.
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby Rodebaugh » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:15 am

I went trhough the post twice......do I get two adult beverages?

BTW, I like the post Nick and I agree with your thoughts 100%.
This space for rent. :)
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby henrysmedford » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:21 am

Rodebaugh wrote:I went trhough the post twice......do I get two adult beverages?

BTW, I like the post Nick and I agree with your thoughts 100%.

+1 And to help you pick your beer see http://www.realcent.org/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8525
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby 68Camaro » Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:36 am

Did that same math myself two years ago when I started, with same conclusion, and I let it drive my approach over time.

So there is no money to be made at low volume levels, at least until price comes back to at least a solid $160+ per CTU (it really needs to be $180+ for us low volume people), so I sort and hold, which was my personal objective anyway. I'm setup now to sort at low levels ($100-200 per weeks) more or less in the background of my life, which helps the per hour return. I rip open the coins while drinking my coffee and watching TV, so I'm multi-tasking there and very quick at it to boot. I dump and pickup while I'm out and about on other errands. And I pop the unprocessed cents into the Ryedale and run them $20-$40 at a shot (usually) while doing other things - I just have to stay near enough to catch a jam before they run all over the place, but I know the machine well enough that that pretty much only happens now with a bent coin, a UK penny, or a glob of goo stuck to a cent. (If I ran them through a scancoin first that would elminate those, but at the rate I'm running it's not worth that (yet).)

I have gotten more picky about my accepts over time and for the past year+ have been segregating all dirty copper (even just slightly dirty stuff that most people wouldn't think twice about) off to the side. I am willing to sell the dirty stuff en masse, at discount, to people that are willing to pickup (no shipping) and I supposedly have one deal done for about 5 CTUs of dirty copper in January, to be picked up locally. I'll make a modest amount of money on that stuff and I still get to keep my clean copper.

So the largest time sucker for me is manually sorting the copper results for clean coin (and wheats/canadian). I've decided that that is worth it to me to do this - to have as a result a premium bag of clean, but not "cleaned", coin that might still have some numismatic attraction in the future.

There are small amounts of adder income that can be made by selling the resulting wheats and canadians. And the odd-ball dimes that are sometimes found in CWR and foreign coin coming off the counters are interesting and also help, but aren't enough to do more than offset a few gallons of gas.

But, let's face it, for 98% of us this is "just" a hobby with a lot of upside and near zero downside. Even a couple of tons of copper aren't going to form a significant portion of anyone's portfolio.
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby My2Cents » Mon Dec 17, 2012 3:20 pm

Well said. I agree with you completely.
The old saying "It's worth what it's worth" applies here. I've bought many CTUs over the years for the simple fact that it's cheaper to just buy them at the $135 or so price that to invest my time into doing it. But then again, I've already sorted all the copper cents available here in Okinawa and there's nothing left for me to go through.
Buying them from here is better than Ebay (of course), so I snag a few CTUs when I feel like my hoard back home needs some new friends. But if selling them at $135 makes sense for the seller, then it makes sense to me. Maybe they sort for the pure enjoyment of it, and I can understand and respect that. It's less about the money, and more about having something to do. I know that when I was sorting over here, I had to re-roll each and every zinc cent into new paper rolls (and even tape the ends). At $600/week, I spent many hours at the kitchen table just to roll those damn things up. But I enjoyed it, so the time I spent on that was irrelevant. I know that I'd still be doing it if there were more available.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - Zero" Voltaire
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby thripp » Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:55 am

I agree that it's not really worthwhile to sort pennies for profit... I am not sure why they are selling for 135-140 shipped when I have no trouble getting 150+ shipped. But even then it's too much work, and dumping the zincs is getting harder and harder.

I can only get rolled coin, but I can actually unwrap 15 boxes an hour if they are the Brinks plastic rolls... probably half that if they are paper rolls. It gets easier with experience.

At this point, if you have enough money you are still way better off sorting halves by hand than cents with a Ryedale.
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby Numis Pam » Tue Dec 18, 2012 1:07 am

Great thread! I too will have to hold for at least 2x before I would sell any ctu's... just makes 'cents' for me... ha :angel:
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby shinnosuke » Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:02 am

I sort so my widow will have a lot of hauling to the bank to do after she pounds me, mercifully, into the ground. Just kidding. I sort because I have a sense of accomplishment for putting Gresham's Law into practice. I sort because it's doing something that the average Schmoe is unwilling to do. I sort because it teaches my kids something about the use of time. I sort, therefore I am. (with apologies to Descartes and his: Cogito ergo sum.)

This thread is just another fine example of the combined wisdom at realcent. It was my lucky day to somehow Google my way into this corner of the web. Brethren & sisters, sort on! And make my drink a lemonade, por favor.
When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them... (Thomas Jefferson)
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby Engineer » Tue Dec 18, 2012 2:28 am

I sort cents more to find the fun stuff (and for something to do) than as an investment. The zincs go through coin star for my toys on Amazon, and the coppers sit in the basement...but I wouldn't mind selling them at $130ish for a local deal of multiple CTUs. It would take quite a bit more to convince me to package them up and haul them off to the PO.

Time-wise, I figure a half hour per bag and 6 bags per CTU for a double sort to catch the early wheats. Dumping and pickups probably double that. Running all the numbers, I could make $5/hr if they sold for $130...not counting gas, electricity, supplies, machine depreciation, etc. That's not enough to make it a profitable endeavor, but watching pre-depression coins pop out of the Ryedale always brings a smile to my face.
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby TheJonasCollegeFund » Tue Dec 18, 2012 9:04 am

I must be in the minority. I don't see "profit" as the ultimate goal. I "profit" the most this hobbie's theraputic qualities. And, of course, the treasure hunt for that rare $$$ coin. Very few of us can run this hobby like a business. I have had no issues with flipping $4000+ face over the last 2 years. It was fun and I have no regrets. Moving these coppers let me buy more and flip more. Wheats, indian heads, canadians, foreign stuff, and some errors all turned into more capital for more therapy.

No regrets or "profit envy"!

Just fun!
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby m83striker » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:10 am

My true enjoyment comes from sorting through the copper with my 9 year old son. We get out the "flip" boards and look for Canadians and Wheats. We have mason jars for separating the Canadians by Kings, Rock Doves and regular. Somewhere in his room he stashes an almost full mason jar of Kings since they are his favorite, lol. I haven't sold any CTU's, but if I did it would be to get more from the bank and look for the special finds. Hopefully someday I'll have a couple more CTU's of Canadian!!!
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Re: My (long) thoughts on the CTU and it's pricing

Postby SilverDragon72 » Thu Dec 20, 2012 7:24 pm

I like to sort them....and never let them go! I don't keep the zincs. Nice to come across Wheats and other odd coins while searching! ;)
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