ALL ABOARD - THE SILVER TRAIN IS MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND!!

[Thogey]

I still can't believe the tenor of this thread.

You guys are too smart.

Reminds me of big shot speculators, who keep burying the common man/investor with a bunch of trading regimens and add value to nothing.

You go ahead, keep gambling, trading paper.

A better philosophy, live and work. The silver is merely an instrument to preserve the value of your work.

Don't get so damn excited/or disappointed.

I'll buy it, bank it, and sell it if I need to redeem the value of my work. These markets cannot be predicted or played, except by the powers who are real players.

I'd rather get into a craps game. I know the odds there.

Meanwhile, some sage advice to you all: Live and work (hard and smart) live below your means, and invest the difference, (silver is a smart way to store the value of your time).

I could care less where the silver market goes. It will never be worth zero, its just an alternative to paper (until the time you go to your real reward)

[Rodebaugh]

Solid post man.

Nothing like a good dose of that ol' protestant work ethic.

[aristobolus]

This is why I don't like to advertise my age. Many associate age with maturity, and that is not the case. To clear things up, yes, I am 15 I am a sophomore. I lead a normal teenager life, and no one knows of my activities besides my close family.
To answer your question Preserving the Past, the stock is in my father's name.
I tried at first to not direct my posts at any one specific poster to prevent altercations and keep it a friendly debate, yet that attempt seemed to have failed.

Supply and demand were never taken out of the equation. Suppose that the supply and demand factor alone on asset price equals a hypothetical x, and all other factors on the asset price stood for x^+z(X to the +Z Power). The asset price of silver equals a hypothetical y.

The equation is not ruling out supply and demand. The equation is showing that other factors currently have more of an effect on the asset price.

If anyone is very familiar with put options, I would like to clarify that I was not hedging against my investment in HL. Both were put options. I did not want to come out and state the monetary value of my positions, so I stated that the capital originally invested in AGQ was 150% of that in HL puts. Neither was a hedge; both will increase in price as silver falls. As foolish as I am, I saw a 40% increase in my invested capital today in IRE, AIB, HL, AGQ. Buying options near expiration makes them cheaper and more volatile(which increases the risk, yet also the reward seen today.) Nevertheless, I was happy with such large gains and sold 1/2 of my position.

Many members here are very intelligent(two come to mind). I feel that it is inappropriate to chastise others in a friendly debate. And for what? Taking risk that some are not accustomed to, and when silver tanks try to discredit them, based on trivial things such as age. You do not magically grow more intelligent solely based on "your number of candles." This type of intelligence is formed through study. Whether or not I start my research earlier than the majority does not mean that I should be discredited when my predictions come to fruition. I never claimed to know any more than any member here on Realcent, and will not do so.

I will also not be responding to any more posts directly as I do not want friendly debate to turn into heated argument.

To be "Clear":
Prediction: Silver will fall even more in price. Five years silver will be up from where it is now. We may trade in a range for 2-3 years. We will not see Hunt's brothers silver levels for many years.
Position(in order of size): AGQ puts, HL puts(will most likely sell for a small loss), IRE LEAPS, AIB LEAPS, RIG, CSCO, JNJ, AMT.

Here is an updated chart of SLV:

Very well thought out positions...except there are numerous geo-political exigencies that could mitigate against this scenario. North Korea is now testing us all as it has not before by shelling not just military but civilian targets. Iran is not backing down. WMD's are out there...it is just a matter of time before we, or someone else are attacked in a big way. I could go on and on. Our times do not fit well in historical perspective, parallels may be drawn; but we are in fast forward- or possibly even "FlashForward". Lord have mercy.

My trust is not in gold or silver; it lies elsewhere. But as a medium of exchange or value these PM's are time-tested and true.

All the best.

[beauanderos]

Very well thought out positions...except there are numerous geo-political exigencies that could mitigate against this scenario. North Korea is now testing us all as it has not before by shelling not just military but civilian targets. Iran is not backing down. WMD's are out there...it is just a matter of time before we, or someone else are attacked in a big way. I could go on and on. Our times do not fit well in historical perspective, parallels may be drawn; but we are in fast forward- or possibly even "FlashForward". Lord have mercy.

My trust is not in gold or silver; it lies elsewhere. But as a medium of exchange or value these PM's are time-tested and true.

All the best.

Well stated. There are two infallible safe havens. One is physical, the other spiritual. Place your faith in both.

[Roadrunner]

I think the train just crashed...Silver at $28 and falling fast...

[tebam11]

Has anything fundamentaly changed?

Thats the question coming to my mind. The things I supposed were taking the price higher are still in place. Unless a cat is still in a bag somewhere, this is just a shake.

[DirtyFingers]

Bond yields and the dollar index started putting pressure on stocks a couple of hours before close yesterday. Everything is being pushed down right now. It won't last long....it never does. I just look at it as another buy op. Makes me clench my stash that much tighter.

DF

[slickeast]

My guess, it will drop to around $27 by the end of the month , then play with $32 in Feb 2011.

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

Well, I tired for about an hour to post this graph onto this comment. I don't know how to do it. If you would like to look at my altered Kitco chart, look here:C:\Documents and Settings\Sussie\My Documents\My Pictures\2010-12-07, silver_12.

I hope you can see it. If not, it is easy to make you own. Print out the latest Kitco 10 year Silver chart.

If you look at the chart, you will see that there are three price spikes that happened roughly 24 months apart. They are Spring of '04, '06, & '08. All three touch a straight line. The line progresses on up off the upper right corner of the chart. The latest $30.00 price spike, although about 8-9 months late to the party, lands exactly upon that line! What does it mean? Maybe it means price manipulation, maybe not. I also think it means the price is about to fall down to the lower price support line that touches the bottoms of all dips from Nov. '08 to Oct.'10. Another manipulation? Maybe.

I amateurishly predict that the price will drop until it reaches the price dip line drawn from the dips from Nov. '08 to Oct.'10. Any price below that line is a steal!

Then guess what? It will not be the end of the world... the price will go back up!

Off topic, but I gotta ask... Stateofmind, were you also known as "Sensual Lettuce" from the old site? That was wild.

[BamaJoe]

Theogey nailed it folks. I really get amused over some of the posts on threads like this. Alot of panic and running around in circles over a 5% or 10% drop. I could care less because I'm a Buy and Bury type of stacker. I have just as much faith in the silver I bought at $25 as I do the silver I bought at less than $5. This drop is like any other - just a chance to buy silver cheaper.

To those that have been around the block a time or two it's nothing new. Off the top of my head to name a few: The 30% drop in April-May 2004, The 25% or so drop in May-June 2006, and of course the 50% drop from March to Nov. of 2008. Guess what, silver is higher right now after the "bloodletting" of the last day than it was at its high back then and it will still be even if it drops another 20%.

Don't sweat the small stuff folks. Learn to take a longer perspective than 48 hours. I really don't care what the pm price does today, next week or next month. I do know that unless we have a radical change in DC it has no where to go but up in the long run.

[beauanderos]

Don't sweat the small stuff folks. Learn to take a longer perspective than 48 hours. I really don't care what the pm price does today, next week or next month. I do know that unless we have a radical change in DC it has no where to go but up in the long run.

The younger you are, the more such an adage holds true. There is nowhere but up for precious metals to head eventually. The moaning and groaning you might hear (I haven't seen anyone posting in panic mode) is probably just us older guys hoping to retire sooner rather than later, who might have quite a bit invested... and, of course, temporary drops are disappointing... especially as they usually follow exhilirating ascents to new heights. If you're an older feeb like me, it would be nice to live to experience the price explosion we've always anticipated, rather than die knowing we made all the right moves, but the time frame was wrong. Use these pullbacks as buying opportunities, I sold some SVM today and bought SWC and PAL. I will say one thing... watching the markets closely is mentally exhausting. It's a relief once in awhile to just back away and quit watching every blip, and trust that things will work out favorably in the end.

[BamaJoe]

Hey Beauanderos - you're making yourself out to be 103 years old, pulling around an O2 tank and one foot in the grave.

Come on, you can't be THAT old. PM's will get there - you and I both know it. My personal time frame is about 7 years and I'll be back in the PI permanently at my place on the beach spending my days sipping a cool one and watching the cute girls play in the surf.

Now, have the wife dress up in a chearleader outfit (or whatever floats your boat), throw back a couple, take a little blue pill and have some fun tonight. That will show you that age is only a state of mind - works for me.

PS: If any of you other guys need advice on dealing with stress, feeling old and tired, the pressures of life, etc. just give me a shout and Dr. BamaJoe will be happy to help you out. Of course, ALL my advice will be along the lines of what I suggested to Beauanderos.

[beauanderos]

Hey Beauanderos - you're making yourself out to be 103 years old, pulling around an O2 tank and one foot in the grave.

Is Thogey your mentor? 59 is ancient, bro.

[stateofmind]

Taking a pretty big loss today in what puts I had remaining in AGQ and HL, but this is mitigated by AIB and IRE. On Friday I had made a total of 55% off my investment, so I puts equivalent to the original capital as insurance, so I would break even no matter what happens...
I still think silver is overvalued but in the short term it could head higher.

20 day moving average(blue line) is the support for this trend...
Force index is growing negative...
If we fall below the support line than we could easily see a 20% correction($24)

For now, I'm out of the silver market(except for the puts in HL and AGQ that I bought with profit).
Positions(In order of size): Johnson & Johnson, Cisco, Transocean, Ford LEAPS, Bank of Ireland Options, Allied Irish Banks Options, Hecla Puts, Silver 3x ETF(AGQ) Puts.

[Rosco]

Spot now is $29.50 an that is what I bought at last week So I'm good I can handle the ride seeing them in the past SOM is correct chronological age doesn't bring wisdom But can allow for perspective. Age 73 and still buying as I started late Never all in in one thing is also a good plan.