If you want to find out the market price of a copper cent,
x = the probability of finding a copper penny in change, bank rolls, etc.
y = melt value
market price multiple = (1-x)*y
with the current probability of finding a copper penny at 22% (from what I've been reading) and a 2.5 melt value:
(1-0.22) * 2.5 = 1.875 is the fair market price per copper penny.
Some things to take into consideration
- the multiple will also be affected by perceptions about the metal's future movement (how bullish or bearish the participants are)
- probability of finding a copper penny is different by area, so this multiple might be higher or lower in different places.