Realcent.org

Looking at the copper hand sorter thread, I can see that 36 guys have pulled out over 850,000 coppers so far this year. And if you look at that list, the top FOUR guys have pulled out nearly half a million themselves. There are so many things to emphasize here:
A) Four guys, nearly half a million cents saved, in just 8 months. How many pulled over their "sorting careers?"
B) 36 guys reporting. And you know there are many many MANY more doing it. How does that add up?
C) This is JUST THE HAND SORTERS. Ryedale owners must really shoot this number up... exponentially?

So... why do I still get well over 20% copper in my rolls?

I know this question has been thrown around so many times... but the amount of stuff being pulled boggles the mind. Yet somehow it doesn't seem to make a dent in what's available. And that makes my mind... well... twice-boggled.

[quote="uthminsta"]
So... why do I still get well over 20% copper in my rolls?
[quote]
Cause you live in Illinois. If you lived in Michigan it could be sell over 30%. When NDFarmer's wife puts his hoard back in circulation percentages will go up countrywide!

Think of it as trying to empty a lake with a teaspoon if you are a hand sorter. Ryedale sorters get to use a tablespoon.

What's amazing is 4 guys playing at that level that haven't mechanized.

HoardCopperByTheTon wrote:

uthminsta wrote:So... why do I still get well over 20% copper in my rolls?

Cause you live in Illinois. If you lived in Michigan it could be sell over 30%. When NDFarmer's wife puts his hoard back in circulation percentages will go up countrywide!

Think of it as trying to empty a lake with a teaspoon if you are a hand sorter. Ryedale sorters get to use a tablespoon.

Nice analysis there, Hoard.

But still....yes, it would be fun to run some numbers and try to guess when the copper percentages might actually go down in the future. For example, if 4 top RC guys are pulling 1 millions coppers yearly....and 36 people are pulling, say 2 million per year...then, for all of those guys that we don't know about, there could be, in theory, around 10-20 million coppers being pulled every year. And so, based on 2-3% attrition/loss per year, just take the total number (in billions) of copper cents created and then we now realize that 10-20 million pulled yearly is basically nothing. So, emptying that lake with a tablespoon is actually a pretty good analysis in my book.

The only thing that could change it is if the economy got much worse, and/or the melt ban was lifted, and the numbers of new sorters also increased. I would say that to make a dent in the percentages, we would need to see perhaps 100-200 millions coppers (or more) being pulled every year. Just my two copper cents.

According to Mint data on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Mint_coin_production), there have been 292 BILLION ZINC cents produced (a few of those are 1982 coppers I crudely lumped in). If circulation rates are 25% pre-1982s, it implies that there are 90-100 Billion coppers available. That's going to take awhile unless we form an LP, lump our sums, and acquire Brinks.

United States Mint Coin Production
Year 1¢
1890 57,180,114
1891 47,070,000
1892 37,647,087
1893 46,640,000
1894 16,749,500
1895 38,341,474
1896 39,055,431
1897 50,464,392
1898 49,821,284
1899 53,598,000
1900 66,831,502
1901 79,609,158
1902 87,374,704
1903 85,092,703
1904 61,326,198
1905 80,717,011
1906 96,020,530
1907 108,137,143
1908 33,441,367
1909 249,778,470
1910 152,843,813
1911 117,874,054
1912 82,992,915
1913 98,434,504
1914 80,567,067
1915 55,973,970
1916 190,298,627
1917 284,169,785
1918 370,614,634
1919 588,935,000
1920 405,665,000
1921 54,431,000
1922 7,160,000
1923 83,423,000
1924 89,394,000
1925 188,909,000
1926 189,658,000
1927 185,886,000
1928 182,512,000
1929 277,140,000
1930 221,801,000
1931 24,742,000
1932 19,562,000
1933 20,560,000
1934 247,526,000
1935 331,090,000
1936 379,382,000
1937 394,100,000
1938 191,872,000
1939 383,696,000
1940 781,140,000
1941 1,108,078,000
1942 950,084,000
1943 1,093,838,670
1944 2,148,338,000
1945 1,488,553,000
1946 1,505,445,000
1947 484,305,000
1948 571,942,500
1949 435,197,500
1950 726,090,000
1951 1,045,941,000
1952 1,070,705,004
1953 1,139,105,000
1954 419,382,550
1955 938,447,500
1956 1,518,946,100
1957 1,333,882,000
1958 1,053,478,300
1959 1,889,475,000
1960 2,167,289,000
1961 2,506,611,700
1962 2,399,193,400
1963 2,528,130,400
1964 6,447,646,500
1965 1,497,224,900
1966 2,188,147,783
1967 3,048,667,100
1968 4,852,420,571
1969 5,684,117,200
1970 5,480,313,904
1971 5,355,669,059
1972 5,975,265,508
1973 7,594,998,883
1974 8,876,665,183
1975 9,956,751,442
1976 8,895,884,881
1977 8,663,992,300
1978 9,838,838,400
1979 10,157,872,254
1980 12,554,803,660
1981 12,864,985,677
1982 16,725,504,368
1983 14,219,554,428
1984 13,720,317,906
1985 10,935,889,813
1986 8,934,262,191
1987 9,561,856,445
1988 11,346,550,443
1989 12,607,002,111
1990 11,774,659,533
1991 9,324,382,076
1992 9,097,578,300
1993 12,111,355,571
1994 13,632,615,000
1995 13,540,000,000
1996 13,123,260,000
1997 9,199,355,000
1998 10,257,400,000
1999 11,597,665,000
2000 14,277,420,000
2001 10,334,590,000
2002 7,288,855,000
2003 6,848,000,000
2004 6,836,000,000
2005 7,700,050,500
2006 8,234,000,000
2007 7,401,200,000
2008 5,419,200,000
2009 2,354,000,000
2010 4,010,830,000
TOTAL PRODUCTION 460,937,326,951
FACE VALUE $4,609,373,270
292,413,353,685

HoardCopperByTheTon wrote:When NDFarmer's wife puts his hoard back in circulation percentages will go up countrywide!

Ouch.

HoardCopperByTheTon wrote:

uthminsta wrote:So... why do I still get well over 20% copper in my rolls?

Think of it as trying to empty a lake with a teaspoon if you are a hand sorter. Ryedale sorters get to use a tablespoon.

Yeah, but Hoard uses a fist full of tablespoons at a time when he is scooping

What was the percent copper 15 years ago, 10 years ago and 5 years ago? Or was no one sorting at that time?

I live in a large city on the East coast and have been averaging 25-30% coppers. I'm sorting about 50,000 per week.

The way I figure, I only take into consideration the copper memorials because that is 99.9% of the copper we find. I think there were about 150 billion minted from 1959-1982. However, I read somewhere that 200 billion is the current estimate of TOTAL pennies in circulation. Given that we're finding about 20% on average, 200*20% = 40 billion copper pennies currently in circulation. So let's be conservative and figure 50 million are being hoarded every year. That's only 0.125%, barely a drop in the bucket. At that rate it would take 800 years to hoard them all Obviously, I think more people will get into this over time but given those numbers, I would bet that the penny will go out of circulation before we even go lower than 10% copper saturation. Anyone agree? Disagree?

hey youth minister...check this out....this year my Cu capture has increased to over 20% from 18.1% for '09 and '10 all bank boxes, very little CWR's. Even with the additional zinc billions from the mint...now that is mind-boogling.

fasteddy wrote:hey youth minister...check this out....this year my Cu capture has increased to over 20% from 18.1% for '09 and '10 all bank boxes, very little CWR's. Even with the additional zinc billions from the mint...now that is mind-boogling.

This might have something to do with the lousy economy/high unemployment situation. More people scrounging for money means that more people are cashing in their change that had been accumulating at home. Generally, those coins are typically older and therefore have a higher percentage of copper. It's possible that is what caused your increases. Or just luck or a shift in the supply in your area. Lots of possibilities.

HoardCopperByTheTon wrote:What's amazing is 4 guys playing at that level that haven't mechanized.

half a million pennies by hand in 1 year those really were the good old days. Now it's like pocket change sorting, since Ryedale sorting makes that possible in a fraction of the time depending on supply/dump connections.

JobIII wrote:

HoardCopperByTheTon wrote:What's amazing is 4 guys playing at that level that haven't mechanized.

half a million pennies by hand in 1 year those really were the good old days. Now it's like pocket change sorting, since Ryedale sorting makes that possible in a fraction of the time depending on supply/dump connections.

1,000,000 per year by hand = pocket change sorting? Out of curiousity, how many Rydales are you currently running?

After joining/reading these forums for the past week, I realize that my 50K pennies per week is sissy stuff.

I have a lot to aspire to.

Cu Penny Hoarder wrote:

JobIII wrote:

HoardCopperByTheTon wrote:What's amazing is 4 guys playing at that level that haven't mechanized.

half a million pennies by hand in 1 year those really were the good old days. Now it's like pocket change sorting, since Ryedale sorting makes that possible in a fraction of the time depending on supply/dump connections.

1,000,000 per year by hand = pocket change sorting? Out of curiousity, how many Rydales are you currently running?

After joining/reading these forums for the past week, I realize that my 50K pennies per week is sissy stuff.

I have a lot to aspire to.

20 boxes per week is a respectable clip. Just keep at it and the hoard will grow. You can do a serious amount of volume with just one Ryedale. I have 4 on the floor. You don't need the extra ones to do good volume.. it just allows you to process what you can source and dump in less time.

NHsorter makes a very good point. Copper cents going back into circulation should also be part of the equation. This forum has lots of posts of people finding whole rolls of wheats and copper cents. No doubt that Grandpa’s change is getting dumped back into circulation daily. Even easier now that you have coinstar style machines to make it even easier.

I wouldn't say processing $500 a week is sissy stuff. Uber nerd maybe

half a million is equal to under 4 boxes a week. A million is under 8 a week. Sorting by hand that's not all that crazy. And returning that amount is E-Z....

Cu penny hoarder, you are sorting 5x more per week than the leading hand sorters. That's really all i meant by small potatos...

~JobIII

Yes, there are many billions still out there. The calcs have been done on this forum many times, several different ways, and no matter how you do it, it's many billions. 50, 70, 90 - who knows for sure, and that's close enough for an estimate of how long it will take to suck them up.

I can tell you that I'm pulling them in (whether sorting or buying from RCers) at an annual rate of about $5000 face. Small potatoes compared to the big dogs, but more than others, so I'll call myself middle of the road and use me as a "typical" case. That's half million a year. In two years, a million, and it would take a thousand of me to make a billion, and that's about the population of RC. So maybe we're pulling in a billion every two years.

Let's assume that besides the RCers there are 4x the number that are also sorting, but either not active in a forum, or not making it known. So maybe collectively the major hoarders are pulling in 5 Billion every two years.

If the number of pennies out there is 50 billion it would take 10 years to cut the penny yield in half.

The number of sorters, or sorting amounts, could be higher, as could the number of pennies, or both. I think there are at leaset 5 years left of decent sorting, but no more than 15.

And all bets are off if fiat money completely dies. At that point people will be gasping for any coin, even clad, but especially the pennies and nickels.

Fuel to the fire......

Using iluc’s mintage numbers posted above, along with other references to narrow down just Lincoln cents http://www.coin-collecting-guide-for-beginners.com/lincoln-penny.html,
and with these four exceptions:
•1943 mintage not included in totals
•1982 mintage divided in half between copper and zinc
•2011 mintage not included in totals
•Totals do not account for attrition removal

One could conclude:

Total copper wheat cent mintage 24.724 billion
Total copper memorial cent mintage 149.787 billion
Total copper cent mintage (24.724 + 149.787) = 177.511 billion

Total zinc memorial cent mintage 275.480 billion

All total cent mintage (177.511 + 275.480) = 452.991 billion

So using those numbers the % of copper in circulation would equal total copper / total mintage or (177.511 / 452.991) = 39.19%

*My average copper percentage per bag equals 31.51% after 278 bags sorted, so:
31.51% of 452.991 billion equals 142.737 billion, therefore (177.511 – 142.737) = 34.774 billion copper cents removed, or -19.59%, if my personal copper average is the norm.

But using a range of 20% to 30% instead of an absolute 31.51% would conclude:

30% of 452.991 billion equals 135.897 billion, therefore (177.511 - 135.897) = 41.614 billion copper cents removed, or -23.44%
20% of 452.991 equal 90.598 billion, therefore (177.511 – 90.598) = 86.913 billion copper cents removed, or -48.96%

Looking at the 50 year chart for copper, one could argue that true hoarding probably took hold with the spike in copper above $4000 per metric ton…approx. 2006 to present…so the last 5 years would be considered true hoarding…..of course a disclaimer could be inserted here.



Thus 30% remaining copper in circulation required removal of 41.614 billion coins. Dividing that by 5 years results in 8.323 billion copper coins removed per year, which would produce an estimate of (135.897 / 8.323) = 16.33 years to remove the remaining copper from circulation….

At 20% remaining copper in circulation a removal of 86.913 billion coins was required.
Dividing that by 5 years results in 17.282 billion copper coins removed per year, which would produce an estimate of (90.598 / 17.282) = 5.24 years to remove the remaining copper from circulation……

Of course these are only fantasy calculations due to data assumptions on my part, but a close examination of the copper percentage change over time would reveal a close approximation of when copper cents will be extinct…..

hags

Welcome, HAGS! Good stuff.

JobIII wrote:half a million is equal to under 4 boxes a week. A million is under 8 a week.

Are you talking under 8 boxes SORTED or under 8 boxes YIELDED? That would mean (if dealing with 20% returns) sorting 40 boxes a week... I can't see how you have time for anything else... including a job!

uthminsta wrote:Welcome, HAGS! Good stuff.

JobIII wrote:half a million is equal to under 4 boxes a week. A million is under 8 a week.

Are you talking under 8 boxes SORTED or under 8 boxes YIELDED? That would mean (if dealing with 20% returns) sorting 40 boxes a week... I can't see how you have time for anything else... including a job!

I didn't look at the tracking post about hand sorters. I made the assumption that half a million was sorted not yielded. Are hand sorters getting $5000 in copper annually? That makes things a little more impressive but no less doable. If anything 12 boxes a week or whatever is needed to get $5k is not impossible by hand, But it does depend on the % being yielded. 12 versus say 20

wow Hags impressive stuff post number 2, welcome to the nut house.

fasteddy wrote:wow Hags impressive stuff post number 2, welcome to the nut house.

..a long time lurker....life long coin collector....and addicted connoisseur of bullion.....

....glad to find a great forum loaded with excellent information.....my hats off to the organizers and participants....

hags

sorry to hijack....

Welcome, new posters!

I've been on the forum 10 months, and this must be at least the 4th major thread of this type. There will be at least one more before the year is up.

68...
I know. I just can't help it. When time allows, and if I can find them, I am going to re-read all of those threads. I plan to emerge from that research with one unified theory that explains life, the universe, and everything.