How i know silver has bottomed.

[neilgin1]

Posting has slowed to a crawl, indicating guys interest in Ag is at the back of their minds, or they have grown disheartened.

Please don't take offense.

This is merely an observation, and I believe it indicates how one views their Ag purchases, ie, "investment" or "currency insurance".

AND, I also realize that A. there is nothing to "talk" about, and B. the Ag market, (futures) has traded in a band for a while now.

Doc Rodee did point out that we are going lower, which is not out of the question, given that at any time, the duct tape and bailing wire holding the global economy could break. Seeing that NOTHING of any real consequence, policy wise, has been done since the "Lehman moment", the next "Lehman moment" will be twice as severe, and considering the absolutely bizarre nature of this 2016 election cycle, ( as evidenced by what we see, our fellow citizens are just ANGRY, and the two "sides" are filled with latent, and not so latent violence, God only knows what hellish happenings we will see as November draws nearer.) it would not be out of the question to see an equities sell off of 40 to 80%, which will drag every asset class, including PM's down. Then we could see the dreaded "bank holiday".....or a "bail-in" ala Cyprus.......and in the pond, there are too many "black swans" to count.

In short, we all live in the shadow of the Chinese curse, "may you live in interesting times", and if you don't have your stack where you want it.......consider your next move with sobriety, as there is a good chance any "dry powder" not held in hand may be inaccessible, or physical Ag might not be available.

"Wargaming" the future is as murky as canoeing thru "Jurassic World", in short.

last little ante dote: as many of you know, I live on a very rural ridge, on both Wed and Thursday, at 5PM, and the next day at 7PM, I had an unmarked gray C-130, with two large pods (fuel?) do a fast and loud "nape of the neck" hi speed, run, about 100 feet off the deck, right over my place. Of course, it could be a "normal" qual run, meaning there are many military aviation skills that are "perishable skills", requiring regular training exercises, to keep the skill to actually fly a 1,000 km's a hundred feet off the deck at max speed, something an aviator needs to consistently keep that skill set sharp. However it was slightly dismaying that the 130's in question were unmarked, no AF markings, no tail number...nothing.....and I might add, that during the summer of 15, the road thru our county seat of 4,000 souls, saw massive mil convoys headed up to a major training base about 75 km's from where I sit. This could all be REGULAR readiness exercises to maintain unit qualifications, but I never saw anything approaching the levels of activity.....so who knows?

all I know, i'm a tad uneasy, and at personal high alert. "Something" is in the wind, so batten your hatches brothers, rough seas ahead. fondly, n.

[pitw]

While I agree with you, it's amazing to watch the can being kicked down the road. Living a simple life away from the hustle still allows one to enjoy life without worrying too much.

[smalltimeopn]

Good post, especially in light of the continued lies like yesterday's "economic" news. Any reasoning individual can listen to that one single report and know that it does not make any logical sense (38k jobs created yet unemployment rate falls).

Add to this the staged protests at the political rallies, countries like Venezuela crumbling before our eyes and rampant corruption all around. I like everyone do not see how they continue to put another piece of tape on it and it seemingly holds together a while longer. We know what's coming, just not the precise timing and exact order of events or even the unforeseen events.

I don't post here much but I enjoy reading the wisdom of others very much. I had just read some eternal wisdom just before getting on here this morning so I felt like I would share Heb 13:5-6. Part of those verses say "the Lord is my helper, what can man do to me?" I continue to watch, prep, but most importantly trust.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

I had mentioned in another thread that posting activity has decreased here. Contrary activity?... maybe.

I maintain TPTB are going to continue to push the prices down until they completely lose control.

Buy when you can and while you still can.

[johnbrickner]

Probably should have put effort into this and made it a 10th Anniversary Essay for the contest but, my writing usually takes a spark from other RC members to make the flames of the written word come out of my fingers.

That's what I like about RC. There are many eyes open, ears listening, and antenna up. Awareness is high, both aimed towards the external for worldly information and the personal internal for that "gut" level or "ahah" moment of enlightenment and understanding. I also need to add a good grounding wire attached to the planet, country, community and a source of Power higher than our mortal existence. This last is most important as grounding keeps us all from shorting out early.

so what are we seeing now?:

<Quotage snipped and edited for writing style>

We are going lower; duct tape and bailing wire holding the global economy; seeing NOTHING of any real consequence policy wise; absolutely bizarre nature of this 2016 election cycle; our fellow citizens are just ANGRY and violent; there are too many "black swans" to count; I never saw anything approaching the(se) levels of (mil) activity.....; I'm at personal high alert;

the can being kicked down the road;

continued lies like yesterday's "economic" news (38k jobs created yet unemployment rate falls [over 500,000 off the unemployment rolls and stopped looking for work]); staged protests at the political rallies; Venezuela crumbling before our eyes; rampant corruption all around;

It is these words I expand on:

We all live in the shadow of the Chinese curse; "Wargaming" the future is as murky as canoeing thru "Jurassic World" ;

The war game chess board is seeing moves in the south China Sea. Late April of last year the US and Japan agreed to update our military agreement. In April of this year Japan became the world's #8 in military spending.

In March of this year, the chief of the United States Pacific Command (Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr.,) proposed an informal strategic coalition made up of the navies of Japan, Australia, India and the United States. Also in March, South Korea began negotiations to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system designed to shoot down short, medium and intermediate ballistic missiles.

In April of this year, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter paid his third visit to India. Discussed were a series of defense cooperation, technology sharing, and research and co-production related agreements to include sharing aircraft carrier catapult-launch technology and design capabilities and upgraded maritime dialogues, including on anti-submarine operations at the official 2+2 and officer-to-officer level.

It should be noted the India is playing both sides of the coin as in Feb. of this year it inaugurated, and institutionalized, a mid-level Maritime Affairs Dialogue with China and later this year will hold a first-ever, stand-alone ministerial-level consultation on the security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region with both China and Russia.

On the 23rd of May, our President (I can't get myself to type his name) announced the US will fully lift a longstanding U.S. embargo on lethal arms sales to Vietnam. On the 26th of May, Beijing announced it poised to send nuclear submarines into the Pacific. It is purported Hainan island in the South China Sea has a base for four of China's Jin-Class ballistic missile submarines with a fifth under construction.

Hainan is just north of the Paracel, Scarborough, and Spratly Islands claimed by (partly or by all) China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.

It should be noted this is an ongoing dialog. See viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23295&p=217215&hilit=China+navy#p217215

and here listing articles going back to 2005 warning of the China Naval Build Up: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=23295&p=217215&hilit=China%27s+navy+build+up#p217215

[Rodebaugh]

Neil, just a few random thoughts:

Technicals, that chart stuff that makes my skin craw and eyes cross, point to a bull market in development........or at least a normalized band of 14-18 average price continuing forward.

The global/us economic environment is a mixed bag. Negative interest rates make holding wealth outside of cash very appealing....real estate, durables, ect. Albeit even with all that QE4EVA and gluttonous corporate welfare pumping trillions into the wealth debt pool....the dollar is still loosing the race to the bottom to other currency stinkers. Rates are going no where meaningful (up) anytime soon. Election cycle brings uncertainty and potential massive instability.

conclusion: I'm a sideways bull....price target $25 18-24 months out.

Disclaimer: I called the top, I called the bottom, now I'm calling the middle......and even a blind hog will find an acorn from time to time.

[68Camaro]

With the exception of the Hunt manipulation of 1980 silver has only hit 25 on the way up once. Given that we don't seem to have real price discovery, I wonder what that hog will be thinking when he finds that acorn - where does he go for the next acorn.

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Neil, just a few random thoughts:

Technicals, that chart stuff that makes my skin craw and eyes cross, point to a bull market in development........or at least a normalized band of 14-18 average price continuing forward.

The global/us economic environment is a mixed bag. Negative interest rates make holding wealth outside of cash very appealing....real estate, durables, ect. Albeit even with all that QE4EVA and gluttonous corporate welfare pumping trillions into the wealth debt pool....the dollar is still loosing the race to the bottom to other currency stinkers. Rates are going no where meaningful (up) anytime soon. Election cycle brings uncertainty and potential massive instability.

conclusion: I'm a sideways bull....price target $25 18-24 months out.

Disclaimer: I called the top, I called the bottom, now I'm calling the middle......and even a blind hog will find an acorn from time to time.

I tend to agree.... unless something really bad happens.

[neilgin1]

I tend to agree.... unless something really bad happens.

[aloneibreak]

conclusion: I'm a sideways bull....price target $25 18-24 months out.

careful around that $25 handle, Barry --- err I mean doc

[Rodebaugh]

conclusion: I'm a sideways bull....price target $25 18-24 months out.

careful around that $25 handle, Barry --- err I mean doc

No kidding.....we all gave Barry a hard time for that one. It was great! He's a good fella and deserved nothing less.

Put my money where my typing is and added 25 kilos today.

[tdtwedt]

Put my money where my typing is and added 25 kilos today.

[AlexTG]

Always reading and looking for the next deal to show up on the market that I just can't resist. But I hardly ever have anything to add to the conversation so choose to just watch from the sidelines. You guys got me hooked about a decade ago now and the itch will never fully be scratched.

[pennypicker]

Put my money where my typing is and added 25 kilos today.

The day before a 60 cent spike in silver...talk about nice timing. Great buy!

[neilgin1]

No kidding.....we all gave Barry a hard time for that one. It was great! He's a good fella and deserved nothing less.

Put my money where my typing is and added 25 kilos today.

HOLY SAMOLY!!! Doc, I had to cyber convert, and I did the conversion (hopefully) but 25 kilo's is a titch over 803 toz?

whoa! nice......Doc, lemme ask you a question, and anybody that reads at large, is there a reference book available, say over Amazon, that would help do conversions, say like I just did cyber wise.....1 kilogram equals x amount of troy ounces.

i'm going to go to amazon, and fumble around, but I sure would like to know what the most comprehensive weight conversion, and various weights themselves are.

btw, in my small way, I just slunk onto fleabay and bought a $10 FV roll of 49 Franks, circs for 15 times....just filling out the edges, for my income level, my stack is more than fine, as i'm exploring different forms of "currency".....one of them is, since I don't drink alkihol, I been buying cases of half pints of vodka, and storing them in the bunker, if we go post dollar, that might be a sought after item for trade, etc etc .......Hope you and all who see this post are well, healthy, blessed and whole, n.

[Rodebaugh]

Put my money where my typing is and added 25 kilos today.

The day before a 60 cent spike in silver...talk about nice timing. Great buy!

Just like that hog I was talking about earlier. you don't need to be good....just lucky.

Neil I go as grams to troy oz. That is easiest for me.

31.1g = 1troy
1kilo = 1000g = 32.15toz
So 25kilo is 25000g / 31.1gpertroyoz = 803.75

[neilgin1]

God love you Doc Rodee, neil

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Looking good today Billy Ray...

[Cu Penny Hoarder]

Ugly reversal in PMs today.

Thou shall not let gold close above $1300.

[68Camaro]

Yep, the dropped big from the day high, but relative to "feeling good", only down 1.1% on gold and 1.8% on silver. We didn't think they were going to go down with just a whimper did we? They are manipulating the currency rates to do a lot of this - up and down.

This won't be the last smack down either, but eventually there will be a final one. But the events that follow the final smack down will likely change society. I'm not looking forward to that because I feel like no matter how "prepared" I think I am, I will have forgotten something that will later prove to be a problem.

[everything]

I think it's just summertime. Economies are rolling along great giving money away, this is probably going to go on for awhile is my guess. Problem is .. things are expensive, we are so used to it now. I do know in my city we are having a homelessness problem. Feminism has taken it's toll too, lots of single women with kids have the homeless problem, I see more women on the street now, used to be more of a man thing, if you got kids though they'll find you a place, so .. it's self perpetuating thing I'm sure.

[Zincanator]

At a one-year high motha scratchas!