Is "Sell in May & go away" in effect this year?

[JJM]

Curious as to whether I should dump my PSLV now or wait 'til later.... It's been *many* years since we had a run up in metals over the summer. It kind of seems like this could be another year for it to move up, but I'm not a very good predictor of future behavior..... (even my own!) Curious as to what others think.

Cheers to all!

[Tourney64]

If the proposed spending that the democrats are trying to push thru happens, then the dollar will fall significantly. This will also hurt the economy, so there will be less demand for silver for industrial purposes. Europe takes the summer off, which impacts silver in those months. I think selling now would be fine, and stacking gold.

[Recyclersteve]

Several thoughts...

GENERALLY, the stock market underperforms from May thru October and outperforms from November through April. If you go back over 30-40 years using the web or a publication like the Stock Trader’s Almanac, you will see the difference is pretty significant.

That said, silver had a HUGE BREAKOUT in Summer, 2010 and went on to a high of close to $50 in Spring, 2011. It first started going down on the very day they said they killed Osama bin Laden and dumped his body at sea- I bet conspiracy theory advocates loved that!

Also, silver had a big upward move last year, more than doubling from the COVID induced roughly mid-March low to early August.

So trying to really figure it out is extremely difficult at best.

Think about it this way. If you can work to get to a point where you can honestly say “I don’t care whether it goes up or down, I can make money either way.”- then you will have a big advantage over the masses. And, no, you don’t have to be a billionaire to do that. With almost 20 years in the financial business (I was a stock broker and day trader) I have spoken to many many people about their trading strategies. Probably about 1-2% of the time I was wowed with how well thought out some of the strategies were. Some of the stuff I do even today is based on tips I got from others that were adapted to suit my needs.

If this piques your curiosity, please don’t expect me to tell you everything I know on a website for free. I’ve got bills to pay and still need to earn money for expenses. No offense, but it is a very poor use of my time to spend lots of time crafting long messages like this. I believe in paying it forward, but I still have limits.

That said, if you really are hungry for info, others and I said plenty before on this site. Spend some serious time digging into the archives on this site. Bookmark topics that have good info for review at a later date. You have LOTS of info available here. You just have to be willing to dig deep to find it.

The fact that you know about the “Sell in May” phenomenon is a good start for you! Good luck!

[JJM]

Thanks for weighing in guys, appreciated!

Still "hodling" my PSLV, cautiously looking for an exit sign...

[68Camaro]

Unless you need the cash, I think this is too weird of a year to try to outwit JP Morgan. Hold and watch it go up. Just my 2 cents.

[Recyclersteve]

I mentioned in my earlier post on this thread that silver did well in the summer of 2010, when it broke out on the way to a nearly $50 price by Spring 2011.

It may be hard to find good charts going back to summer of 1979, but silver had a nice run then before peaking in January, 1980. Those two events plus the nice move last summer are 3 times where the adage “Sell in May and go away” didn’t apply.