Ebay musings-16 April 2012

[neilgin1]

Brothers, i had wrote to Raymundo some thoughts, on that other thread, and thought it best to maybe cut, paste and add:

"and yet it seems to me, when i halted stacking in Oct 11, that Ag is in a holding pattern, futures wise, and maybe physical silver as well, but two things i been noticing on Ebay, (i know, i know Raymundo) but first, the phony sellers, "rolls of possible silver", or rolls with a cull Merc on one end and a wheat on the other have just proliferated like cockroaches in a tenement kitchen...and the second thing i noticed, is just in the last month, i been seeing a LOT of beauty rolls, stuff like 54 Franklin GEM/BU's, been noticing a FEW more 64 Kennedys, called BU's, but if you look close, they'd be lucky to grade at 60...no blast whites.

i seen a bunch of Mercury's in solid state years, 1941-1945, GEM-BU's, just salivating over these and i watch them trade to 35 to 50X's over, which translates to 70 to 100 times over, and it kills me, coz i WANT these rolls, but i dont want to wrapped up in a nusimatic frenzy. You said yourself to me, that what i been doing is threading the needle between intrinsic and nusimatic".

i noticed some other things about the Ag ROLL trade on Ebay; one of the big ones is , NOTHING's PREDICTABLE, meaning the plethora of GEM/BU Morgan solid date rolls are far and few between, ASE rolls on open auction, far and few between.

i have a set amount of FRN's, like all of us. before Nov 12, i want to beef up my lead stockpile, and definitely want to get one more, maybe two, shortguns...that take FRNS, i been zeroing out my credit card debt, big time...all that takes FRN's...we all been been doing this, and to my bro's on here, that are hard pressed in this economic climate, my heart goes out to you, it really does.

When i see some of the choice rolls on Ebay...man! there is some REAL bidding going on, guys are paying 30 times plus and not even batting an eye. Sometimes, i think...okay.......we can look at the late 2008/early 2009 period, Ag trades down to 9 on the board, and i think, what if Spain, or whatever euro-sewer craters, and EVERYTHING trades off, trades lower?

obviously we buy with both hands, its the right thing to do. BUT, what if, Ag doesnt budge, or just trades low 20's this time? , and the physical just trades off a wee bit, meaning the premium between the "board", (which is a bad joke) and physical stretches further?

almost like in those countries, where the govt set exchange fiat rate, and the street exchange fiat rate are miles apart...know what i mean?....could we see physical $10 over....$15 over....dont tell me it cant happen.

point being, we have to stack and stack more, as our purse allows, and i say that, because have you noticed how the main stream financial media trash talks PM's?....and you guys KNOW this, but whatever the MSM downtalks, thats the BUY.

the timing of it all?...holy smokes, everybody, meaning some "prepper" forums i watched, think the whole shebang is ending tommorrow, but i'm telling you, with duct tape and bailing wire these "folks" in "leadership" could keep this farce going till 2015-2017....serious...or it COULD all implode 4th quarter 12, or 2013......timing is veritably IMPOSSIBLE...in my wee 30 years in the markets, i have NEVER seen anything like this, all the guys i grew up, are OUT....done!

the only reason the tape, the NYSE, NASDAQ, SnP are sitting at these levels is all that TARP money, with crazy kids, sitting at algo buttons, ready to rock n roll...i'm sure you guys know this, but the really crazy thing is stock market volumne is down 50% over a year ago. a "bull market" going higher on 50% less volumne?

TO ME, the ONLY answer is PM's , stacked and stocked, at your cave, period. Rural land, rural home, woods and water and protein, its the only way to go, im my opinion. and NOT out of fear. getting the fear contagion, like i see on these "prepper" sites can be LETHAL for the soul. "They" LIVE to prep....its their LIFE, and that is NO life.

in conclusion, i stand by what i always said, Ag, first stop $130....then next up, will be a shotgun band between $250-400....the timing?
Ag is NOT an "investment", its currency insurance.

i aint the oracle at Delphi, i'm just neil

[68Camaro]

Yes, the timing cannot be predicted, only the trend and the outcome. We are already in an unstable position, and as time goes on that instabilty increases. What will eventually tip it over is limited to a few things we could all list (a new war, local collapse somewhere, bank failure, market collapse, non-government T-bill auction failure, pandemic, etc). But the when - on man-made items, that could be tomorrow, or 2-5 years. (It doesn't seem sustainable past 2015, but like you I'll tack on another couple years just to give TPTB credit.)

Yes, the decreasing market volume seems telling.