$$ Crunching The Numbers $$

[timmus0382]

Ok so I have been keeping track the last couple weeks and here is what I have come up with.

Basis of study was to determine a year’s profit from sorting 10 string boxes per week.

The ten string boxes per week were sorted with a Ryedale. I averaged 2 hours to open all the rolls and sort the pennies through the machine. So the time invested was 2 hours per week. I am not counting time to pick up and drop off because I can do that on my drive to and from work and I have to drive by the bank anyway.

I averaged 32.4 % cu which is roughly 8100 cu's per week.

at 154 cu's per pound that’s 52.5 lbs cu/wk

times 52 weeks that’s 2735 lbs/year

2735 lbs x 154/lb = $4211. So the total investment for the year sitting in cu pennies is $4211

At any time if I choose to sell the pennies after 1 year here are my profits based on the selling price.

If I sell 2735 lbs. @ $2 per lb. I would receive $5470 now minus my investment of $4211 and I come out with a profit of $1259 for 104 hours of work. That works out to be $12.10 per hour

If I sell 2735 lbs. @ $3 per lb. I would receive $8205 now minus my investment of $4211 and I come out with a profit of $3994 for 104 hours of work. That works out to be $38.40 per hour

If I sell 2735 lbs. @ $4 per lb. I would receive $10940 now minus my investment of $4211 and I come out with a profit of $6729 for 104 hours of work. That works out to be $64.70 per hour

Now I know we are talking %95 cu so the numbers will be a little smaller but I just wanted to work with even numbers. I have concluded that for just a little effort and about 100 hours of work per year you can make a handsome profit if you wait to sell at the right price. Now just think of how the profits could go if you can do 20 string boxes per week or even 30!

If you can find a local buyer and hand deliver the large quantity at the end of the year you don’t have to worry about shipping costs and wasting time liquidating small amounts. This will greatly increase your profits.

Just imagine how much profit there is to be had if you can stack for a couple years and sell at $4 plus per lb. some day

If you take into consideration operating costs I believe it is not worth selling until you can get at least $2.50 per lb. My plan is to hoard and hoard some more for years to come or at least until I find a buyer that will pay $4 per lb.

[inflationhawk]

I'd hold for as long as you can. I'm doing this as a hobby mostly, but like the idea that I'm making a risk free return on the money I invest. I'm happy stacking for now. I'd love to able to sell each $25 box for $200 each some day...maybe 15 or 20 years from now. Copper would need to about triple in value from here.

[John_doe]

I'd hold for as long as you can. I'm doing this as a hobby mostly, but like the idea that I'm making a risk free return on the money I invest. I'm happy stacking for now. I'd love to able to sell each $25 box for $200 each some day...maybe 15 or 20 years from now. Copper would need to about triple in value from here.

With china stockpiling, and silver being depleted you might get that wish.

[Economist]

Hawk,

If your $25 FV copper goes to $200 in terms of FRN in 20 years, that's a what, about 11% compounded annual growth rate. I used a calculator:

http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/di ... ulator.htm

In other words, an 11% inflation rate basically wipes out your "investment." Now how much of an inflation hawk are you?

[inflationhawk]

Enough of a hawk to know I have no control over the run away spending that will drive inflation rates. Also, the inflation rate of metals is NOT the same as the overall inflation rate as measured by the CPI. A silver dime in 1965 was worth 7 cents; it's now worth nearly 3 dollars. Based on the CPI, that 7 cents in 1965 inflated to 49 cents in today's dollar. Source: http://myinflationrate.com/history_of_the_consumer_price_index.php

Inflation in metals fluctuates wildly over time. I suspect that we'll see $10-$12+ per pound of copper in the next 20 years at some point. I also suspect that after 20 years, there will be a time that copper will be less than $5.

[highroller4321]

You need to factor in the cost of the Ryedale, cost of dri slide, time spend unloading and loading the pennies from your car, time spent dumping the coins, time spent picking up the coins, ect ect

[timmus0382]

You need to factor in the cost of the Ryedale, cost of dri slide, time spend unloading and loading the pennies from your car, time spent dumping the coins, time spent picking up the coins, ect ect

I don't count the time loading and unloading because I have to go to the bank anyway.

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

Must... Get... Faster...

[HPMBTT]

Hmmm....good analysis. BUT, highroller is right. There's a lot more that goes into this than just what you have stated. Still, that's a great first effort/start on your part. At least your brain is thinking and, like many of us here on RC, you are generally headed in the right direction. You need to fine tune your numbers a little more, plus factor in all of the other items, such as what highroller said. Then take a closer look at inflation as well. Even hoarding any and all commodities (ie silver/copper/gold) does cost you at least a slight amount of inflation per year. In general, you can't win 100% at this. However, I still believe that stashing hard assets (PM's) is still the way to go long-term, given the current crisis/situation, and look at it as the lesser of two (or three/four) evils.

Also, how can you do TEN string boxes in two hours?? I did $127.83 worth last night (about 5 boxes worth) and it took me two hours. Granted, I go through and do a 30-second check for BUs per six rolls and then add to the unsorted pile; also, I do a pre-sort penny run with my coin counter and by eyecheck so as to remove any nasty/bad coins, so that they don't hurt the Ryedale as much. So are you doing any searching at all (ie Wheats/Indians/BU 60s coins, foreign/CDN etc) as you add to your pile? (these will increase your assets quicker than just Cu pennies). Or do you just cut open the rolls and immediately Ryedale sort right away? Do you have just one Ryedale? And does that include double Ryedale sorting your Cu pennies, bagging everything AND putting everything away when you're done? Be sure to also factor in the throw-away latex/vinyl gloves cost too ($9/box), if you wear those (I know I do, as the amount of dirt/germs is very high). Please share with us some more details, as I'm sure there are additional factors that we are not aware of. I'm not trying to be negative or pessimistic about your post (it was a good starter post)..I'm just trying to be realistic.

[Mossy]

Extra minutes are like pennies. They add up. But, if those extra minutes are otherwise dead time, at least they are being put to use.

[timmus0382]

I have a system of opening and getting them into containers. It only takes me about 30 mins to open the 10 boxes I can post a 30 min video but that might be boring. I am just focused and work fast and to tell you the truth my hands and back are really sore by the time I'm done. I've also modified my catcher to speed up the process. Plus I only run them once and only pick out wheats that stand out.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

That is a real good start, Timmus 0382. I agree with you it is best to wait a long time for the price in copper to rise. I have some old copper wheaties stashed away for so long, I forgot exactly where I stashed them! I hope they are not covered in vertigris now.

Keep up the good work! The longer you hold 'em, the more valuable they will become.