Gold Below $1000

[Jonflyfish]

Yea, that is how I took JFF's response to me. An market trading expert with a technical model expressing his general conclusions. So I just take it as another voice out there like any of the other economic professionals who express their opinion. Usually they throw in a little something more concrete without giving away their whole system though which I find more interesting.

Thanks friend. I don't consider myself an "expert" per se. Taking the opinion as another voice out there is a good idea. I see many folks here offer opinions and idea yet no demands for "evidence" for their freely shared musings. The market is the ultimate arbiter. Price is truth. I let that be the judge.

Cheers!

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

Yea, that is how I took JFF's response to me. An market trading expert with a technical model expressing his general conclusions. So I just take it as another voice out there like any of the other economic professionals who express their opinion. Usually they throw in a little something more concrete without giving away their whole system though which I find more interesting.

Maybe this chart I found will help explain where gold is headed.

[Country]

USD very weak today; getting CRUSHED at (81.11) down 1.43. GOLD going higher at 1416. I can't remember when the USD fell like this! Perhaps, a sentiment change is coming. Perhaps, GOLD is going to go much higher. I could be wrong, but we'll just see where the money flow takes us.

[InfleXion]

Can gold drop below $1000? Sure. I don't think it will, but it could. The dollar will probably keep getting stronger compared to other weakening currencies due to world reserve currency status (while it lasts), but that may or may not impact gold since the actual buying power of the dollar is getting weaker each month because of QE, however due to that QE money being stagnant it is lowering the velocity of money and creating price deflation even while there is monetary inflation.

Central banks became net buyers of gold for the first time in around 40 years in 2009. China's gold demand is still breaking new records and has been for a few years. They already have bilateral agreements with Brazil, Russia, Australia, and others and could end the dollar's world reserve currency status any time they want to, but for now they are still in accumulation mode and are likely happy to buy it on the cheap. After the accumulation phase is over it will be a new ball game.

[Copper Member]

I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

Geeezzz...... here we go again!

As I understand it, JFF makes his living from the futures market. He gets PAID for his expertise by CLIENTS who use his models for their financial gain. If you want to know all he has to offer, then HIRE HIM!

It is wrong for several of you to demand JFF produce his intellectual product without your paying for it.

If you don't like what JFF has to say, then start your own damn thread and leave him alone. Enough!

EDIT: I over-stated my sentiment. Country said it better than me. Keep it civil, please.

No one is certainly gonna pay for his "predictions" here!!!!!

[inflationhawk]

I paid for it in wasted time. Overpaid at that. I'll know to ignore in the future, thanks for the reminder SYBT. I found a better modeler anyway on another thread.

[Jonflyfish]

I paid for it in wasted time. Overpaid at that. I'll know to ignore in the future, thanks for the reminder SYBT. I found a better modeler anyway on another thread.

Not to worry. I don't post many trades (not even a fraction at that) or musings here. There is no concern of any subscription since I don't/can't offer such anyway. Good luck with your "modeler".
You can choose to ignore or consider any post of mine just like any other, including your own.
Cheers!

[Jonflyfish]

I'm shocked that anyone finds doublespeak and reference to 'models' that aren't provided useful at all. Being diversified I wouldn't mind a further drop in PMs, but I find predictions, oh excuse me, price targets, with no supporting evidence useless. I keep waiting for something useful thinking eventually it will be posted, but alas I only find doublespeak, fear mongering and hyperbole. And comparisons to the weather??!?

Geeezzz...... here we go again!

As I understand it, JFF makes his living from the futures market. He gets PAID for his expertise by CLIENTS who use his models for their financial gain. If you want to know all he has to offer, then HIRE HIM!

It is wrong for several of you to demand JFF produce his intellectual product without your paying for it.

If you don't like what JFF has to say, then start your own damn thread and leave him alone. Enough!

EDIT: I over-stated my sentiment. Country said it better than me. Keep it civil, please.

No one is certainly gonna pay for his "predictions" here!!!!!

Yipeeeeee!!!!!!!! Since I don't predict nor offer any paid service for that I would agree. Nobody here will because they can't.

Beat to you as always.
Cheers!

[neilgin1]

[Country]

Let the conversation be respectful. Focus on the thoughts, ideas, and concepts.

[Jonflyfish]

Let the conversation be respectful. Focus on the thoughts, ideas, and concepts.

+1 friend. I won't let the poor influence of others bait me into playing their silly counterproductive game again on this forum. People here deserve more than that nonsense.

Cheers!

[neilgin1]

Let the conversation be respectful. Focus on the thoughts, ideas, and concepts.

Country, I agree with the premise of the OP, global equity markets are train wrecks, Nikkei's already down 20%...illiquidity driven, check out an MV chart, monetary velocity....its a spike down chart. the obscure Lumber futures market is the new canary in the coal mine, much like the Baltic Dry Index was in 2008, check out THAT chart, couple months ago, we were at $400 the thousand feet, last I looked, it was 300 and sinking fast.....and sometime 3rd quarter this year, we have a "Lehman" moment.....equities freeze up, and will drag PM futures prices , gold below a 1000, and silver below 15....I agree with the OP. I just thought the baby was cute, he's got poo poo in his diapers and is throwing a heck of a tantrum.

sometimes they do that, they cant help it, they're babies.

all the best mate!

AND...here's a lovely song, one of my ABSOLUTE favorites, back when this nation wasn't so polluted with scumbags:

[inflationhawk]

I agree with the premise of the OP, global equity markets are train wrecks, Nikkei's already down 20%...illiquidity driven, check out an MV chart, monetary velocity....its a spike down chart. the obscure Lumber futures market is the new canary in the coal mine, much like the Baltic Dry Index was in 2008, check out THAT chart, couple months ago, we were at $400 the thousand feet, last I looked, it was 300 and sinking fast.....and sometime 3rd quarter this year, we have a "Lehman" moment.....equities freeze up, and will drag PM futures prices , gold below a 1000, and silver below 15....I agree with the OP.

Thanks Neil for this contribution, this puts some real meat behind the prediction, oops, I mean price target. Monetary velocity is definitely something I keep my eye on as it is the best rationale for why inflation has not reared its ugly head in the face of all this money printing. Ben hasn't been able to print fast enough to offset the declining velocity of money and likewise I suspect he won't be able to pull money out of the system fast enough once the velocity reverses.

The lumber futures are something I just caught wind of the last day or two which surprised me with all the talk of a strengthening home market. Home values have definitely been on the upswing these past several months.

Again, thank you for adding something valuable to the thread. I'm shocked, but I've found something useful and thought provoking on this thread after all.

[CLINT-THE-GREAT]

Good thread, I like it much better. The wager adds some fun too.
Thanks guys!

Yeah, I love it when there is a wager and I don't have to lose any of my ASE's to witness it!!!!

-The Great

[Engineer]

The lumber futures are something I just caught wind of the last day or two which surprised me with all the talk of a strengthening home market. Home values have definitely been on the upswing these past several months.

If only the top 10% have been building, new home prices would look better than if the top 50% had been building. Dig a little deeper, and lumber prices let you know that although new home inflation is present, new home velocity leaves something to be desired.

[Jonflyfish]

Good thread, I like it much better. The wager adds some fun too.
Thanks guys!

Yeah, I love it when there is a wager and I don't have to lose any of my ASE's to witness it!!!!

-The Great

It's a token of friendly gesture. Happy to oblige. All odds are against the wager offered and something very specific has to happen for an even payout. But. I'm fine with that.
Cheers!

[adagirl]

The spot price and market are manipulated. Stay calm, hold your physical, and buy when you can. If it dips below $1000 buy more. If they set the price of gold at $0.00, would anyone on this site think/feel their holdings were worthless?

[Jonflyfish]

The spot price and market are manipulated. Stay calm, hold your physical, and buy when you can. If it dips below $1000 buy more. If they set the price of gold at $0.00, would anyone on this site think/feel their holdings were worthless?

"Worthless" no.
"Worth less" yes.
Saying pm's are manipulated with nothing more than anecdotal evidence at best, because someone else said so when things didn't go there way and pounding their chest when it does is self-defeating. And to invest in something that you think is being manipulated (presumably against you) is reckless. If, as some here have been touting for years, the markets are manipulated (again there is only anecdotal credibility at best) then it can be manipulated in perpetuity.
For those who know better, the markets have been very liquid and tradable. To your point, however, dealers do want you to buy when you can. They will tell you many sell-side reasons as to why it's better to hold physical than paper. And when you are convinced, watch how theirs eyes light up when you line up the greenbacks on the counter for payment.

Cheers!