Realcent.org

This topic has been mentioned before, especially among us disgruntled Texan sorters, but I have been wondering about its causes.

So, Realcenters, theorize here. Why is it that copper percentages are so low in Texas? For those of you who are unaware, it is commonly reported that our percentages down here range from 12% to 16% while the nationwide average is 20.35% according to Market Harmony's chart. My average for January was a mere 15%, and it's remaining 13.5% this month.

My theory is that we get a lot of new money here; the old money probably circulates in states without huge population centers. Because Texas has a bunch of large, bustling metropolitan areas (Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin [home!!], San Antonio, El Paso, etc), I believe that since our population has increased exponentially since 1982, our demand for pennies and coins in general has increased with it, giving the green light for the Fed's importation of truckloads of zinc pennies that excessively dilute the existing copper supply. This is the 2nd most populated and 2nd most sizable state after all.

So, what are your theories?

I chose #2. The most logical explaination seems to me that population growth really took off sometime after 1982 and so due to demand they have just brought in far more zinc pennies than usual.

I have a theory there is a big exporter to Mexico

TXBullion wrote:I have a theory there is a big exporter to Mexico

Copper pennies and illegal immigration are inversely related?

creshka46 wrote:I chose #2. The most logical explaination seems to me that population growth really took off sometime after 1982 and so due to demand they have just brought in far more zinc pennies than usual.

That is my prevailing theory as well. Texas's population has almost doubled since 1980. That said, I wonder if the "Texas has a lot more hoarders than normal" theory has any bearing on the actual copper statistics.

In just thinking last few times I crossed the border to Mexico , no one cared when you left but only when you tried to come back

I vote proximity to Mexico. Mexicans have been wary of paper after the 1000:1 devaluation from peso to new peso in 1993.

A box of copper pennies is still a box of copper pennies. A Chilean copper miner might get paid 250,000 pesos a week (one of the best paying jobs in Chile, second only to a silver miner)

You can almost see it happening with the US dollar, maybe a 50:1 devaluation when measured against copper coinage. A 3.11 gram penny in 1981 or an 8 gram mostly copper dollar in 201X - if the US stops circulating pennies like Canada.

TXBullion wrote:I have a theory there is a big exporter to Mexico

That's what I thought when I saw this poll... Probably being melted down in Mexico where it's legal to do so....

There's something to be said for population movements. Percentages in Detroit (and other areas with people moving out) seem to be higher than the nationwide average...and the big jar of pennies usually gets cashed in before people move.

It is not because there is a lot of hoarders - even if ALL the hoarders here were sorting in Texas we would not make a dent in the pennies. The answer is either dilution due to lots of new coins or a large sorter shipping them out of the country.

Reading these responses has been absolutely enlightening. I took no consideration for the factor of Mexico until now, though I am still not entirely sure why that would be the prevailing factor in the dearth of Texan copper pennies.

JadeDragon wrote:The answer is either dilution due to lots of new coins or a large sorter shipping them out of the country.

Which would be illegal, considering that it's illegal to export more than $5 worth of pennies out of the United States. Doesn't really stop anyone, I know, but you'd think the Feds would catch on if a massive dip in Texan penny supply manifested itself and there was no accountability.

Yeah, some sorter like us could conceivably be taking them out of the country a few hundred $ FV at a time, but like Jade Dragon said, that wouldn't really make a difference. If it were on a large enough scale, I think the government would notice...

By the way, I wonder how High the price of copper would have to go before the melt and export ban would start being widely defied. If it were like $20 a pound, I'm sure they would disappear quite quickly, melt ban or no...

I think it is because my adoptive father (see here: http://realcent.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=5364&p=49530&hilit=adoption#p49530), HoardCopperByTheTon, has a secret portal which allows him to beam himself into any armored car service facility in Texas, abscond with the copper Lincolns, and slip back to the Left Coast undetected.

I know...I know...just sort more!

shhhh.. still working on the portal to Maine.

TXBullion wrote:I have a theory there is a big exporter to Mexico

The real purpose of those smuggling tunnels!

TXBullion wrote:In just thinking last few times I crossed the border to Mexico , no one cared when you left but only when you tried to come back

That's my experience betwen Canada and the U.S., each country seems to be concerned
about what you are bringing or leaving behind in but doesn't care what you are taking out.
Though in recent years the U.S. has also wanted to know more about what you are doing
and who you are meeting.

I do have recollection of somebody on the old Realcent board mention a scrap yard in
Texas buying copper pennies. But that's just my fuzzy memory though.

ZenOps wrote:I vote proximity to Mexico. Mexicans have been wary of paper after the 1000:1 devaluation from peso to new peso in 1993.

A box of copper pennies is still a box of copper pennies. A Chilean copper miner might get paid 250,000 pesos a week (one of the best paying jobs in Chile, second only to a silver miner)

You can almost see it happening with the US dollar, maybe a 50:1 devaluation when measured against copper coinage. A 3.11 gram penny in 1981 or an 8 gram mostly copper dollar in 201X - if the US stops circulating pennies like Canada.

Anybody have any idea of what the percentages are in the other border states? If they were similar to Texas, then they could very well be finding their way to Mexico.

A Theory:

Grupo Mexico ranks among the most important companies in Mexico it is one of the major copper producers in the world. http://www.asarco.com/

If you scroll down you can see the plant locations:
http://www.gmexico.com/business-lines/scc.php

Cananea, Mexico about 6 hours from El Paso, TX

If you tossed in a few copper pennies do you think anyone would notice when you are producing 187,699 M.T. of copper annually?

i think it has less to do with illegal exports than it has to do with legal population increases since 1982.

the percentages in Atlanta are low also, 12-13%.

what you want to do is look at penny populations in 1982. there has been huge population growth in the sunbelt states since 1982, especially in large employment areas like houston, dallas, austin, and atlanta.

Also consider nearly 300 billion zincs out there and growing versus maybe 150 billion coppers produced 1959-1982.

Folks, I've thought about this a bit and have some data from several different states. It's quite simple: population growth. fast-growing population centers have much higher demands for & hence inflows of new coinage, and much lower "native" populations of older coinage.

Evidence: When I lived in the VA suburbs of DC, I averaged 25% (this was also back in '07-09). County population went from about 600K in 1980 to 1.1 M now. Last year, I sorted in a "rust belt" town where the population peaked in 1980; here I got 28%. Haven't done any tests, but I'm pretty sure that would be statistically significant at the 99% level!

I would love to know what people are getting in Detroit/ Flint MI--I think I've heard numbers north of 30%, which I would find easily believable and would further confirm my hypothesis.

I can see the population growth thing being a potential reason. I'm in Iowa (not much growth) and average around 27-28% very consistently. My sister, who works at a bank in Knoxville, TN (much more growth post '82) gets me a box every now and then. I usually only get 14-15% out of those boxes.

I would agree it is due to population growth.
Look at a map of growth and compare it to the map of the federal reserve districts.
The areas with the highest growth seem to have the lowest percentages.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ST9a6-MHq4E/T ... change.jpg
http://blog.glencoe.com/georgia/files/2 ... 874766.jpg

Lemon Thrower wrote:the percentages in Atlanta are low also, 12-13%.

Hawkeye wrote:I can see the population growth thing being a potential reason. I'm in Iowa (not much growth) and average around 27-28% very consistently. My sister, who works at a bank in Knoxville, TN (much more growth post '82) gets me a box every now and then. I usually only get 14-15% out of those boxes.

It's quite interesting, the inverse relationship between population and copper penny percentages. Thanks for commenting and theorizing on the topic, all. The poll's votes seems to be distributed among all its options so clearly there is variation in theory.

TXBullion wrote:I have a theory there is a big exporter to Mexico

+1 I have heard this too

You can also see this by watching which states report seeing the new pennies for the year first. The states that are getting the new pennies fastest tend to have much lower copper percentages.

HoardCopperByTheTon wrote:You can also see this by watching which states report seeing the new pennies for the year first. The states that are getting the new pennies fastest tend to have much lower copper percentages.

Exactly. It's not copper being pulled out, it's zinc being added that lowers percentages.

If you live in Texas.... just sort more