Any economists out there?

[Mossy]

50cent, ever read a spy story where they go into double and triple think? "They are going to expect us to do this and they know we know, but they know we know they know we know so we logically should do that, but they know we know they know we know..."

The finacial experts are trying to out think/trick/maneuver each other, the big money is trying to out think/trick/maneuver each other, the bigger money is trying to out think/trick/maneuver each other and everyone smaller than them...

The economy is like a rag caught in a ten way tug of war between a bunch of dogs, with a few "dogs" being horses pretending to not be involved.

[slara512]

50cent, ever read a spy story where they go into double and triple think? "They are going to expect us to do this and they know we know, but they know we know they know we know so we logically should do that, but they know we know they know we know...".

good observation and analogy, and it rings even more true when you factor in the different time frames of investors (day trader, shot term, long term, forever) and also who pays their salaries. Some analysts want to say bearish things, for example, but can't because they are mutual fund company analyst that really only makes money when the market goes up.

When I worked at brokerage wirehouse whose name rhymes with "ferrel Inch", I remember our top dog analyst would only say he "liked treasuries a lot" when later on he admitted he thought the market was going to collapse but he was limited to saying things in fear of scaring the clients out of their long only investments. I really don't think its the analyst's job to predict the market for EVERYONE, just for whom they get paid from.

[neilgin1]

50cent, ever read a spy story where they go into double and triple think? "They are going to expect us to do this and they know we know, but they know we know they know we know so we logically should do that, but they know we know they know we know...".

good observation and analogy, and it rings even more true when you factor in the different time frames of investors (day trader, shot term, long term, forever) and also who pays their salaries. Some analysts want to say bearish things, for example, but can't because they are mutual fund company analyst that really only makes money when the market goes up.

When I worked at brokerage wirehouse whose name rhymes with "ferrel Inch", I remember our top dog analyst would only say he "liked treasuries a lot" when later on he admitted he thought the market was going to collapse but he was limited to saying things in fear of scaring the clients out of their long only investments. I really don't think its the analyst's job to predict the market for EVERYONE, just for whom they get paid from.

love it! yer old skool, havent the word "wirehouse" used since 91, welcome friend, neil

[slara512]

no skool like the old skool.

thanks for the welcome Neil.

if Im not mistaken, it used to be that stockbrokerage houses were "wired" together for quotes. now, they have connections in case power/phones/internet go down. But Ive seen many smaller brokerages' offices that don't have that emergency readiness as far as the "wirehouse" readiness.

one thing that doesn't change over time is our ECONOMIST and Forecasters because of human nature. They are subject to the input in their models and human behavior from out emotions. I have read through pre 1929 stock market crash and publications from within the period around it and really doesn't sound much better or worse than what we get now. Its the same reason the market can't be predicted, you can't predict all of the economic factors, emotions and behaviors of the market participants; only the market can price that.