Copper in HyperInflation,vs Gold/Silver,Weimar 1923 Cu Crash

[slara512]

First Time posting as I am new here, thanks for including me.

Question for you all.

What are your expectations of the price behavior or barter-ability of copper vs gold and silver in times of crisis?

I would think that copper would not be as good as gold/silver, but better than paper.
in the 2008 deflation scare, copper fell dramatically but then rebounded quickly. Mostly because of risk assets crash and China vs the US Dollar Safety.
What bothers me most is the attached Weimar Germany years (1919-1923) copper price chart in hyperinflation. The 1923 crash confuses me most.

If financial crisis occurs where hyper-inflation (not deflation) occurs, whats would be the most probable performance of copper here in the US. Would Copper pennies be an acceptable means of trading for small denomination along with Silver?

charts available from "Now and futures": http://www.nowandfutures.com/weimar.html

Your thoughts are very welcome.

[Thogey]

In 1923 Germany demonitized Marks and initiated Rentenmarks and Reichsmarks.

[slara512]

So would you say or do you think Copper kept up its value in the conversion? and what would you expect here in the US of A?

[Thogey]

A german, in the summer of 1923, was better off with copper than 500 mark, 1.67g, aluminum coins.

1 mark in 1924 was .0804 ASW of silver. 1 reichpfenning was 2 grams of bronze.

So I would guess those that held copper instead of pre '23 marks were glad they did.

[Thogey]

Oh....
And welcome to Realcent!

[slara512]

Just found this 100 year chart of copper prices Adjusted for inflation

IN US currency, Copper was relatively flat during the Weimar Germany crisis. Since the us was pegged to gold, we know copper was relatively flat against gold/dollars during that period.

The other observation from this chart is that in the mid 60s, Copper increased 50 to 75 percent as the USD moved from silver backing.

[slara512]

Oh....
And welcome to Realcent!

Thanks Thogey for the welcome. from reading posts for off and on for a while, I know this group is my type of people.

[Thogey]

You see that chart is different than the German one. I don't know, but did the US have inflation during the early spike, or was that because of WWI.

[slara512]

the first spike does match the WW1 years. the later drops also match up with the commodity prices rise and drop of the roaring 20s because of increased demand/productivity and then the later deflation of the depression.

[Thogey]

The USA chart seem like it's supply and demand driven and reflects the true value of copper. Our money was backed by metal for many or those years.

The German chart seem to be driven by currency manipulation.

I hope some more informed Realcenters will pipe in.

[slara512]

Copper prices in dollars went from under 0.30 to 1.40+ when the US removed the silver standard. I'm most interested in this period dollar weakness than depression which was dollar positive due to deflation. In deflation, US dollars could do well as cash/money is sought after to pay debts. The inflation of the 70s is the best example to show inflation in the US.

Copper moved almost 500% because of the US Dollar weakness and inflation.
In the inflation adjusted charts, copper has help up but has been flat over a hundred years, which makes sense in light of supply and industrial use, etc.

[Thogey]

Copper prices in dollars went from under 0.30 to 1.40+ when the US removed the silver standard. I'm most interested in this period dollar weakness than depression which was dollar positive due to deflation. In deflation, US dollars could do well as cash/money is sought after to pay debts. The inflation of the 70s is the best example to show inflation in the US.

Copper moved almost 500% because of the US Dollar weakness and inflation.
In the inflation adjusted charts, copper has help up but has been flat over a hundred years, which makes sense in light of supply and industrial use, etc.

I think you answered your own question.

Your charts are enlightening, thank you.

[Rodebaugh]

good read.

Welcome to RC, Head over to the member introductions topic thread and tell us a little about yourself.

viewforum.php?f=49

[slara512]

good read.

Welcome to RC, Head over to the member introductions topic thread and tell us a little about yourself.

viewforum.php?f=49

good idea Rodebaugh.

just did on your advice. viewtopic.php?f=49&t=10185