Realcent.org

I wonder if the collective activity of all members on this board are making a dent nationally in copper percentages? For instance since this board has started if none of us had ever sort a penny would the national copper percentage be one tenth of a percent high? I know there are a trillion or more pennies out there, but I think we have people on this board that sort 10K face a week.

Let's assume that collectively we are searching $100,000 of pennies per week. Figuring COPPER being pulled out at 25%, that would mean that as a group we are pulling $25000 of COPPER pennies each week. That would be 2.5 million COPPER pennies pulled out of circulation every week. It would take 400 weeks (a little less than 8 years) to pull out a BILLION COPPER pennies from circulation at that rate.

Questions...

Do we as a group search more or less than $100,000 of pennies each week?

How many COPPER pennies are still out there?

How many other searchers besides us are out there?

25% seems high as a nationwide average.

And I'd be very surprised if the cumulative sort on the forum was anywhere near $100,000 per week.

Consider this page here, which I discovered thanks to another member, ClarkCent (not sure if he's still here?)

http://www.kokogiak.com/megapenny/twelve.asp

According to the data, a little over 300B cents were ever minted (Lincolns, Wheaties, IH)
Having once researched mintages + added them myself, I can certainly concur with the accuracy of the 300B estimate.

Now, how many of those are coppper? About 20% nationwide, or 40B cents...and that number is falling every day.
As of 1982, when all cents were CU, there were 150B ever minted. So 110B, or about 74% have been collected/destroyed/lost/ no longer circulating.
Only 26% remain.

Now, of those 40B left, what is our current rate of extraction?

Well, let me point out that another member, Larkin, began a survey of how many each of us realcenters is pulling per month.
From the 1st post to today, Feb 28; 27 members responded, totaling $4,750.00 per month, or 475,000 cents per month, or averaging about 17,500 per realcenter.
Now, how many realcenters are on this forum? over 600.
Using these averages, I think it safe to say that at least (17,500 * 600) 10,500,000 cents are pulled every month.

In addition, there is no telling how many other hoarders are not on realcent- so that number is inevitably far higher; especially with the idea spreading like wildfire in these times (just check out the volume of sales on the bay...), plus the increasing use of Ryedales, comparitors, etc.

Again, these are very conservative figues.

Here it is: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3556

justj2k78 wrote:Here it is: http://realcent.org/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3556

thank you, Just

At any rate, I would estimate 10 years, at the most, when all CU cents go the way of the IH.

Red King wrote:Well, let me point out that another member, Larkin, began a survey of how many each of us realcenters is pulling per month.
From the 1st post to today, Feb 28; 27 members responded, totaling $4,750.00 per month, or 475,000 cents per month, or averaging about 17,500 per realcenter.
Now, how many realcenters are on this forum? over 600.
Using these averages, I think it safe to say that at least (17,500 * 600) 10,500,000 cents are pulled every month.

The people reporting are not a perfect sample set of the whole forum If any thing the reports should be considered the "high marks" not the average.

For one, several of the people on the list of members aren't active at all and others don't sort cents they do nickels or something else.


I would bet dimes to dollars that the average person here isn't increasing their hoard size by $9,100 per year. Which is your number. In fact, I will bet that less than 20 people on the whole forum have a net hoard increase rate of that much each year.

9100 increase per year is a lot of boxes. Basically a 25.00 box a day.

Hmmmm...I dunno. I'll bet Hoard easily does triple that per year. But you're probably right; the average realcenter who sells (or hoards) his copper may/may not be pulling that much from circulation annually. I know I'm not yet, but then again, I just started.

HPMBTT wrote:Hmmmm...I dunno. I'll bet Hoard easily does triple that per year. But you're probably right; the average realcenter who sells (or hoards) his copper may/may not be pulling that much from circulation annually. I know I'm not yet, but then again, I just started.

Who says it's "easy?"

Copper pennies are coming into circulation evberyday, this helps replenish the copper penny supply. My dads nieghbor died and he had a 5 gallon bucket of change. So there was a lot of copper coins that had been held out of circulation for decades.

i imagine this is repeated all over the US, and these coins don't get back into circulation until the owner of the coins dies, goes to retiremnt home, etc.

I don't think we will see an end to the copper coins for 5 years or more. The masses have no idea what the copper coins are worth, we are a minority.

I would say no. I think the zinc going into circulation affects the percentages more than everyone taking copper out.

Barrytrot and Good Cents:

My estimate was 17, 500 cents per month per member, or $175/mo. That would only be $2100/year.

Yes, that is a bit high for many here- but again- it's all about averages.

I wish I was clairvoyant and had the actual numbers, but guessing is all I have for now.

VMBeamer- you have a good point about re-circulation. It's a double-edge blade: It means more searching for all of us; yet it also means more payoff for all of us.

Red King wrote:Barrytrot and Good Cents:

My estimate was 17, 500 cents per month per member, or $175/mo. That would only be $2100/year.

Yes, that is a bit high for many here- but again- it's all about averages.

I wish I was clairvoyant and had the actual numbers, but guessing is all I have for now.

VMBeamer- you have a good point about re-circulation. It's a double-edge blade: It means more searching for all of us; yet it also means more payoff for all of us.

Hm, monthly does make it a more reasonable number. That still feels high in terms of an average since that is COPPER TAKEN. I.e. $175 would mean about $875 sorted, or a full box every day, which actually might be close to the real number.

That's for the clarification, Red King.