Realcent.org

How will it happen folks?

Composition change to steel
lift of the melt ban
Zinc pound spot = $3 therefore all pennies are worth at least 1.5/each
Hyperinflation debases the cent to 5-8/each and gold to $2500/ounce
the USA just stops production and americans round to the Nickel
industrial black market melting

Feel free to add your own thoughts and ideas.

- To lift the melt ban today means a (smart) act of Congress to change legislation. So, throw that one out.
- Zinc industry lobbyists would hate to compete with the added supply of zinc on the market, and then followed by decreased demand due to zero penny production. So, zinc price means little.
- The combination of #3 and #4 are the answer. Hyperinflation would make the penny a useless relic as all prices would be rounded to 5 cent increments and then 10 cent, and then quarter dollar, and then dollars.... change will be too cumbersome and removed from circulation after non-use
- and then the melters move in after melt bans are finally lifted

Market Harmony wrote:- To lift the melt ban today means a (smart) act of Congress to change legislation. So, throw that one out.
- Zinc industry lobbyists would hate to compete with the added supply of zinc on the market, and then followed by decreased demand due to zero penny production. So, zinc price means little.
- The combination of #3 and #4 are the answer. Hyperinflation would make the penny a useless relic as all prices would be rounded to 5 cent increments and then 10 cent, and then quarter dollar, and then dollars.... change will be too cumbersome and removed from circulation after non-use
- and then the melters move in after melt bans are finally lifted

If the 6162 bill passes congress wont have anything to do with it

I doubt the composition will change so I don't think it will be that.

The first week that the melt ban goes off their will be tens of millions of pennies taken out of circulation.

Zinc at higher levels would mean more people hold out zinc, but I doubt they will start to disapear very quickly.

Hyperinflation would be one way of doing it too but at that point you will need to worry about a lot more than pennies!

highroller4321 wrote:The first week that the melt ban goes off their will be tens of millions of pennies taken out of circulation.

You think so? Do you think the general public even KNOWS about that law, or would even know what the ramifications are if it is lifted?

Market Harmony wrote:-

- The combination of #3 and #4 are the answer. Hyperinflation would make the penny a useless relic as all prices would be rounded to 5 cent increments and then 10 cent, and then quarter dollar, and then dollars.... change will be too cumbersome and removed from circulation after non-use
- and then the melters move in after melt bans are finally lifted

Exactly what happened in Poland. I visited there for 3 weeks during Oct-Nov 1989. They had some serious hyperinflation hitting starting that year. Their last circulating coinage pretty much stopped being minted sometime during 1988.
When I first arrived, the exchange rate was 8000 Polish Zloty for one US Dollar...by the end of my 3 week stay, the exchange rate was 9500 Polish Zloty for one US Dollar. So, I figured for 1 US Dollar I could purchase whatever coins I could find just for the melt value...190,000 5 Grosy (which were aluminum), 95,000 10 Grosy (Aluminum), 47,500 20 Grosy (Aluminum), 19,000 50 Grosy (Aluminum), or even 9500 of the 1 Zloty coins (some of which were Aluminum or Brass).
I thought I had discovered a surefire money maker...Wrong!

Bottom line was that all the coins simply disappeared from circulation almost instantly...I even went to a bank to see if I could get some. None were available. The only coins you would see are ones discarded on the street...but there were not even many of those. All coins vanished from circulation sometime between the end of 1988 and Oct 1989 when I arrived.
Scary, isn't it?

PS: The communist Government in Poland ended just a week or two before I arrived there. I had not thought about it before, but the final collapse was probably aided by the hyperinflation brought about by government debasement of their currency. Sound familiar? Now it is getty scary!

If the pennies disappear; it is because we (the penny collectors and hoarders) have them all.

I still think the 1¢ will be eliminated and right after that the rate of decline with sorting percentages will speed up.

With electronic credits practically becoming the norm, I think all circulated coinage will follow the same route check writing has.

DF

Ok here is the deal..... Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010, H.R. 6162

The Coin Modernization, Oversight, and Continuity Act of 2010, numbered H.R. 6162, would give the Treasury Secretary, and thereby the United States Mint, the authority to research and develop different compositions for circulating coins, and then report findings to Congress. It also provides certain "technical corrections" to existing coin law, such as changing the technical specifications of the America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins and enabling the U.S. Mint to produce proof American Eagles even in times of unprecedented demand for the bullion versions.

…Report Required- Before the end of the 2-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act, and at 2-year intervals following the end of such period, the Secretary of the Treasury shall submit a report to the Committee on Financial Services of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate analyzing production costs for each circulating coin, cost trends for such production, and possible new metallic materials or technologies for the production of circulating coins.

http://www.coinnews.net/coin-legislatio ... /#BillText

This passed the house on September 19th and now moves on to Senate…

Once the US Treasury determines what the alternative metal or metals will be they will first change the nickel’s metal content, which is mainly copper in content. By that time, I honestly think the US penny will be history. I will predict that Canada will likely stop their penny production by late 2011 and the United States will follow suit no later than 2012.

The US mint will also quietly begin a reclamation program along the same guidelines as the one in Canada that started back in 2005 replacing the nickel. I’m guessing that there will probably be some smoke screen introducing a new nickel coin to help hide the change.

CANADIAN COIN NEWS - volume 43, number 2 - May 17 - 30, 2005 says the RCM has begun taking nickel coins from circulation, defacing them and selling them as scrap. Pre-2001 10 and 25 cent coins are first on the list even if they are not worn out. Aka Royal Canadian Mints ARP (Alloy Recovery Program)

http://journal.brinksinc.com/?id=journalissue11&page=4

http://www.mint.ca/store/dyn/PDFs/RCMCorpPlan2008.pdf

Copper Catcher wrote: I’m guessing that there will probably be some smoke screen introducing a new nickel coin to help hide the change.

Nice pun
, whether intentional or not!

Market Harmony wrote:- To lift the melt ban today means a (smart) act of Congress to change legislation. So, throw that one out.

Love it.

I think they wil just stop producing cents, those that are in circulation will continue to be used but the quantity available will decline. Once it becomes a little harder to find them then the general public may catch on and start to hoard them but there will be no price changes on merchandise, only a rounding of the total bill IF you are paying with cash...bills for charge cards, debt cards and checks can still be made out to the penny.