Copper extraction (NONE LEFT)

[Larkin]

Very interesting question I would like to pose to the members here:

At what point (in time) will the copper cents be removed from circulation based upon current hoarding. By point in time I mean 1-2 years, 3 years, 5 etc. By being removed from circulation I mean similar to where we are with wheat heads today. I understand that not all copper will ever be removed but you get my drift. I have in the past seen the mint numbers for copper cents and had a total. I will continue to work on this question and report back. The biggest issue is at what rate copper cents are being removed. Any input would be appreciated. Just on the surface, I would say within the next 2-3 years.

[Lemon Thrower]

will be much longer. the penny will be discontinued first. wheats can be easily identified by sight, copper cents less so.

[68Camaro]

No idea what the harvest rate is, except that I believe it is accelerating. I suspect that by the time we gather data on it, it will have already changed.

Total zinc production is about 275 billion thru Nov 2010. Add in coppers at whatever percent you want to believe are left, but you are left with a max number at 1.2 to 1.3 x 275. Min is maybe half that. I see unverified estimates on web of available pennies at 140-200 billion. If there are at most 50 billion coppers left (25% of 200 billion), and if they've historically been reduced in number by 2% year (before recent volume harvesting started) - that suggests that a previous "normal" reduction in quantity was 1 billion per year. If you want to speculate that the harvest rate has recently increased by 10-fold and further is becoming increasingly efficient by volume automation, that suggests that the 50 billion will be down to no more than 40 billion in another year. Etc. Which suggests to me that within 3 years the percentage will be less than 10% and may be below 5%, and within 5 years they may become rare. At some point during that time it will cease to be cost-effective to harvest them, and we will be left with a "wheat-like" status where you might see one or a couple out of a hundred.

So, to all you that are investing money in automation to harvest them, that suggests you had best ensure you pay off your equipment within the next year or two, before the "crop" dies.

[HPMBTT]

68Camaro: all your comments/points are very good. Keep in mind that there is also a slight increase in the numbers every time someone unknowingly throws pennies back into the general population. Example: spouse of someone who bought a bunch of copper pennies accidentally dumps/spends them. This happens at least some of the time with 40% & 90% coins too. After all, we are still finding some silver, aren't we?

One more thing. As times get tougher, people are more worried/stressed, or they are working more than one job to make ends meet. Therefore, the average person doesn't have the time or knowledge to pull coppers.

I would add 1-2 years to your time frame. It will depend on how bad it actually gets in the states too and how quickly the dollar declines. The faster it declines, the faster some of the smarter people will start pulling coins that have a decent metals value/content. If there is a complete collapse, then I think all coppers would go in less than a year, perhaps 1-2 months. Silver would be virtually non-existent.

Just my two (almost three) cents.

[68Camaro]

All good points as well. It's not going to be an exact science as it will depend on timing of current events, price of base metals, level of inflation, what the mint does with the penny, etc. But point of the thread is that copper penny in common circulation is at the end of it's life. 3 years or less, 5 years, 7 years - whatever, they'll certainly be gone within this decade.

All the zincs that we are disgusted with and "throwing back" will eventually (maybe soon) be worth more than face. Running 60-65% of face now. Within the same time span we're talking about, we can fully expect that the zincs themselves will be worth saving, at least in theory.

And somewhere in this time frame has to be the end of the penny, regardless of it's form. Even steel pennies cost more to make (not in raw material, but in labor, overhead, etc) than face, so there will be expontentially increasing pressure on the mint to end the penny, period.

[NDFarmer]

Example: spouse of someone who bought a bunch of copper pennies accidentally dumps/spends them.

In my case it won't be "accidental" my wife tells me she can't wait to take all those d*%n boxes of pennies I have piled up in the basement to the bank. Along with all my silver.

[Dave]

I have come across more solid rolls of cu in the past 2 months than I did all of last year.

[pennypicker]

If the price of copper falls back down under $2 a pound, (and it could very well happen though I hope it doesn't), then cu pennies will remain in circulation for years to come giving all of us more time to build our hoards.

:edited for spelling

[Finder]

My prediction is copper never goes below 4 again.

3, no way imo.

Unless a world class copper mine is discovered and China's economy collapses.
Or we find a cheaper substitute for all the things copper is good for.

Could be wishful thinking on my part though, I do have a vested interest.

[pennypicker]

Finder, I agree with all your points and I hope copper never does go below $4 again and certainly not $3. I however always keep in the back of my mind that the price of copper has a history of being volatile and if it does take a big drop I will look at it in a positive way and know cu pennies in circulation will stay around longer because of this drop.

[Tourney64]

If the penny is discontinued without notice, then pennies may no longer be accepted at banks and getting pennies to harvest would be impossible and impracticle. If nothing changes with hyperinflation or discontinuation of the penny then we will see a gradual decline. I was getting 20% in 2006, 15% in 2007. 13% in 2008, 17% in 2009, 20% in 2010 (excluding 10 boxes on new shield pennies). I believe the rise in copper % the last 2 years is due to the economy.

[Finder]

Pennypicker, well its holding 4 well so far, even with the added pressure of copper stockpiles increasing, but how much of an increase can $4 stand? Well see I guess.

Tourney64, real interesting stats on your take from 2006 to now. People in need selling their pennies the last couple years, makes sense.

[west77]

When you consider that even after the Canadian mint has been commercially "harvesting" nickel for a couple of years that there is still plenty left in circulation I would suggest that it will be a number of years (possibly a decade) before the pool of copper actually dries up. Almost nobody is aware of the intrinsic value of the lowly penny and fewer still are harvesting them. Even when I tell people about my "hobby" almost nobody is willing to go through the hassle of sorting their pocket change and keeping it separate and hold it for years...

The internet and various forums have caused many minorities to have a skewed vision of reality. While there are a couple of hundred of us on this forum who have "hoarded" copper and discuss the intrinsic value of the metal the majority of the population remains blissfully unaware and does not care for the lowly penny. Having a forum to discuss it with "like minded" individuals may contribute to the view that it will be a year or two before millions of copper pennies are hidden away in basements across the continent. Even at copper valued at 3X face there is virtually no market and while coin dealers deal in 90% I am unaware of a single one who would accept copper at anything more than face...

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

There will never be a better time to sort and hoard than right now. Though the copper percentages should increase slightly for a short period immediately after NDFarmer's wife dumps his hoard at the bank.

When the copper dries up we can always go back and sort out the tons we have accumulated for wheats and die varieties.

[McDuck]

Pennypicker, well its holding 4 well so far, even with the added pressure of copper stockpiles increasing, but how much of an increase can $4 stand? Well see I guess.

If a significant correction happens and if $4 is broken on the downturn the next support levels are $3.50 and $3.20, respectively.

That said...
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110107-706520.html

Given the short supply, China's appetite for development, proposed copper ETFs, scared money looking for quality, Wall Street greed, and central bank QE-infinity, the ceiling is fairly high.

[TXBullion]

When you consider that even after the Canadian mint has been commercially "harvesting" nickel for a couple of years that there is still plenty left in circulation I would suggest that it will be a number of years (possibly a decade) before the pool of copper actually dries up. Almost nobody is aware of the intrinsic value of the lowly penny and fewer still are harvesting them. Even when I tell people about my "hobby" almost nobody is willing to go through the hassle of sorting their pocket change and keeping it separate and hold it for years...

The internet and various forums have caused many minorities to have a skewed vision of reality. While there are a couple of hundred of us on this forum who have "hoarded" copper and discuss the intrinsic value of the metal the majority of the population remains blissfully unaware and does not care for the lowly penny. Having a forum to discuss it with "like minded" individuals may contribute to the view that it will be a year or two before millions of copper pennies are hidden away in basements across the continent. Even at copper valued at 3X face there is virtually no market and while coin dealers deal in 90% I am unaware of a single one who would accept copper at anything more than face...

There are already millions in basements im sure.

FYI, someone once told me this; "Thats what it is to be on the leading edge, you don't have a lot of people there with you" Otherwise it woulddnt be called the leading edge

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

If you aren't living on the edge.. you're taking up too much space.

[Copper Catcher]

Stop scaring yourself.....

As I posted in another thread...It has been estimated that there is around 191 billion pennies in circulation give or take several billion...If you remember the not to distant past i.e. Mr. Luhrman of Jackson Metals LLC in Jackson, Ohio... He sorted 5 billion coins annually, separating out 1.2 billion copper pennies all prior to the melt ban.

This operation is or was one of the biggest known pulling copper. If he could only sort 5 billion coins annually you do the math.

We are not going to wake up one day soon and never find another copper penny, it just is not going to happen, that is until HoardCopperByTheTon releases his secret weapon and instantly recovers them all. But then North Korea and Iran will have nuclear weapons so it want really matter! Boo....

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

We are not going to wake up one day soon and never find another copper penny, it just is not going to happen, that is until HoardCopperByTheTon releases his secret weapon and instantly recovers them all. But then North Korea and Iran will have nuclear weapons so it want really matter! Boo....

Ah, but we have the delivery system!

[beauanderos]

What I could imagine happening is that those of us who have already accumulated a few tons of copper will find a more ready market for selling face copper bags of cents as the price of copper rises considerably due to inflation. I also imagine that Ryedale's will become more expensive as demand for them grows. Keep sorting and stashing, and hold onto what's affordable for now. You can sell them when the going rate is over 2X, and you'll be happy you waited. It shouldn't be too much longer with all the friggin QE's going on.

[aristobolus]

Remember, the half-cent has completely (except some fluky freaky occurence) disappeared from circulation. Within three to ten years, I can see the U.S. rounding up to either fifths or tenths of a dollar in its monetary practice. This will happen either to "save money" on the costs of not producing these coins, or due to hyper-inflation, or a combination of both. The attendant questions to this are, "Will the U.S. government try to require us to turn in the copper?" Will we still be allowed to use pennies/nickels in transactions? Or will these cease to be legal tender after a certain amount of time? Also, will the ban on melting these be lifted? Finally, how soon will we switch to a cashless, electronic society?

As said many times here, "Hoard now, and hold on".

[pennysifter]

The first thing to note is that your copper hoard will never really increase in "value". Any price increase is probably due to inflation. Hoarding only preserves your value. Any money "made" in the future is just preserved value from a better time. Example: current silver prices.

I believe that the penny will become obsolete long before it is no longer worthwhile to sort for coppers. True, copper pennies will be harvested at a faster rate as time goes by, but we must remember that all rejected zinc pennies are due to be sorted again by another looking for the coppers. This means that after a few years, you will have to sort so many it will be extremely cumbersome to sort (<10% copper) resulting in slower sorting of remaining copper. You still have to dump them somewhere.

Even if nobody sorted coppers from zincs, the % would continue to decline naturally as the mint is making more and more zincs as the total population (copper + zinc) is lost or winds up in piggy banks.

As far as Ryedales go, any good idea is bound to be copied and marketed at a cheaper rate. I foresee "copper penny sorters" at Harbor Freight within 5 years. Whether or not they will be worth anything or reliable is dependent on your view of HF. I'm sure they will work, but will be liable to break down quickly and run $30-50.

So will I continue to sort coppers? Definitely yes. Will copper continue to rise in value? Yes. Will percentages drop? Yes. Will the value of sorting diminish due to fewer coppers in circulation, albeit a higher value for them? Probably not.

[HoardCopperByTheTon]

I'm scared. Ahm a gonna fire up the combine and start harvesting faster.

[Larkin]

Here are the true mintage numbers for copper lincoln memorials: 158,150,468,413
Philadelphia Denver San Fran
1959    609,715,000 D - 1,279,760,000 S - 0
1960    586,405,000 D - 1,580,884,000 S - 0
1961    753,345,000 D - 1,753,266,700 S - 0
1962    606,045,000 D - 1,793,148,140 S - 0
1963    754,110,000 D - 1,774,020,000 S - 0
1964    2,648,575,000 D - 3,799,071,500 S - 0
1965    1,497,224,900 D - 0 S - 0
1966    2,188,147,783 D - 0 S - 0
1967    3,048,667,100 D - 0 S - 0
1968    1,707,880,970 D - 2,886,269,600 S - 258,270,001
1969    1,136,910,000 D - 4,002,832,200 S - 544,375,000
1970    1,898,315,000 D - 2,891,438,900 S - 690,560,004
1971    1,919,490,000 D - 2,911,045,600 S - 525,133,459
1972    2,933,255,000 D - 2,665,071,400 S - 376,939,108
1973    3,728,245,000 D - 3,549,576,588 S - 317,177,295
1974    4,232,140,523 D - 4,235,098,000 S - 409,426,660
1975    5,451,476,142 D - 4,505,275,300 S - proofs only
1976    4,674,292,426 D - 4,221,592,455 S - proofs only
1977    4,469,930,000 D - 4,194,062,300 S - proofs only
1978    5,558,605,000 D - 4,280,233,400 S - proofs only
1979    6,018,515,000 D - 4,139,357,254 S - proofs only
1980    7,414,705,000 D - 5,140,098,660 S - proofs only
1981    7,491,750,000 D - 5,373,235,677 S - proofs only
1982    10,712,525,000 D - 6,012,979,368 S - proofs only
82,040,269,844 72,988,317,042 3,121,881,527

[Numis Pam]

Here are the true mintage numbers for copper lincoln memorials: 158,150,468,413
Philadelphia Denver San Fran
1959    609,715,000 D - 1,279,760,000 S - 0
1960    586,405,000 D - 1,580,884,000 S - 0
1961    753,345,000 D - 1,753,266,700 S - 0
1962    606,045,000 D - 1,793,148,140 S - 0
1963    754,110,000 D - 1,774,020,000 S - 0
1964    2,648,575,000 D - 3,799,071,500 S - 0
1965    1,497,224,900 D - 0 S - 0
1966    2,188,147,783 D - 0 S - 0
1967    3,048,667,100 D - 0 S - 0
1968    1,707,880,970 D - 2,886,269,600 S - 258,270,001
1969    1,136,910,000 D - 4,002,832,200 S - 544,375,000
1970    1,898,315,000 D - 2,891,438,900 S - 690,560,004
1971    1,919,490,000 D - 2,911,045,600 S - 525,133,459
1972    2,933,255,000 D - 2,665,071,400 S - 376,939,108
1973    3,728,245,000 D - 3,549,576,588 S - 317,177,295
1974    4,232,140,523 D - 4,235,098,000 S - 409,426,660
1975    5,451,476,142 D - 4,505,275,300 S - proofs only
1976    4,674,292,426 D - 4,221,592,455 S - proofs only
1977    4,469,930,000 D - 4,194,062,300 S - proofs only
1978    5,558,605,000 D - 4,280,233,400 S - proofs only
1979    6,018,515,000 D - 4,139,357,254 S - proofs only
1980    7,414,705,000 D - 5,140,098,660 S - proofs only
1981    7,491,750,000 D - 5,373,235,677 S - proofs only
1982    10,712,525,000 D - 6,012,979,368 S - proofs only
82,040,269,844 72,988,317,042 3,121,881,527

Wow! Interesting!!: