Realcent.org

"Underlying the anxiety is a stark statistic: if just 10 percent of the American population catches on, hoarders will be able to acquire only an estimated $34 (face value) worth of nickels before every last one has been removed from circulation."

Can this statement from the Newsweek article be substantiated?

Newsweek with a circulation of about 10 people? Good thing I buy one brick per week. I love trading my worthless paper FRN for real money. On the surface this "stat" does not make sense. It would require everyone to flood the banks almost at the same time, put orders in, etc. It might be time to consider buying some bricks at your bank. There is zero lose with lots to gain. The worst that could happen is you get your original investment back if you need to trade the nickels in for worthless toilet paper. Hoard now, hold on.

I think it would be hard to get 10% of Americans to do anything in unison. I have someone's $34 several times over so Maybe 9.999999%?

Coppins made sure it could be verified. We discussed this together. He took the total mintage and divided it by 10% of the population.

Still, it is a highly unlikely -- approaching 100% unlikely -- outcome because if, say, 5% of the US population began to stock up, it would make the nightly news, generating a buying frenzy, and then the supply would be gone before the full 10% of the population could load up on their $34. So all in all, a pretty worthless statistic. Or, as my professor of that subject said on the first day of class, "Welcome to Sadistics."

47% of all statistics are made up.

shinnosuke wrote:47% of all statistics are made up.

Are you sure it's 47%? Bbecause once word gets out that statistics are being made up, then everyone will be doing it and pretty soon they will all be made up...! Oh, wait, that's already happening!!

TwoPenniesEarned wrote:Coppins made sure it could be verified. We discussed this together. He took the total mintage and divided it by 10% of the population.

That works out to 68 nickels per person. That seems pretty marginal. Not arguing numbers, just surprised it does not create shortages.

10% hoarding sounds a bit high. 10% might like to hoard or actually try to find them to hoard, but I agree that the nickels would vanish quickly, IMO long before 5% actually got more than a roll.

68Camaro wrote:

shinnosuke wrote:47% of all statistics are made up.

Are you sure it's 47%? Bbecause once word gets out that statistics are being made up, then everyone will be doing it and pretty soon they will all be made up...! Oh, wait, that's already happening!!

I nominate Camero for the "smart adze of the day" award.

Mossy wrote:I nominate Camero for the "smart adze of the day" award.

I resemble that remark...

(BTW, back when I started in on ebay buying back in 99 and was workin on the Camaro (with an "a"), I used to really score some good parts cheap by searching for parts postings made under "Camero", which is/was a common typo. Got some great parts for next to nothing! )

I have had too many stats classes at the undergrad and grad level. But I remember my undergrad professor saying "garbage in, garbage out." Essentially, the Newsweek article is garbage. I do recommend that you hoard what you can afford on regularly scheduled basis.

Statistics also assume a lack of intellegent direction. That is not the case here.

Numbers don't lie, people do.

Statistics are a wonderdful and powerful tool IF they are used correctly, calculated correctly and interpreted correctly.

coppertone wrote:Numbers don't lie, people do.

Amen dude!

A friend and I were discussing a related issue the other day over a cold one. We were musing the changeover from the the standard nickel composition of today versus what will likely happen within the next couple of years.

Our thought is that by 2012, the US Mint will be following Canada with the plated steel planchets. It could be that these 5 cent coins could already be in the minting and stockpiling mode. These coins would continue to bear the 2012 date for the next ten years (when small denomination coinage would be completely phased out). Wouldn't be the first time that a date freeze has been instituted by a major country's mint.

It's been widely accepted that the Royal Canadian Mint has been responsible for pulling its own high nickel content coinage out of circulation. Same with the copper cents. The market would be flooded with the new steel fivers and everyone would be competing with the Mint to hoard the old ones. Ultimately, of course, the Mint will be the winner. That'll be a sad day indeed...but, it's inevitable. The vending industry may squawk, but who really uses cents or nickels in a vending machine these days. With the general acceptance of credit cards and one dollar bills by these machines, it's pointless to consider their wishes.

Also with the $34 face by 10% of the population, does that also account for those lost or otherwise vanish from circulation each year?

How many million people with continue to call these steel fivers a "nickel" even though it'll only be plated? My guess is most everyone.

Zero chance of a date freeze. The mint makes a good deal of profit by selling collector sets.

If 10% of americans got $34 that would be able 17 trillion total nickels. The number seems reasonable, I'm not going to spend time adding up the total mintages.

Yea but I think we all know there isn't, what? 30 million people going to horde nickels? 3 million even? no.

Nickel Mintage 1938-2010: 52.9 bil (wikipedia)
Current US Pop: 311 mil

52900/31.1= 1700 nickels = $85/person

$34 seems about right then. But I agree, it's a meaningless statistic.

30 million people going to horde nickels? 3 million even?

Yessiree.

Just give it time. In the early-mid 1960's people started catching on to the fact that the melt value exceeded the face value and began hoarding. By 1970 the vast majority of the pre-66 circulating coinage was gone.

I agree. It could happen, but it will happen over the course of time. Nickels will not suddenly evaporate like the Newsweek article implies when it states "underlying the anxiety is a stark statistic...." I recommend that the RC hoarders just buy and hoard what you can using a disciplined approach. I buy one brick of nickels per week.

I'm curious, because though this happened with silver, for obvious reasons it didn't happen with copper because it wasn't worth most people's time to sort it out. What was the melt value of a copper penny back in 1982 though?

Good question

It happened, is happening, but more slowly - 1) because of the lower differential for most of that time, and 2) because when the price differential got high enough to seriously interest people, they banned melting, stifling all but the more "radical" of us.

shinnosuke wrote:Still, it is a highly unlikely -- approaching 100% unlikely -- outcome because if, say, 5% of the US population began to stock up, it would make the nightly news, generating a buying frenzy, and then the supply would be gone before the full 10% of the population could load up on their $34. So all in all, a pretty worthless statistic. Or, as my professor of that subject said on the first day of class, "Welcome to Sadistics."

47% of all statistics are made up.

does this statistic fall with that 47%?

I should really start saving more nickels than I do. Problem is I like to spend all my $ on copper cents.