Investor Sentiment During Market Cycles

[beauanderos]

Some good information included in the following link: http://www.investmentu.com/2011/April/p ... more-19331

[68Camaro]

Some good information included in the following link: http://www.investmentu.com/2011/April/p ... more-19331

That's hilarious, but true

[beauanderos]

Bump. Now does this chart make more sense?

[hejira11]

I understand there are a fair number of new investors in precious metals, but I am 43, and there was a TOTAL LACK of money education taught to me in school. Only when I opened a private IRA were the highs and lows of the market and the basic fundamentals explained to me. NO ONE THAT HAS SOLD ME SILVER HAS EVER TRIED TO EDUCATE ME. That may explain some of the trepidation we are seeing.

Looking back to my experience opening that IRA I was with the rep for nearly an hour. I was given a 20 question (or so) test to measure my risk aversion. I came out with a score of "HIGH tolerance for risk." I was explained the fundamentals of high risk/reward ventures, was sold "Growth" funds and was sent on my way. I think we all should go online and google a test like this to see where we are. And gird your loins accordingly. (if you are not aware of your temperment to things like this)

I do not know how to teach patience or high tolerance for risk. I firmly believe from EVERYTHING I have read and seen in the news that the fundamentals for Precious metals are screaming for signifigant gains in the long term.

My money is where my mouth is.

[Mossy]

"Home economics" used to include book keeping, I understand. By the time I was in HS, it was all cooking, and girls only (never mind boys need to learn some basic cooking skills as well).

I did not learn to balance a check book until college.

So, exactly why is it that college kids get into trouble when they get their first credit card?

[glass]

I giggled

[68Camaro]

Here's to hoping we're past capitulation and at despondancy, rather than at a brief rest from fear and desperation before further slide to an even further lower level of panic and final capitulation. I'm fine with being at despondancy at this level for a period of time, and a more measured rise back up into the upper 30s and 40s.

[beauanderos]

I think da boyz will leave silver alone and be satisfied to provide the slower fuel for the fire as they gradually cover their shorts while the small public buyers are scared away. The price climb this time will be more subdued, since they continue to "manage" it, but will begin to accelerate again once $40 is broken again. They will let the little silver bugs rush to the precipice of near $50 again, before they push them over the cliff lemmings-style. They want to imbue in the public perception with no doubt, that $50 is an insurmountable obstacle. Even if the next price rise is "non-parabolic" they'll find some justification for bad-mouthing it as they spread disinformation via the talking heads.

[hejira11]

I think da boyz will leave silver alone and be satisfied to provide the slower fuel for the fire as they gradually cover their shorts while the small public buyers are scared away. The price climb this time will be more subdued, since they continue to "manage" it, but will begin to accelerate again once $40 is broken again. They will let the little silver bugs rush to the precipice of near $50 again, before they push them over the cliff lemmings-style. They want to imbue in the public perception with no doubt, that $50 is an insurmountable obstacle. Even if the next price rise is "non-parabolic" they'll find some justification for bad-mouthing it as they spread disinformation via the talking heads.

What are the chances that da boyz have learned their lesson, are backing all their shorts with physical and will end their manipulation and move onto another commodity?

[TXBullion]

that term da boyz is too funny

[Sheikh_yer_Bu'Tay]

"Home economics" used to include book keeping, I understand. By the time I was in HS, it was all cooking, and girls only (never mind boys need to learn some basic cooking skills as well).

I did not learn to balance a check book until college.

So, exactly why is it that college kids get into trouble when they get their first credit card?

Mossy,

You must have grown up in a different world from me. My father started a savings account for all his kids when I was 8 yrs. old. He expected us to do jobs to add to our savings acct. and he was the legal guardian of those accts. We could not withdraw any money without his consent (and he rarely consented). I was not allowed a checking acc't until I graduated from high school. I paid for five years of college with the money I saved and/or worked to earn. Credit card companies didn't even want to look at you until your final month of your senior year. I didn't get a credit card until I was 26, married, owned a home and two cars.

I learned to cook over campfires while hunting with my dad, or in Boy Scouts. It was hard to transition some things into the kitchen. Like baking potatoes, etc.

Now that I think about it. You are right. I didn't learn to cook or balance a checkbook in school either. Boys took industrial arts and the girls all took home ec. I could have used help in money management, too. Dad would never let us invest into anything like stocks or bonds. Just straight savings.

[hejira11]

I would not trade my childhood for anything, but I would like to have learned more civics and money management. I have to give credit where it is due here. Our Government has done an uncharacteristly supurb job turning the majority of us into sheep. My parents are in their late 60's and they tell me they wish they knew at 43 what I know now.

Anyway, I guess this is off topic.... So I will just add, I am bullish on silver long term. Buying the dips and watching the fundamentals of our economy. Lets just say, If Ron Paul becomes president, and does 25% of what he wants to do. I MAY rethink my position

[Country]

Some good information included in the following link: http://www.investmentu.com/2011/April/p ... more-19331

Hard to tell where we are now. We have seen some euphoria, and have reached the anxiety and fear stages. Usually, it takes awhile on the curve before you reach the true capitulation and despondency stages. Capitualation is where MOST folks think the investment is only going lower and there is no hope left except to get out; cash out and get what you can for your investment. Despondency is a reflextion where folks believe that they were stupid ever getting involved in the investment and vow never to do it again. I don't think the market sentiment cycle curve has been fully played out yet for SILVER. However, while we have seen many of the attributes of the sentiment curve, I would say that we have not reached the true euphoria pinnacle whereby the common person has to have it, JPM capitulates on their short positions, and the government finally considers backing the currency with hard assets.

[beauanderos]

I believe we just went thru the cycle, the question now is at what stage we're at now? Hope? That we bottomed and may gradually consolidate and rise from this level? (I hope ) I think what Country says is true, but the height of the waves would account for what he describes... the magnitude of the sentiment will be much higher than currently experienced at that time. You can be certain that anyone who just hopped on board at $50 is now despondent, and the ones who used leverage (to get rich quick) and were forced to capitulate by margin calls (and got poorer quick) will be castigating themselves for a long time.

[Country]

IMHO, SILVER investors are moving down from the denial phase to the FEAR phase currently. We have to go through the additional phases of DESPARATION, PANIC, CAPITULATION, AND DESPONDENCY before SILVER bottoms. It may take awhile....

[Country]

Where are we now? Where are you on the Investor Sentiment Cycle?

[justoneguy]

CAPITULATION
or so it looks from where I sit.

[68Camaro]

I'm personally trying to stuff as much into my basket and get through the register before the owner realizes that the new stockboy mismarked all the product!

[beauanderos]

For those of us in for the long haul, you can reverse the graph. I am personally thrilled to be buying at these levels. On the other hand... I'm not selling

[cooyon]

For those of us in for the long haul, you can reverse the graph. I am personally thrilled to be buying at these levels. On the other hand... I'm not selling

+1
Amen, brother!