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What are the odds?

PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:37 am
by alpacafarmer
I know there are a lot of you that have been sorting for a long time and may be able to answer my question. I have hand sorted between 3.5 and 4 million cents and last night I came across my first ever key date (1914-D). So the question is did I get lucky that I didn't need to go through 10 million to find a Key ( feel lucky) or am I way behind and should have found 3 or 4 by now? I have sorted enough to know how many wheat's to expect in a box and how often a wild indian is going to show up.

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 1:05 pm
by highroller4321
There is no real way to tell the odds, but I would say you are very lucky!

Congrats on the find.

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:29 pm
by johnbrickner
Well, I'm no math expert but let's say the quantity you sorted and the % copper are on your side. Given 4M pennies sorted @ 25% Cu, you've seen a million copper cents and found the 1 in a million. Gratz.

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 2:39 pm
by cooyon
Congrats on your great find! The odds are probably not on your side to find 3 or 4 more key dates, but the fact that you found a 1914-D indicates there may still be great finds waiting for us sorters and searchers.

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:38 am
by Recyclersteve
I imagine some would have thought the coin was a 1944-D instead and just dumped it in with their wheaties. Nice going.

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 2:13 am
by wolvesdad
Very nice going!!

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:19 am
by alpacafarmer
14-D_opt.gif
14-D_opt.gif (217.28 KiB) Viewed 989 times

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:00 pm
by wolvesdad
A tiny hairline scratch, otherwise that one is in SUPER condition!
Awesome find!!

On a cent, is that hairline still count as a damaged coin by PCGS/NGC standards? Experts...

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:56 am
by TheJonasCollegeFund
wow congrats!!!

I've found my share of semi-keys but wow!

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:51 pm
by Thogey
And when you die the woman in your life will dump it back into the coinstar.

Just like the previous owner's did.

Re: What are the odds?

PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:48 pm
by spacemanX
excellent find!! congrats

for perspective, if you were only going thru Wheaties, the odds of finding that coin is 1/21,617