"Raptor Fund"

[neilgin1]

0805 CST

Buy 50 SIH13 at the market, the 2nd tick is mine.....29.14

Bot 50 SIH13 @ 29.14

Long 800 SIH13 at an avg of 29.01------total margin required 29.6 mln USD

(i wonder if "HWS Resources Ltd" would begin to get love letters from the excchange yet?)

[neilgin1]

0827 CST

put in resting order :

Buy 200 SIH13@ 28.99

[IdahoCopper]

Neil,

When your book is published, I want to buy an autographed copy to add to my stack.

Physical: If you can't hold it, you don't own it.

.

[neilgin1]

0902 CST

BUY 100 SIH13 at the market,,,,,,,,2nd tick is mine.......29.06

BOT 100 SIH13 @29.06

Total long 900 SIH13 (margin required 33.3 mln USD)

[neilgin1]

Neil,

When your book is published, I want to buy an autographed copy to add to my stack.

Physical: If you can't hold it, you don't own it.

.

i'll give you an autographed copy, all i ask is that you pray for me......yeh?

[beauanderos]

Neil,

When your book is published, I want to buy an autographed copy to add to my stack.

Physical: If you can't hold it, you don't own it.

.

we need to have a thread to nominate titles for his eventual book:

Out of Control: how one bold individual challenged the status quo, and turned the tables on the moneymakers

Boss Silver: the real story of the billionaire next door, forward by Carlos Slim

David versus Go Lieth: behind the scenes of the drama that unfolded during the Crash of the House of Morgan

Who Needs It?: Supporting the lifestyle you've always dreamed of

Life's a Beach: Swim with the Sharks, and play with their minds

Present Tense, Future Perfect: How Silver Became the New Gold

Off Your Rocker: holding onto youth by turning physical

Neil and Bow Down: the true story of Jamie Dimon's fall from grace, forward by Gary Gensler

[johnbrickner]

Neil:

How do you determine the Buy price for the Raptor Fund purchases?

[IdahoCopper]

Neil,

When your book is published, I want to buy an autographed copy to add to my stack.

Physical: If you can't hold it, you don't own it.

.

i'll give you an autographed copy, all i ask is that you pray for me......yeh?

You got a deal, thanks.

[neilgin1]

Neil:

How do you determine the Buy price for the Raptor Fund purchases?

hey John, certainly, if you look above, i had a price order in to buy 200 March 13 Silver at 28.99....the low at the time was 29.00.

next time i looked the new low was 28.92, which would mean that a buy order for 200 at 28.99 would have been filled, so ......


Bot 200 SIH13 @ 28.99

total longs---1100 March 13 Silver

John, when i "buy at the market"...in this paper trading exercise, i go two ticks out,,,,,i write it out, than watch the board trade, wait for tick to trade, then the second tick is where i "buy"...even though its "paper trading", i'm trying to make it as real as possible..

[PennyPauper]

"Traders Bet Silver Will Shine" http://www.cnbc.com/id/100494923
Word is getting out.

Love this idea. I'm also curious about how taxes would be paid on all these trades.
Do you play chess also? What is your end game?
Good luck in your project. Its been a good read so far.

[johnbrickner]

Neil:

How do you determine the Buy price for the Raptor Fund purchases?

hey John, certainly, if you look above, i had a price order in to buy 200 March 13 Silver at 28.99....the low at the time was 29.00.

next time i looked the new low was 28.92, which would mean that a buy order for 200 at 28.99 would have been filled, so ......


Bot 200 SIH13 @ 28.99

total longs---1100 March 13 Silver

John, when i "buy at the market"...in this paper trading exercise, i go two ticks out,,,,,i write it out, than watch the board trade, wait for tick to trade, then the second tick is where i "buy"...even though its "paper trading", i'm trying to make it as real as possible..

Neil:

I get how you arrived at the Bot. price @ $28.99. What I want to know is how did you decide to place the buy order @ $28.99. Crystal ball? logarithm computer program? Gut feeling? I'm open to whatever it is but curious minds want to know!

[neilgin1]

"Traders Bet Silver Will Shine" http://www.cnbc.com/id/100494923
Word is getting out.

Love this idea. I'm also curious about how taxes would be paid on all these trades.
Do you play chess also? What is your end game?
Good luck in your project. Its been a good read so far.

yeh, good...i'm going to watch that in a sec. ONVIOUSLY, this is all make believe, based on yours truly having a liquid net worth of 300 mln USD.

and believe me if i DID have such liquidity, using these funds to stand for delievery of silver on Comex, would be a semi-prudent business decision.....i say "semi", because i "hear things"....i started this on Monday Feb 25, because that was 3 trading days before 1st Notice Day...and in that time, you might of noticed that open interest went from over 30,000 contracts to 2586 this morning....thats why i felt it wouldnt be phony, to be able to bid for 50 to a 100 lots of March silver, large spec's are getting OUT.....today, thursday?....with this fictional 1100 car position on?....my goodness, my phone would be ringing off the hook, everybody from exchange officials up and down the food chain...the house i would be clearing thru....ummm, probably entities that are still "short".....sold, and maybe or maybe not committed for delivery......who knows?

to put the whole in perspective, my 1100 car position, would represent not only almost HALF the remaining open interest, but also its 5.5 mln troy ounces, and at the avg price i bought them at.... $29...these 1100 cars, 5.5 mln ounces, would have a value of $160 mln dollars, which you better believe NUMEROUS functionarues would have me jumping thru hoops to either SHOW i had the funds....OR require me TODAY to deposit 160 mln USD in some escrow account...TODAY.

it would be a BIG DEAL...a lot of people wouldnt be that happy...consider this...remember in January, record sales of Silver Eagles, off the top of my head, i think it was 6.3 million 1oz Eagles went out the door...then they had to suspend sales...BECAUSE...they RAN OUT of planchets....and now some individual is demanding to be delievered 5,500 One thousand troy ounces bars....and not just ANY bars,because according to contract spec's....but official sanctioned "brands" http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/silver-brands.html.....and there's not a LOT of concerns that fab 1,000 toz "bars"...they're like 83 pounds plus....TIMES 5,500...so then i have add a couple of assayers, who are trustworthy, as well as a small team of attorneys, who i have to VET intensely...i wouldnt want any lawyers, who are with a firm, or have represented ANY of the major banking concerns...

here's "chapter 112" of the exchange's rulebook, on silver......three pages, an interesting read....see if you find the "wiggle room" in the rules.........http://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/NYMEX/1a/112.pdf......

what i think is that, silver is tight......which is real EASY analysis based on just the fact the Mint ran short in JAN!!...its not rocket science.....but i also know that in the past run up to 50, there were guys, mid level hedge funds, 300-500 mln cap, that were standing for delievery, and i read these guys were given communications that said, (basically) "we dont have the silver to deliver, if you could be so kind as to accept our offer of $50 CASH per toz, that would help us out a lot, and represents a cash offer thats about 8 dollars over settlement.....but if you decide to NOT to accept this generous offer, we might just default, and you will be an "unsecured creditor", LAST in line".

Now, this might or might not be true, i read of it, in two seperate places, so?....but i would assume i;d be getting similar letters and calls, from people who have battalions of lawyers....however, "threats", whether implicit or explicit, wouldn't have the desired effect on me, they would assume, which would be pliability, Threats would illicit a response OPPOSITE to "pliability".

my endgame would be to sell to the same firms that fab planchets to the mint,,,or to firms, that fabricate product for sale to high tech, just as long as i was trading those 1,000 toz "bars" at a PREMIUM, not at a discount....dribbling them out, not "dump


i dont play chess, but i understand game theory, which would be to "play" 6 to 10 moves forward.........i do believe that this all would be taxed as cap gains.....15%...or 20%, if it was raised in this last go around.

[neilgin1]

Neil:

How do you determine the Buy price for the Raptor Fund purchases?

hey John, certainly, if you look above, i had a price order in to buy 200 March 13 Silver at 28.99....the low at the time was 29.00.

next time i looked the new low was 28.92, which would mean that a buy order for 200 at 28.99 would have been filled, so ......


Bot 200 SIH13 @ 28.99

total longs---1100 March 13 Silver

John, when i "buy at the market"...in this paper trading exercise, i go two ticks out,,,,,i write it out, than watch the board trade, wait for tick to trade, then the second tick is where i "buy"...even though its "paper trading", i'm trying to make it as real as possible..

Neil:

I get how you arrived at the Bot. price @ $28.99. What I want to know is how did you decide to place the buy order @ $28.99. Crystal ball? logarithm computer program? Gut feeling? I'm open to whatever it is but curious minds want to know!

since its just paper trading, and i want to make it real as real can be......the market was trading 29.07-08, with a low of 29.00, and if i walked away from the screen, i wanted to be sure it would be "filled"....if the "new" low turned out to be 28.99, i couldnt "say" i was filled...it would have to trade 28.98 or lower...

as far as a "system"...its all gut, meaning i've spent ten of thousands of hours, just watching a market trade...watching it tick....after a while, the way a market ticks can tell you a lot...i also do give quick scans to daily, weekly and monthly bar charts for all futures markets,,,,to me, its fun, entertaining, but i'm weird.

[johnbrickner]

as far as a "system"...its all gut, meaning i've spent ten of thousands of hours, just watching a market trade...watching it tick....after a while, the way a market ticks can tell you a lot...i also do give quick scans to daily, weekly and monthly bar charts for all futures markets,,,,to me, its fun, entertaining, but i'm weird.

Thank you Neil. That is exactly what I was looking for. As far as weird? I don't think so at all. Every map tells a story. Every chart is a map. Most of the time, there is a pattern in the data. But, what pattern do you "see" compared to what I see (remember the movie "A Beautiful Mind")?

I've been doing this with my son since he was 3 (ten years ago). I've discovered since he has no knowledge of technical charting he "sees" other patterns than I. Won't be long 'till he has a handle on the math and computer skills to put up a fibbonacchi type algorithm trading program (I have a long-term time frame here so how long is long, is my subjective opinion).

I know this sounds a bit convoluted but, thank you Neil. I woke up yesterday at 4:30 AM to find you howling thru a megaphone at British elite for about an hour. I went back and followed your thoughts 'till the sun came up. Can't understand how I missed this on it's original post. I greatly appreciate you having freely shared with me the opportunity to see your world thru your eyes.

[silverflake]

neilgin1 and my other realcent friends, I read a book a couple of years back which portrayed a situation similar to what you are doing here with your paper trading. It was called "Full Faith and Credit" by Jim Cook who owns Investment Rarities, a gold and silver dealer in Minnesota. Anyhow, it was about a futures trader who sniffs the coming financial tides turning and starts building a position in the gold market. I won't give the story away, but not only is it about the main characters experience with the markets themselves, but as his trade moves in his favor and he starts showing big profits, the book delves into the atmosphere of envy that pervades the U.S. and the world right now anytime some one takes a risk and becomes successful. Good fictional book about investing, psychology, economics and politics. Right up our alley.

By the way, I would love an autographed copy of your book! My choice for title: "My Stack's Bigger Than Yours..."

Keep stacking gang.

[beauanderos]

neilgin1 and my other realcent friends, I read a book a couple of years back which portrayed a situation similar to what you are doing here with your paper trading. It was called "Full Faith and Credit" by Jim Cook who owns Investment Rarities, a gold and silver dealer in Minnesota. Anyhow, it was about a futures trader who sniffs the coming financial tides turning and starts building a position in the gold market. I won't give the story away, but not only is it about the main characters experience with the markets themselves, but as his trade moves in his favor and he starts showing big profits, the book delves into the atmosphere of envy that pervades the U.S. and the world right now anytime some one takes a risk and becomes successful. Good fictional book about investing, psychology, economics and politics. Right up our alley.

By the way, I would love an autographed copy of your book! My choice for title: "My Stack's Bigger Than Yours..."

Keep stacking gang.

I enjoyed that book several years ago, but couldn't recall the title. Thx for reminding me... time to dig out the library card again

edit: this is not an easy book to find, out of the several library branches I have access to in six counties (more than fifty) there is only one copy... but soon it shall be in my hands again, there was no one else requesting it.

Here's an Amazon review:
This book does an awesome job of weaving and integrating an education on various arcane aspects of our economy in with a real thriller of a plot. That's, perhaps, the biggest compliment of all: since page one, I have scarcely been able to put it down.
Along the way, you will gain a fundamental understanding of commodity trading, futures, stock options, currency arbitrage, hedge funds, derivatives, inflation, deflation, the relationship between the stock markets, the housing markets, the credit markets, the GDP, and long and short term interest rates. You'll learn about the mechanism by which fiat money is created and you'll learn how debt can be monetized. You'll also learn about the distinction between the Fed and the Treasury; how they can have very different agendas.

As a first work of fiction by an author who, presumably, had a message, I was expecting the writing to be really poor and the ideas all hackneyed retreads of what I've been reading for the last two years on various websites. Instead, the writing quality is quite good and the plot is really captivating, fresh, and believable with lots of twists and turns. Strange as it sounds, the author has actually taken a very moderate approach to what is possible. Character development isn't comparable to, say, Hemmingway, but it's at least as good, imo, as what I've seen in books by authors such as John Grisham.

The first several chapters don't read so much like fiction, as we begin with the stock market and the dollar at historic highs and the social mood ebullient. Then the market begins to decline, the dollar begins to decline, gold begins to creep up, and we're off to the races.

Keeping in mind that this book was written BEFORE there was even an acknowledged bubble and published, apparently, in early 2000, let's all hope that this guy's ability to describe almost EXACTLY how the last few years have gone is merely fluke and in no way an indication that the rest of the book could ever be anything more than fiction.

I bought this along with $400 of fairly hard-core economics and accounting texts and really wasn't expecting too much. Was I ever wrong. Highly recommended. I'd like to see a mainstream publisher pick up this book and run with it. I really think it could be a best-seller.

Neil, didn't mean to derail the thread

[Slaphot]

I just bought the only copy on Ebay for $5. Looking forward to reading it.

[neilgin1]

I just bought the only copy on Ebay for $5. Looking forward to reading it.

OH MAN!!!! waaaaaa!!......1200 noon CST...just walking up.......again...read thru Messrs Brickner's post, Ray's and my next stop was Amazon...oh!! (btw, Ray, you never "derail" a thread...in fact if i'm OP, and a thread goes here or there....i think its great...thats why its called a discussion)

i want to read this book!, but i'm always afraid, if i'm writing something....and there's a similiar work in that genre?...i get afraid to read it, because one might inadvertantly pick up the same back beat....get derivative.


btw, 1226 CST and SIH13 is trading 28.50, which would represent a 1.75 mln dollar loss. for a 200 mln USD fund, standing for delievery...that might not be bad...maybe they'd want to stuff me, and give me the silver.....in that case, i guess i would keep some of it, in Exchange approved institutions, and look to redeliever later in the year, when silver's sitting at 43 dollars the ounce....lol

as far as what i'm writing, a huge influence for me was Hunter Thompson...the good part was Hunter was a gamechanger, when his pen was clear and vital?...nobody wrote like him. His curse was that HE became the story, and everybody wanted to party with "Doctor Gonzo", and he ruined his pen by over consumption of likker and dope, and then "playing" the role...INSTEAD of just writing.

In any kind of art, writing or the art of trading, one must be totally sober, the art demands it.

all that said, i'm becoming more and more convinced, that the 26 dollar support area will hold. So the Raptor Fund has 1100 cars on its "books" and tommorrow, i'll subtract openinterest to figure out, how much silver it owns. best to you all, neil

(later add...hey gang, there's like almost a 100 copies, of Full Faith and Credit by Jame Cook over at Amazon, new and used...i just bot a copy for $2 new thru an Amazon storefront seller...its there.......)

[sambo]

Neil: Just remember if you really had 1,100 contracts standing for delivery the price wouldn't be at $28.50! I would think it would be up a few million and not down.

[neilgin1]

Neil: Just remember if you really had 1,100 contracts standing for delivery the price wouldn't be at $28.50! I would think it would be up a few million and not down.

Sam...yeh, i been thinking about that...open interest right now is 1341 cars, yesterday it was at 2600 something...not all of those are deliveries...i have seen the first day of who "stopped" and who delievered....its on the exchange website.

though this is all fiction, i assume i would get some letters, ie, "would you accept cash in lieu of delievery, said cash being $29 + 2.00?"
i would instruct counsel to send a letter, informing them of their obligations, so i wont factor that in.

the tendency lately has been to go to "backwardation"...thats where the front months trade above the backs.....thats the markets way of telling you, the market wants the PHYSICAL commodity NOW...i've seen this in Crude Oil, grains, etc...its not that unusual, EXCEPT in the PM's.........for instance, i normally spread trade, thats where one simo buys one month of a commodity and shorts another month against it..for instance in Chicago wheat, i might buy May Wheat 2 cents UNDER (7.11) selling July Wheat (7.13)........this is called a bull spread, i'm looking for the wheat supply to tighten, and for May Wheat to trade over July Wheat...and if i was right, my profit would be selling the May Wheat...say 5 cents over the July Wheat......you get me? the profit would be 7 cents for a fairly low risk trade, lower margins, etc.

BUT, with the Silver, a bull spread is different, (was different).....you would be selling the May silver and buying the July against it...but since things are SO dislocated these days, i was noticing the march silver trade a tad stronger...this was probably big players, (i'm not going to "banks"...hmmm) rolling their perma shorts into the next month, which is May...prepping for the next bear raid....this will be the one where they try and test that important $26 level.

i'm gonna keeo the Raptor Fund going....300 mln net worth minus the assumption i had 1100 cars delivered.

i'll assign, what cars, and what the monies out would be. in this scenario, i would spend a mln plus, to have a pretty elite builder, construct a "safe"...a large secure facility....way way out there, to take maybe 500 of these contracts, and store them......why? i dont know, maybe i think it would be good to partner up with a fabricator and start minting rounds....or to explore the bids out there from hi-tech concerns...and the beauty part of this lil fantasy is, all inquiries would be going to the "offices" of HWS Resources Ltd, Bahamas, and the bank would be a ST Lucia bank...the other 650 (for now) would be kept in "exchange approved" (thats a laugh) facilities to either redeliever, or as time goes by, to ferry them out....coz God only knows what happens next.

[IdahoCopper]

"would you accept cash in lieu of delievery, said cash being $29 + 2.00?"

Neil - In the real market, how many cars do you think someone could get away with standing for delivery without them deciding to default and crash the market?

Would demanding $50 million in delivered silver do it, or would it take more to hit the tipping point?

[neilgin1]

"would you accept cash in lieu of delievery, said cash being $29 + 2.00?"

Neil - In the real market, how many cars do you think someone could get away with standing for delivery without them deciding to default and crash the market?

Would demanding $50 million in delivered silver do it, or would it take more to hit the tipping point?

"Idaho"....brother,

THAT, is the WHOLE QUESTION, or REASON why i started this fictional exercise, what you just asked above!!

and i dont know!

what got my ears perked up happened almost two years ago, when we were headed to that high of $50...you remember that. i had read tales of back door offers to make "longs" wanting the actual silver to go away and do it quietly. i just went and found a bunch of links from the time, and i'll post them , read them if you could be so kind, tell me what you think.

why do you think, in my little tale, one of the first things i do, is hire a 6 man security detail? and all Brit at that?.....coz i'm overly paranoid?....some may say "yeh, you're a nut"......know what? here's whats nutz, a piece of legislation that gives the pr#sid#nt the "legal" authority to "duhrone" kill ANYBODY on a "l#st"...thats nutz!....and further adding to the list of whats nutz is MANY of the people who supported him, i'm talking white "modern" liberals. (i'm a classical liberal, otherwise known as a "libertarian", just like R#n Pa#l) white modern liberals, who scream bloody murder about ass#ult ri@les, vehemently anti-2nd amendment, but say NOTHING about this "k#ll list"...where the executive doesnt need ANY PUBLIC FINDING, to put American citizens on it, except that they are deemed a "threat". For farks sake, even Bob Woodward, who exposed Tricky Dick Nixon, was just given a public veiled 'threat' by Gene Sperling for Woodwards 'sin' of accusing the Prz of moving the goalposts on the opposition by new proposing new revenue raisers, in a recent commentary...here's a real good recap of that CF http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kathleen-parker-the-obama-white-house-threat-to-bob-woodward-matters/2013/03/01/f5d36d5e-82b3-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_story.html

now my fictional 1100 car position, standing for delivery would be 5.5 mln troy ounces, at the cost of roughly $160 mln. would this be a tipping point?.....maybe. just look at our US Mint, Jan 2013...after selling 6 mln plus toz pieces, they "run" out....its true that an unminted silver planchet is not something you can buy at Wal mart, but didnt the sneaker genius's at the Mint anticipate this?...obviously not, but it underline financial fragility, doesnt it?

one could ask, "why you want to start trouble?".....why would somebody with a net worth of 300 mln USD, a tad nervous about where to park such assets without the REAL fear of losing it all, be considered "starting trouble" by buying 5.5 mln ounces of silver from the futures market? Isnt that WHY they exist?...or DO THEY? thats the REAL QUESTION.

and as long as man like Jon Corzine, who imploded a once storied, once rock solid, old line Brit trading house, EF Mann...now MF Global, for 1.6 bln , "trading" segregated customer funds....walks free, and even has the arrogance to propose a "new fund"...the answer is REALLY CLEAR...up is down, and white is black.

so much so, that in my fictional "Fund", i would considered a reckless moron, if i didnt hole up on a private Carib island, with a security detail, banking off shore, NOT to tax dodge (that isnt me..remember Romans 13) but so that i wasnt screwed over, and setting up multiple LLC's and companies...and i would have to do this all because i wanted to secure my families resources, by purchasing 5.5 mln troy ounces of silver, on the futures exchange?

if that's the case,. what have we come to?...as a nation?

now here's some of the links to boards and stories about the what might have taken place as individuals and funds endeavoured to take delivery of exchange traded silver contracts:

this is very concise article from March 2011 on how some "Raptors" were paid to go away:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26741.html

there are links embedded in the above article...i also found a bunch of other popular PM boards, where the OP quoted the above article...if you want me to link those, lemme know, except all i have to say is "God bless RC and the people here", because other boards, the level of discourse and the way folks hammer at one another....abysmal....if i ever MYSELF, sink to such a level, i pray the mod's bar me forever,,,this forum and the feeling of lifting one another up, is a rarity to be treasured and defended, neil

[IdahoCopper]

In the futures market, can you pay 100% of the contract, instead of playing the margins? For example $50M @ $30/oz would buy 1,666,666 ounces. Since they are 100% paid, it seems they must deliver.

[IdahoCopper]

I guess we won't know if $50M will do it. My lotto ticket again failed to win. Next Wednesday, Powerball is $78M cash value.

[neilgin1]

"Stopped" , filed to take delivery on 500 cars bot on 25 Fen 2013

50 cars bot at 29.11 ----250,000 toz- $7,277,500.00
50 cars bot at 29.13-----250,000 toz- $7,282,500.00
200 cars bot at $29.05---1,000,000 toz $29,500,000.00
50 cars bot at 29.02----250,000 toz $7,255,000.00
100 cars bot at 29.00----500,000 toz $14,500,000.00
50 cars bot at $28.97----250,000 toz $7,242,500.00

receipts total 2.5 mln toz ---$73,057,500.00

4 Mar 2013 0540 CST

Bot 100 SIK13 (May 13 Silver) at 28.74

orders resting:

Buy 100 SIK13 @28.45
Buy 100 SIK13 @28.25
Buy 100 SIK13 @27.99

all "GTC" (Good Till Cancelled)

(later add) Bot 500 MWZ13 +30 over selling 500 KWZ13 ---MWZ13 @8.13/KWZ13 @ 7.83 at 0550 CST

(MWZ13 is Dec 13 Minneapolis Wheat......KWZ13 is Dec 13 KC Wheat. Minneapolis Wheat is Dark Red Northern SPRING Wheat, KC Wheat is Hard Red Winter Wheat....hey, there's other thing besides silver, gotta eat, and there's some nice snow covering the winter wheat areas, while the Spring Wheat hasnt even been planted...just saying....30 cents over? I'll buy it, its an acceptable risk...objective? 75 cents to $1.00 over)