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The copper melt value of 95% pennies is hovering around 2x face. Prices I read here at RealCent range from 1.2x face up to 1.6x face. That is considerably less than the melt value. I don't understand why penny experts are selling their valuable copper at such low prices. Well, okay, maybe I really do. We all have to eat and pay bills. But, does anyone here really have to sell their pennies at such low prices? So, here is the question I have:

If the long term trend of copper is up, up and away... Why are you guys not holding out for higher prices?

Main reason I would think is to make a small profit and re-invest by buying more pennies to sort at the bank at face value.
The overall amt of copper in storage then does not go down when some is sold, it goes up by the profit made on selling some.

Second reason maybe for the bigger CU penny sellers, is that they are trying to "build" a market. The more people that are
exposed to and become aware that copper maybe has some value, the bigger the potential future customer base would become.
They would be looking for the people who want to own some copper, but who do not want to go thru the time and trouble to sort.

I think you already know. But here you go anyway.

If someone sells for 1.5 shipped.
Subtract out the shipping.
Now it's at 1.38

After the first run you have made 38% on investment, or in this case $38 (You can argue if this is worth your time or not but everyone has their idea of "worth it")

Reinvest that money back into your pennies that you are buying at face value.
You are now sitting at $138 dollars in pennies
You sell off $100 as a another 67.8lbs of copper.
You are now sitting on 176.

You get the idea right? And after the third time you would actually be able to sell off two lots.
It would look a little something like this

All dollar values are displaying the amount of copper you have in $'s as apposed to pounds.

1st $138
2nd $176
3rd $214
4th $290
5th $366
6th $480
7th $632
8th $860
9th $1,164
10th $1,582


So after 10 time of flipping, and reinvesting your copper. You now have $1,582.
The amount of time it would take to do this is completely based on your penny supply, processing speed, and ability to find buyers.
But this is why people are willing in some cases to sell their copper at a discount. It will all change when there are no longer any pre-82s in circulation.

And as far as large sellers gow, I agree with smallchange. Its to help develop the market.

Great post Alex - I had never considered this before.

AlexTG wrote:I think you already know. But here you go anyway.

If someone sells for 1.5 shipped.
Subtract out the shipping.
Now it's at 1.38

After the first run you have made 38% on investment, or in this case $38 (You can argue if this is worth your time or not but everyone has their idea of "worth it")

Reinvest that money back into your pennies that you are buying at face value.
You are now sitting at $138 dollars in pennies
You sell off $100 as a another 67.8lbs of copper.
You are now sitting on 176.

You get the idea right? And after the third time you would actually be able to sell off two lots.
It would look a little something like this

All dollar values are displaying the amount of copper you have in $'s as apposed to pounds.

1st $138
2nd $176
3rd $214
4th $290
5th $366
6th $480
7th $632
8th $860
9th $1,164
10th $1,582


So after 10 time of flipping, and reinvesting your copper. You now have $1,582.
The amount of time it would take to do this is completely based on your penny supply, processing speed, and ability to find buyers.
But this is why people are willing in some cases to sell their copper at a discount. It will all change when there are no longer any pre-82s in circulation.

And as far as large sellers gow, I agree with smallchange. Its to help develop the market.

Alex,

Shipping is not your only expense.


If you have 1 ryedale and sort $400 and get 25% copper return. Assuming you have only a few jams thats 2.5 hrs worth of sorting time. Assuming your bank is close and you don't have to wait you have 10 mins pick up time and when returning them using a 4000/min coin counter you have 8 mins counting and 7 mins of waiting for them to change bags. Add in 15 mins worth of driving. Add in 10 mins worth of packaging. Add in $2 worth of tape and $11 to ship. Add 10 mins round trip to the post office.

Machine costs. Ryedale is good for at least 5 million coins. 40000/5000000 = .008% of the machine use. .008 X $500 (cost of new machine) =$4


Sell for 1.5 times shipped.

Sold $150
-$100 FV
=$50
-$2 tape
=$48
-$11 shipping
=$37
-$4 machine costs
=$33

Not factoring in the cost of electricity or the cost to use your car/truck/van or anything else.....


Profit of $33 for 3.5 hrs of work. You made $9.40 an hr and had a profit margin of 8.02% on your investment of $400.




Sell for 1.3 times shipped.

Sold $130
-$100 FV
=$30
-$2 tape
=$28
-$11 shipping
=$17
-$4 machine costs
=$13

Not factoring in the cost of electricity or the cost to use your car/truck/van or anything else.....


Profit of $13 for 3.5 hrs of work. You made $3.71 an hr and had a profit margin of 3.25% on your investment of $400.




Yes, this will go up if you sort more than $400 at once but unless your sorting a lot and cutting down on your driving timw its really not gonna be that profitable to sell for 1.3x shipped.

This is why I don't get how or why people sell for so little...

highroller4321 wrote:

AlexTG wrote:I think you already know. But here you go anyway.

If someone sells for 1.5 shipped.
Subtract out the shipping.
Now it's at 1.38

After the first run you have made 38% on investment, or in this case $38 (You can argue if this is worth your time or not but everyone has their idea of "worth it")

Reinvest that money back into your pennies that you are buying at face value.
You are now sitting at $138 dollars in pennies
You sell off $100 as a another 67.8lbs of copper.
You are now sitting on 176.

You get the idea right? And after the third time you would actually be able to sell off two lots.
It would look a little something like this

All dollar values are displaying the amount of copper you have in $'s as apposed to pounds.

1st $138
2nd $176
3rd $214
4th $290
5th $366
6th $480
7th $632
8th $860
9th $1,164
10th $1,582


So after 10 time of flipping, and reinvesting your copper. You now have $1,582.
The amount of time it would take to do this is completely based on your penny supply, processing speed, and ability to find buyers.
But this is why people are willing in some cases to sell their copper at a discount. It will all change when there are no longer any pre-82s in circulation.

And as far as large sellers gow, I agree with smallchange. Its to help develop the market.

Alex,

Shipping is not your only expense.


If you have 1 ryedale and sort $400 and get 25% copper return. Assuming you have only a few jams thats 2.5 hrs worth of sorting time. Assuming your bank is close and you don't have to wait you have 10 mins pick up time and when returning them using a 4000/min coin counter you have 8 mins counting and 7 mins of waiting for them to change bags. Add in 15 mins worth of driving. Add in 10 mins worth of packaging. Add in $2 worth of tape and $11 to ship. Add 10 mins round trip to the post office.

Machine costs. Ryedale is good for at least 5 million coins. 40000/5000000 = .008% of the machine use. .008 X $500 (cost of new machine) =$4


Sell for 1.5 times shipped.

Sold $150
-$100 FV
=$50
-$2 tape
=$48
-$11 shipping
=$37
-$4 machine costs
=$33

Not factoring in the cost of electricity or the cost to use your car/truck/van or anything else.....


Profit of $33 for 3.5 hrs of work. You made $9.40 an hr and had a profit margin of 8.02% on your investment of $400.




Sell for 1.3 times shipped.

Sold $130
-$100 FV
=$30
-$2 tape
=$28
-$11 shipping
=$17
-$4 machine costs
=$13

Not factoring in the cost of electricity or the cost to use your car/truck/van or anything else.....


Profit of $13 for 3.5 hrs of work. You made $3.71 an hr and had a profit margin of 3.25% on your investment of $400.




Yes, this will go up if you sort more than $400 at once but unless your sorting a lot and cutting down on your driving timw its really not gonna be that profitable to sell for 1.3x shipped.

This is why I don't get how or why people sell for so little...

Nice post. I sort using the handfed FrankenSorter, so It usually takes me around 8 hrs to sort $400. I usually sell around 2 boxes a week for $150-$170 shipped. Not a whole lot of money for me, but I work at a gas station, and make anywhere from $150-$200 a week there. So $80-$100 a week extra is great. I usually just set my laptop up and watch documentaries, and listen to the radio while I sort so that makes it seem a little more profitable.

$9.40 an hour is more than I make ATM. That will go up when I finish college, but a 8% return that is so easy to compound is great IMO.

I agree, I have no idea why anyone would sell for 1.3, but at 1.5. I find viable.

This is why I said you can argue if it is worth it, and that it depends on your supply, sort, and buyers.

The compounding put still stands though. When I get home from work I will give a more thorough breakdown.

where are the people selling at 1.2 or 1.3? Haven't seen them in a while. Great explanation too Adam

I think I just sold a lot not to long ago for 1.3, maybe 1.4. I needed for something else. In this case it was silver. I just l looked at it differantly I guess.

I saw it as a small amount of effort to place cash into a savings area for 2-3 months, and when I found the deal I wanted, had more in interest than any bank would have paid, by far. I had my intial 100.00 plus 20%.

That made it hurt less than thinking I wasn't maximizing profit or selling below "fair market value".

Either way, you just can't lose with copper cents. [:D}

Kurr wrote:I think I just sold a lot not to long ago for 1.3, maybe 1.4. I needed for something else. In this case it was silver. I just l looked at it differantly I guess.

I saw it as a small amount of effort to place cash into a savings area for 2-3 months, and when I found the deal I wanted, had more in interest than any bank would have paid, by far. I had my intial 100.00 plus 20%.

That made it hurt less than thinking I wasn't maximizing profit or selling below "fair market value".

Either way, you just can't lose with copper cents. [:D}

That's the beauty of PM's & coin investing. It does pay better than anything you could get at a bank right now.

If I pulled a 50% gross profit at my business... that would be a cause for celebration!! But, somehow, it doesn't add up for me here. Why? I dunno, maybe it's my belief in the longer term fundamentals. Right now, I don't have that much cash tied up in Cu cents. To sell now at 1.5x face what little I have hoarded would seem like a loss. Too much time tied up in it.

Maybe it is my belief in the fundamentals of long term hoarding of Cu is what is really out of whack. I have sat on some Ag for almost half a century, now it is finally starting to pay off big. I don't have another half a century to wait for Cu to do the same.

StateofMind (SOM) posted a thread called something like: "I am going to open up a can of worms here..." on the old RealCent forum. SOM's position was Cu hoarding was a waste of time. At that time I totally disagreed with him. Now, I am not so sure.

I get the ideal of flipping the Cu to culminate profit, but, if everyone did that it would flood the market and depress the price.

Thanks to everyone who resonded! It would be nice if some more "old timers" chimed in. I would like to hear from them, too.

I think its a great time to buy Cu. Sorting for a profit is not worth it for me to sell. I sort just so I have something to relate to you guys about Im banking on the fact that Cu will be at least 4 to 5 cents (Market Value within the next five years) If you double your money within 5 years, you are doing 20% a year (actually I think its less because of compounding or something but I dont feel like figuring it out). In that case, I believe its worth it to hold rather than sell for a profit. Some people do it as a hobby and dont seek a return on their time as they do it out of the love of the game. I bought my first lot on ebay for 1.7 from PennyBullion. When I discovered realcent and found sellers at 1.3 shipped, I was shocked. I thought man, what a lot of work for little moneteray pay off. I think its fun to see the Ryedale spitting some left and some right. Or the tellers, sir are you aware how much $600 in pennies is? But to Buy, Dump, Package, and Ship, I have a lot of respect for the guys that sell. Lol. I think the real payoff will be in holding the Cu. But at the same time, I am very grateful for the sellers of their Cu at lower prices. I know it can be hard to keep a lot of $$ tied up in Cu and throw in Ag, and some Nicks so holding may be right for some and selling may be right for others

highroller4321 wrote:

AlexTG wrote:I think you already know. But here you go anyway.

Profit of $13 for 3.5 hrs of work. You made $3.71 an hr and had a profit margin of 3.25% on your investment of $400.




Yes, this will go up if you sort more than $400 at once but unless your sorting a lot and cutting down on your driving timw its really not gonna be that profitable to sell for 1.3x shipped.

This is why I don't get how or why people sell for so little...

Thanks, Highroller!

I visited your website. Wow. Nice.

You have a lot more experience at Cu cents than me and your breakdown of the math is great.

Once the melt ban is lifted... do you anticipate a glut of copper pennies hitting the market?

Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay wrote:

highroller4321 wrote:

AlexTG wrote:I think you already know. But here you go anyway.

Profit of $13 for 3.5 hrs of work. You made $3.71 an hr and had a profit margin of 3.25% on your investment of $400.




Yes, this will go up if you sort more than $400 at once but unless your sorting a lot and cutting down on your driving timw its really not gonna be that profitable to sell for 1.3x shipped.

This is why I don't get how or why people sell for so little...

Thanks, Highroller!

I visited your website. Wow. Nice.

You have a lot more experience at Cu cents than me and your breakdown of the math is great.

Once the melt ban is lifted... do you anticipate a glut of copper pennies hitting the market?

Thank you.

When the melt ban is lifted I see 95% of the pennies going to the melter. Most people don't have the space to have a storage option and also most people think it short term profits rather than long term gains.

I have mentally settled on the concept that it may be as long as ten years before you could hit a "home run" (multiplied your money 4 times) with Cu pennies. Now that is long term.

I anticipate a glut just like you do. You will only really make money after the glut is over.

Let's say that you think that you can sell Cu pennies at 4x face.

And let's say that you can get all the Cu for face value.

If you think it will take 10 years to get from face to 4x face, you need the values of the pennies to double and then double again.

Using the 'Rule of 72' as a guide, that means it will take 5 years to double (and another 5 years to double again) so you're looking at a FOURTEEN POINT FOUR percent return on investment.

Heck, thinking that it will hit 4x in 15 years still puts it around 10 percent.

What's that percentage rate that you're getting from the bank on your money?

Mooski wrote:Let's say that you think that you can sell Cu pennies at 4x face.

And let's say that you can get all the Cu for face value.

If you think it will take 10 years to get from face to 4x face, you need the values of the pennies to double and then double again.

Using the 'Rule of 72' as a guide, that means it will take 5 years to double (and another 5 years to double again) so you're looking at a FOURTEEN POINT FOUR percent return on investment.

Heck, thinking that it will hit 4x in 15 years still puts it around 10 percent.

What's that percentage rate that you're getting from the bank on your money?

That makes sense, but also there is some risk involved with penny bullion Vs. a savings account. But if worse comes to worse you can always cash them back in at the bank! I just cashed in $550 worth of savings bonds that I just now found earlier this week. Took somewhere around 15 years to double for $25 to $50. That's really sad, I'm taking that $550 and using it to further my sorting bank roll. If you figure I sell $200 FV a week, then in around 5.5 weeks I will have doubled it. But more like 6.5 - 7 weeks if you figure in cost. I'd rather sort, and make a few bucks, then do anything else that I enjoy that costs me money instead of making me money!

As Sly & The Family Stone once put it: "Different strokes for different folks!"

Please, everyone keep sorting your Cu pennies. Do not change what you are doing on account of me.

For me, Cu is not as good an investment as Ag. Try storing your Cu in a safety deposit box! I don't have the space to store tons of copper pennies, nor do I own a forklift to move them around. Most of all, I do not wish to invest the time and space for the long haul in Cu. In 2008, I could have made a killing when Cu dropped by driving around town and buying up all the Cu scrap at the then depressed price... I just didn't have the space to store it and wait for it to go back up to the price it is at today.

In every market there are those who will sell at a deep discount. It's the "fast nickel is better than a slow dime" syndrome. It is the same in Cu pennies. Once Mr. Market learns you will sell on the cheap.... he will just wait you out for your next discount. Mr. Market will then deplete the reserves of the discount sellers before he moves on to the higher priced commodities.

What is most telling is the silence of the old timers on this thread. Only three long time participants responded to my original question of "why are you guys not holding out for higher prices?".

Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay wrote:For me, Cu is not as good an investment as Ag. What is most telling is the silence of the old timers on this thread. Only three long time participants responded to my original question of "why are you guys not holding out for higher prices?".

Wait a minute... I seem to remember when you first came on the other site saying that you had a goal of accumulating $17,000 face value in silver. Is my memory wrong? As far as my modest stash goes, I do pennies as a hobby, not to make money, so it doesn't make sense to sell at current prices. Not worth the "profit" for the effort right now. It will be though, soon enough. I think once silver and gold take off, copper will follow, and those without the budget for any of the precious metals will turn to base. The 3 tons of CU I have slowly amassed are, for me, acting as an insurance policy against a dollar devaluation.

beauanderos wrote:

Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay wrote: I seem to remember when you first came on the other site saying that you had a goal of accumulating $17,000 face value in silver

I think you might mean copper, I think I remember something about a truck that carries a large amount of tonnage. Cause I was thinking i need a truck like that

Oops. Old age. You're right, Copper.

beauanderos wrote:

Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay wrote:For me, Cu is not as good an investment as Ag. What is most telling is the silence of the old timers on this thread. Only three long time participants responded to my original question of "why are you guys not holding out for higher prices?".

Wait a minute... I seem to remember when you first came on the other site saying that you had a goal of accumulating $17,000 face value in silver. Is my memory wrong? As far as my modest stash goes, I do pennies as a hobby, not to make money, so it doesn't make sense to sell at current prices. Not worth the "profit" for the effort right now. It will be though, soon enough. I think once silver and gold take off, copper will follow, and those without the budget for any of the precious metals will turn to base. The 3 tons of CU I have slowly amassed are, for me, acting as an insurance policy against a dollar devaluation.

Hey! $17,000 face in silver is a little less than what I already have! NOT!

Yes, my goal was $17,000 in Cu pennies. That is how much my old light dump truck will haul to a smelter. $17,000 is a little less than 6 tons, the weight limit for my truck to stay legal. And I also argued vigorously for the penny when StateofMind ran his thread saying basically what I am saying now. What has changed is I have learned what the true sell prices are for Cu pennies.

The Cu penny should be selling for about 2x face right now. It is not. Why? Because too many people are selling at too great a discount. Will it get any better? I don't see that happening anytime soon because there are too many people selling at too great a discount. Only after the discount sellers run out of coins will the price rise to anything close to melt value less 15% for the refining costs. Right now, that is about 2x face.

Some day, the Lincoln Memorial cent will carry the same kind of prices as the old Indian Head cent. I just don't know that will happen in my lifetime.

Man, having 3 tons of Cu is impressive! I don't have anything close to that, and I will still aquire a little more Cu cents. But , I no longer have the desire to agressively build up a big stockpile of Cu. As long as I can still get silver, gold, and platinum group metals, that is where I'll be at.

Buy PM's, when you can't buy PM's... buy nickel and copper!

I know I got a bit tired of copper sorting myself... cut back from $500 a week to $400 a week on my pickups, and switched from 4 boxes to 6 boxes a week on halves. Since I seem to find an avg of $10 to $12 a box it seems more worthwhile to me, and there IS an immediate liquid market for silver at melt as opposed to CU. Someday. My guess is that whatever happens to copper's price after a melt legalization, that there will always be a wheatie premium at least 1.5 to 2.0 times the melt price. So my goal nowadays is socking away the wheats, not so much storing the pre-1982's. I think I should have close to $100 face value of wheaties by now, tho I don't keep track.

In my hometown a $50.00 face bag of wheaties sells for $225.00. That is 4.5x face. If only the pre-1982's would sell for that!

I don't know how many wheaties I have, either. I just throw them in a bag to re-sort later. The wife complains about all the halves and pennies laying around, so I have cleaned it up a bit. Oh, well. She should be happy I am not out drinking beer and winking a young cuties!

Beau, you live in California, right? I bought a small 20 acre mining claim near Cecilville, CA just for the vacationing fun of it. I thought it was a good buy at only $50/acre. The big stuff is long gone. I will be there next summer for two weeks looking for micron gold. Who knows? Maybe I'll get lucky!

Well, I am off to work on a roof in another town. Will be out of pocket for a few days. Cheers, everyone!

Dude... Cecilville is in the middle of nowhere! About the only thing around there are gangs of druggies growing pot in the wild. Best be careful. Let us know when you come out to work the claim and all the Californian's will come meet you.